Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, 2 for Tuesday football picks (12/21)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 21, 2021 05:22 AM
San_Diego_State

Monday was a pretty good day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we had a bowl game in addition to two NFL games.

And it was made even better when we hit our best bet of the day. It was originally posted in this column early Monday morning as the Raiders + 9 with the Vikings -0.5, then I woke up late Monday morning to find out that the line had flipped to the Raiders favored by 2-5 to 3 points, so I updated the file and Tweeted that we were recommending the Browns + 8.5 or 9 as the preferred play. We also added the caveat that there was a good chance that it would cash no matter which way you played it and proved prophetic as the Raiders beat the Browns 16-14 on a field goal as time expired and would have still covered the teaser both ways if the late score had been a TD either way.

The Vikings completed the winning teaser by beating the Bears 17-9 in the nightcap. Earlier in the day, we didn’t bet on Tulsa (a favorite of between -7.5 and -9.5) but did use the Golden Hurricanes to improve to 7-1 ATS on the VSiN CFB Consensus page in last week’s Point Spread Weekly and help keep me in the lead of several bowl contests.

Before we get to Tuesday’s best bet, let’s recap Monday’s betting action, including a peek into Contest Corner.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Vikings beat the Bears 17-9 in the regularly scheduled Monday Night Football game. The Vikings covered as 7-point road favorites, but the Bears were driving late to give hope to those hoping for a back-door push or cover if the Bears were to score a TD and get a 2-point conversion. The Bears scored a TD on the game’s final play, but then there was no conversion of any type attempted as the rule was changed in 2018 that says no conversion is to be attempted if the score isn't within 2 points. The game stayed way Under the betting total of 47.5. Earlier Monday in a game that was postponed from Sunday, the Raiders (-2.5) beat the Browns 16-14 on a field goal as time expired but did NOT cover the closing line. This game also stayed Under 41.5. Faves went 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS on the day, road teams were 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS while Unders were 2-0. Faves are 10-4 SU and 7-7 ATS in Week 15 with two games to be played Tuesday, road teams are 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS while Unders lead 10-4. 

More NFL: Faves are now 134-84-1 SU on the season with 3 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs still lead 116-102-1 ATS (53.2 percent). Road teams are 113-105-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games and also lead 123-95-1 ATS (56.4 percent). Unders improved to 123-97-2 (55.9 percent) while primetime Unders are 25-20-1.

CFB: Tulsa (-7.5) covered in a 30-17 win over Old Dominion earlier Monday in the Myrtle Beach Bowl as the game stayed Under 55 points. Faves 5-4 are SU so far in bowls with 1 game closing pick-'em (Western Kentucky-Appalachian State), but dogs lead 6-3 ATS. Overs dipped to 7-3.

NBA: Faves and dogs split 3-3 SU on Monday, but dogs led 4-2 ATS as the Hornets (+ 12.5) covered in a 112-102 loss at the Jazz. The upsets were by the 76ers (+ 2.5 at Celtics), Thunder (+ 9 at Grizzlies) and Spurs (+ 6 at Clippers). The Bulls (-7) and Warriors (-13.5) covered as chalk. Unders went 5-1. Dogs improved to 75-61-2 ATS (55.1 percent) so far in December with 1 game closing pick-’em. Overs dipped to 74-63-2 (54 percent) in December, cutting Unders' lead on the season, though Unders did improve back to 241-211-6 (53.3 percent) with Monday's 5-1 mark.

CBB: No. 1 Baylor (-34.5) routed Alcorn State 94-57, No. 3 Purdue (-39.5) routed Incarnate Word 79-59 and No. 4 Gonzaga (-35) routed Northern Arizona 95-49 as Baylor and Gonzaga both covered their huge spreads but Purdue did not.

NHL: Stars beat the Wild 7-4 Monday night in a game that closed pick-'em and flew Over the total of 5.5 goals). This was the only game of the night as 4 were postponed due to COVID-19 concerns. The NHL also announced that it would suspend the season starting Wednesday until after the Christmas break .

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor, with $6 million on the line, has 16 live entries heading into "Christmas Week" (which includes Thursday and Saturday games only) after the Vikings won for the last survivor in Week 15. Eliminated in Week 15 were those that used the Cardinals (5), Jaguars (1) and Buccaneers (1). Those advancing used the Dolphins (12), who had to sweat before pulling out a 31-24 victory, the 49ers (3) and the Vikings (1).

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 4-1 in Week 15 (improving to 40-35 on the season) with the Vikings -3.5 covering on Monday Night Football to join the Colts -2, Bills -10.5 and Steelers pick-'em as winner. The only loss was by the No. 1 choice, Packers -5 at the Ravens in a 31-30 .

SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 3-2 in Week 15 (41-35-2 on the season). On Monday, Vikings -4 joined Steelers + 1.5 and Colts -2.5 as winners and Browns + 1.5 joined Packers -5.5 as losers. The SuperContest Classic Top 5 wrapped up its 3-2 record on Week 15 on Sunday (34-40-1 on the season).

Tuesday’s Takes

San Diego State + 2.5 vs. Texas-San Antonio: This line is up to 3 at several books, so definitely shop for the best number no matter which side you’re playing.

Washington Football Team + 5 at Eagles: This wasn’t my strongest play in PSW last week before WFT had COVID-19 issues and this game was moved from Sunday to Tuesday, but I’m still looking to bet it even if Garrett Gilbert has to start. The line is at Eagles -6.5 as of early Tuesday morning though some 7’s have popped up offshore, so again shop for the best number no matter which side you’re playing.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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