Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, Contest Corner, Tuesday NHL best bet (1/4)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 4, 2022 02:07 AM

On Monday, we ended up with what we call a split result here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

We won our best bet on the Steelers + 3 from last week’s Point Spread Weekly, but lost our two-team, 6-point teaser on the Browns + 8/Under 48 that we posted in this column yesterday. It looked like we were going to cash both bets when the Browns pulled with 13-7 late in the third quarter and then – after the Steelers added two FGs to go up 19-7 – again when the Browns pulled within 19-14 with just 1:10 to play. After the Steelers recovered the onside kick, all we needed was one first down and for the Steelers to go into victory formation. However, Pittsburgh RB Najee Harris took the handoff on third-and-short and picked up the first down but then kept on going for a 37-yard TD run to made the ending of Ben Roethlisberger’s last home game at Heinz Field pretty cool to watch but killed our teaser with the Steelers’ 26-14 victory. I would do it again as it was worth the risk to nearly middle our bets.

We have a lot to recap from Monday, including updating the contest leaderboards at Circa, the Westgate and even the Golden Nugget, and then we’re going to return to the ice to try to hit a hockey bet.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Steelers beat Browns 26-14 on #MNF to wrap up #NFL Week 17 after closing as 1-point home dogs (stayed Under 43.5); faves went 12-4 SU in Week 17 and 8-7-1 ATS; home teams went 11-5 SU but even better at 13-2-1 ATS; Unders went 10-6 w/ primetime Over/Unders splitting 1-1.

More NFL: faves 158-92-1 SU on season w/ 5 PKs, but dogs lead 129-119-3 ATS (52%); home teams took 128-124-1 SU lead w/ 3 neutral-site games but road teams still lead 133-117-3 ATS (53.2%); Unders improved to 141-113-2 (55.5%) while primetime Unders lead 29-22-1.

CBB: No. 23 Wisconsin upset No. 3 Purdue 74-69 as 12.5-point road underdog and 555 on money line (went Over betting total of 139.5); No. 8 Arizona beat Washington 95-79, but did NOT cover as 24.5-point home favorite (went Over 153).

NBA: Faves went 6-4 SU on Monday but dogs led 6-4 ATS as the Magic (+ 14 at Bulls) and Heat (+ 10.5 at Warriors) covered in SU losses. The upsets were by the Grizzlies (+ 6.5 at Nets), Pistons (+ 17 at Bucks), Blazers (+ 4 vs. Hawks) and Timberwolves (+ 3.5 at Clippers). Over/Unders split 5-5.

NHL: No. 23 Wisconsin upset No. 3 Purdue 74-69 as a 12.5-point road underdog and + 555 on the money line as the game went Over the betting total of 139.5). No. 8 Arizona beat Washington 95-79, but did NOT cover as 24.5-point home favorite as the game went Over 153.

Contest Corner

HANNIBAL BARCA-1 still leads Circa Sports Million at 60-24-1 (71.4 percent), but DURBIFY-1 won with the Steelers + 3.5 on Monday Night Football to improve to 60-25 (70.6 percent) and half a point behind with 1 week to go. Amazingly, HANNIBAL BARCA-2 (who was in 2nd place after Sunday’s action) is in 3rd place with 59.5 points and DURBIFY-2 is in 4th with 59 points as the two contestants are in sole possession of the Top 4 spots in the standings.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 4-1 in Week 17 (47-38 on season) with Steelers + 3.5 joining Packers -7 (top pick as the line out in the “real world” went to -13 after the contest line was locked in on Thursday morning), Titans -3 and Cardinals + 6 as wins. The lone loss was the Rams -3.5.

SuperContest leader LITOFSKY CLAN went 2-3 in NFL Week 17 but still leads at 57-26-2 (68.7 percent). With Steelers + winning on Monday Night Football, NOMSNAIGANSKK pulled within half a point of the lead at 57-27-1 (67.9 percent). XERRI 1 and CHUNG CHUNG are tied for 3rd place at 57-28 (67.1 percent). 

ICYMI: CALABASAS WISE GUY clinched the $435,000, winner-take-all SuperContest Gold title at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on Sunday. SC Gold is the $5,000 version of the SuperContest (which costs $1,000 to enter) and has a winner-take-all prize. CALABASAS WISE GUY was just 2-3 in Week 17 but increased his point total to 58 points (on a record of 57-26-2, 69.5 percent) and no one else out of the 87 entrants was within 5 points of him with 1 week and 5 picks to go.

The Ultimate Football Challenge at the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas has a new leader as ACCORSI went 7-0 in Week 17 to improve to 72-46-1 (61 percent) and take the lead with 72.5 points. Note: The UFC uses 7 picks a week on CFB and NFL sides. CRIMSONTIDESUPERFAN and former leader BUCKNUTS are tied for 2nd place with 72 points heading into the final week of the contest.

Tuesday’s Take

Avalanche-Blackhawks First-Period Over 1.5 -130: I know regular readers aren’t used to me laying juice of any kind, but I’m sticking with this as my play of the day (for those who want to turn this bet into a “dog” with plus-money, you can parlay with other First-Period Overs I considered: Hurricanes-Panthers 1P Over 1.5 -140 or Lightning-Blue Jackets 1P Over 1.5 -115). What I like best about this play is that the Avalanche are 19-9 with First-Period Overs this season (all stats are from @PSUOttto on Twitter) with the Blackhawks at 17-15, so that’s a combined 36-24 (60 percent) when -130 just needs 56.5 percent to break even. These lines are from William Hill as of late Monday night, so I’ll update my recommended play if they’re much different around noon PT on Tuesday.


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