Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, Contest Corner, Tuesday best bet (12/28)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 28, 2021 03:17 AM

Monday wasn’t the best day in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

We lost early with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl (jumped out to a 3-0 lead, then gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown and it was all downhill from there) and late with the Saints on Monday Night Football, including our live teasers to them at + 8.5 as they lost 20-3 to the Dolphins.

But we can’t complain too much as we’re still 11-4 ATS with our bowl bets so far (and still leading several contests) and pretty much broke even with our NFL best bets and teasers.

Before finding a best bet for Tuesday, let’s recap Monday’s betting action, including updating the leaderboards in the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest as well as the Top 5 consensus records.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Dolphins (-3) covered in a 20-3 win at the Saints on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 16 as the game stayed way Under the low total of 37.5 points. Faves went 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS on the week with 2 games closing pick-'em (Bills-Patriots and Broncos-Raiders). Home teams dipped to 10-6 SU and 8-8 ATS on the week. Overs dipped to 9-7.

More NFL: Faves are 146-88-1 SU on the season with 5 PKs, but dogs still lead 122-111-2 ATS (52.4 percent). Road teams lead 119-117-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games and 131-104-2 ATS (55.7 percent). Unders improved to 131-107-2 (55 percent) while primetime Unders improved to 28-21-1 after a 1-8 start.

CFB: Western Michigan (-7) covered in a 52-24 win over Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl as it flew Over the betting total of 57. Faves are now 11-5 SU this bowl season with 1 pick-'em (Western Kentucky-Appalachian State) while faves and dogs are now tied at 8-8 ATS with that 1 PK (faves are 5-3 ATS since an 0-5 start). Overs improved to 11-6.

NBA: Faves went 4-3 SU on Monday, but dogs led 4-3 ATS thanks to the Spurs (+ 7) covering in a 110-104 home loss to the Jazz. Upsets were by the Grizzlies (+ 7.5 at Suns), Timberwolves (+ 5 vs. Celtics) and the Mavericks (+ 3 at Blazers). Overs went 4-3.

CBB: No Top 25 teams were in action on Monday night. In fact, the only game on the betting board was Syracuse (-9.5) covering in a 93-62 home rout of Brown as both teams were playing their first game in more than two weeks.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in Week 16 (43-37 on the season) as Dolphins PK at Saints on Monday Night Football joined the Bengals -3 vs. the Steelers and Bills + 2 at the Patriots as winners. Losses were the Cardinals + 1 vs. the Colts and Packers -7 vs. the Browns. 

Circa Sports Million leader HANNIBAL BARCA-1 went 2-3 in Week 16 but still leads at 57-23 (71.3 percent) with 2 weeks to go. He also has another entry, HANNIBAL BARCA-2, that is in a 3-way tie for 2nd place at 56-24 (70 percent) with DURBIFY-1 and MFC INC-1. Meanwhile, DURBIFY-2 is in a 3-way tie for 5th at 55-25 (68.8 percent) with JJarvis 117 and Mad Russian. It’s going to be a great race to the finish!

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in Week 16 (37-42-1 on the season) with Dolphins + 3 on MNF joining Bengals -2.5 and Bills + 2.5 as winners. Losers were Cardinals -1 and Chargers -10. SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 3-3 on the week (44-38-2 on the season) with the Dolphins winning on MNF. Broncos pick-’em and Washington + 11 (which both lost) were tied as the No. 5 pick and account for the extra game in Week 16 and that’s why there’s 4 extra games in Gold’s year-long record for the Top 5.

SuperContest leader LITOFSKY CLAN went 5-0 in Week 16 to improve to 55-23-2 (70.5 percent) and now has a 2.5-point lead over NOMSNAIGANSKK in 2nd place at 53-26-1 (67.1 percent). Defending champion ODBMG is in a 4-way tie for 3rd place at 53-27 (66.3 percent). SuperContest Gold leader CALABASAS WISE GUY went 5-0 in Week 16 and improved to 55-23-2 (70.5 percent) and has a 7.5-point lead with 10 picks to go.

ICYMI on Sunday: Circa Survivor is down to 5 live entries playing for the $6 million guaranteed prize pool as 4 were eliminated with the Chargers' 41-29 loss at the Texans on Sunday as contestants had to submit a Week 16 Sunday/Monday play by 9 a.m. PT Sunday after surviving “Christmas Week” that just included Thursday and Saturday’s games. There were 3 that advanced with the Eagles and 2 on the Falcons (who also survived a scare), including RETURN OF SURVIVOR-5, who would have won the whole thing on Saturday if the Packers had lost to the Browns.

Tuesday’s Take

Texas Tech + 10 vs. Mississippi State: This didn’t originally make the cut for my best bets that I posted in the VSiN College Bowl Betting Guide (or in last week’s Point Spread Weekly), but with my hot start in the bowls I’ve been having friends and readers asking me for my opinions on other games. On Tuesday’s schedule, I actually lean to the chalk as the right side with Auburn, Louisville and Minnesota (and using those in my all contests) and also to UCLA as a short underdog, but the only game I’ve actually bet is Texas Tech + 10 as I made the line Mississippi State -7. It’s true that Texas Tech has lost four of its last five games to stumble into bowl season, but most teams would struggle with a late-season schedule of Kansas State. Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Bayor! In addition to upsetting Iowa State as a 13-point dog, the Red Raiders went 2-2-1 ATS in this stretch as they were competitive but just unable to knock off these top programs. I’m not betting the money line like I usually do with my bowl dogs, but I expect Texas Tech to stay within one score.

Happy holidays to all of our readers

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