Monday was an interesting day as I didn’t get to spend much time in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
I had to get up early (6:15 a.m. PT) to take my son Maddux to the bus stop for the first day of 8th grade – and then had to drive him to school as the bus was running an hour late (typical of the first week in the Clark County School District). After taking a nap, I mostly did some chores and errands before having to pick Maddux up after school, take him to McDonald’s and then to Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice. I then went to the D to register for a slot tournament the next two days and then took Maddux back home.
While downtown, I went to Circa and watched the Orioles cash our secondary play of the day on the 1st 5 + 120 as they led the Blue Jays 5-1 after the first 5 innings on the way to a 7-4 victory. When I returned home, I was able to watch the Angels win as our Best Bet of the day with the 1st 5 + 110 as they led the A’s 1-0 after 5 innings and that was also the final score.
So, the second sweep of our 1st 5 bets in the last 3 days (with an 0-2 day in between).
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more 1st 5 inning opportunities on Tuesday’s MLB card, plus we have an early NFL preseason game that we gave out on “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night and in yesterday’s column.
Monday’s recaps
MLB: Faves went 4-3 as Yankees (short -110 chalk) beat Mariners 9-4 late Monday to snap their 5-game losing streak. The upsets were by the Giants (+ 160 in 1-0 win at Padres), Angels (+ 119 in 1-0 win at A's) and Orioles (+ 116 in 7-4 win vs. Blue Jays). Home teams went 4-3; Unders 4-3.
More MLB: Faves lead 967-644 SU (60 percent) on the season with 25 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back at 60 percent). Home teams lead just 861-775 (52.6 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders now lead 802-751-80 (51.6 percent).
Tuesday’s Takes
Rangers 1st 5 + 125 at Astros: I have two decent-priced dogs I like on Tuesday led by the Rangers with starting pitcher Martin Perez (9-2, 2.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) against the Astros. The Rangers aren’t very good, but Perez gives them a chance as they’re also 15-6 overall in his starts. And then last time he faced these Astros was May 20 when he threw a complete-game, 7-hit shutout. We don’t need him to go the distance again, just shut down the Astros for the first 5 innings. As for our second pick, we won with the Angels on Monday, but we feel the value is on the A’s on Tuesday with James Kaprielian facing Shohei Ohtani. We’ve faded Ohtani successfully lately (he’s 0-3 in his last 3 starts) and have been on Kaprielian, who we saw pitch in person in Oakland last month and wrote he was underrated. He’s 2-0 in his last 3 starts (A’s are 3-0 in those starts) with a 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP). The A’s are an overlay at or around 1st 5 + 150.
Thursday: Patriots + 1.5 vs. the Giants: This game kicks off the NFL Preseason Week 1. We’ll add more picks during the week as we hear from more coaches on their QB rotations and how long starters might be playing (note: following my lead of shortening baseball games with 1st 5 wagers, I might be betting more 1st halves this preseason). We shall see. Anyway, Belichick is 49-36 ATS (57.6 percent) in preseason games so he knows how to prepare for these while the Giants’ Brian Daboll has his first head coaching job. In addition, Daboll has already forbidden taping of his practices, so we don’t expect him to show much in the preseason games.
Good luck today (and every day!).