Tuley's Takes Today: Monday betting recaps, updated MLB stats, Tuesday Best Bets 8/2

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Zac_Gallen

Let’s not bury the lead: Happy birthday to me!

That’s right, 56 years ago on this day in 1966, I was born in the Chicago suburb of Winfield, Ill., on the 190th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. July 4 gets all the accolades and fireworks, but that was just the day the authors agreed on the final edits. It wasn’t officially signed by most of the “signers” until Aug. 2. See, we can still learn something new every day.

Back to Monday, I spent part of the day at the dentist (early birthday present of no cavities and no receding gum line) and the rest reminding my family of my upcoming birthday. My wife was born on the Ides of March, one kid has a b-day on April Fool’s Day, one is on May Day, and one is the first week of June and usually coincides with school letting out for the summer. But daddy’s birthday is easy to forget in the dog days of summer.

Unfortunately, the day ended with the Giants letting me down with my play of the day as they trailed 6-2 after the first 5 innings vs. the Dodgers. However, I again came out ahead on the day with my MLB bets as we cashed for the second day in the row on the Royals as they were + 140 on the 1st 5-inning line at the White Sox and led 1-0 on the way to a 2-1 victory on the full-game money line at + 150. Cha-ching!

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more 1st 5 inning opportunities on Tuesday’s card when we will hopefully have some birthday luck.

Monday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 6-4 with the upsets by the Orioles (+ 159 in 7-2 win at Rangers), Red Sox (+ 156 in 3-2 win at Astros), Royals (+ 150 in 2-1 win at White Sox) and Reds (+ 105 in 3-1 win at Marlins). Road teams went 6-4. Over/Unders split 4-4-2 with pushes in SEA-NYY (9) and DET-MIN (8).

More MLB: Faves lead 912-603 SU (60.2 percent) on the season with 25 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead just 805-735 (52.3 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 761-705-72 (51.9 percent).

Tuesday’s Takes

Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 105 or better at Guardians: We get the D-backs with Zac Gallen (5-2, 3.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), though I wouldn’t be surprised by a Push like we’ve had with a lot of our recent Best Bets as I could easily see a 0-0 or 1-1 tie after 5 innings. For our secondary play (and I almost made this my Best Bet, but we’ve been having so much success with these that I admit I’m being a little superstitious), we’ll go with the Royals for the third straight day since they’ve cashed big for us twice in a row. While we’re grateful for the Royals coming through for us, this is just as much a bet against Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (6-6, 5.14 ERA, 1.48 WHIP). With the Royals between + 140 and + 150 on the overnight game money line, we’re hoping for at least Royals + 130 for the 1st 5.

Thursday: Raiders-Jaguars Over 32.5 (now 30.5): I posted this Monday after giving it out on "The Lookahead" show on Sunday night. I'm usually an "Under or pass" guy with NFL preseason games, but since Unders have had so much success in recent years (especially with less time for offenses to prepare and get in sync), we believe this total has been shaded a little too low. Now, I gave it out on the show and in this column at Over 32.5, but as you can see everyone is jumping all the Under as it’s now down to 30.5 as of early Tuesday morning. This only makes me like the bet more as we’re being contrarian to the line move. I'm not going nuts, but I think there's value with Josh Daniels obviously emphasizing offense and some quality backup QBs. I doubt we'll see much from Derek Carr and Trevor Lawrence, but wouldn't mind seeing former 49ers Nick Mullens (Raiders) and C.J. Beathard (Jaguars) get quality time.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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