Tuley's Takes Today: Monday betting recaps, Tuesday top play again in NBA 4/19

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

April 19, 2022 06:07 AM

Monday was another looooong day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we were wrapping up our taxes and then taking in the full sports betting menu. Again, we apologize for the late posting this morning as we crashed hard again after Tweeting out the betting results.

But we were wide awake earlier as we again hit our Best Bet on the Mavericks + vs. the Jazz as they not only covered but won outright to even their NBA first-round series at 1-1 while waiting for Luka Doncic to return. We also improved to 42-22-1 ATS (65.6 percent) with our top play of the day the past 65 days.

As discussed on “The Lookahead” show with Scott Seidenberg on Sunday night and in this column on Monday morning, the Mavs were a “zig-zag theory” play (aka the “loser of the last theory” as it says to bet the SU loser of the previous against the spread in the next game). As we also stressed, this isn’t as strong as it used to be and, in fact, it went just 1-2 ATS on Monday with the Raptors and Nuggets failing to bounce back and cover in their Game 2s at the 76ers and Warriors, but we’re proud that we made the Mavs our Best Bet while advising to stay away from the other two. That’s what we mean about being selective with these plays! We hope we can be successful sifting out the weak plays.

We also finished 3-1 with Unders on the USFL opening weekend as we hit our third straight play there, though we lost an added play on the Maulers + 6 in their 17-3 loss to the Bandits. We also lost with the Angels + 140 at the Astros in an 8-3 loss and split (thus lost) our parlay on the Capitals-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 -165 (WIN) and Devils-Golden Knights 1P Over 1.5 -155 (LOSS).

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action and try to keep winning with our Best Bet of the day but get back on the winning track with the rest of our plays.


Monday’s recaps


NBA: Faves went 2-1 SU and ATS as 76ers (-7.5 in 112-97 win vs. Raptors and Warriors (-7 in 126-106 win vs. Nuggets) covered as both took 2-0 leads in their first-round series. The upset was by the Mavericks (+ 5 in 110-104 win vs. Jazz) to even their series at 1-1. Home teams went 3-0 SU and ATS on the night. Overs 2-1. The "zigzag theory" (betting the previous game's SU loser against the spread in the next game) went 1-2 ATS Monday with Mavericks winning while Raptors and Nuggets lost. The good news is Dallas was our Best Bet and we advised passing on Toronto and Denver.


More NBA: Faves went 2-1 SU Monday, but still lead 9-2 SU in 1st round and are 7-4 ATS (including play-in tournament, faves are 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS). Home teams are also 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS this round. Overs lead 6-5 this round after Unders went 6-0 in the play-in tournament.


USFL: Bandits beat Maulers 17-3 to wrap up Week 1, covering as 5.5-point favorites as the game stayed way Under the betting total of 41.5). Faves went 3-1 SU and ATS on opening weekend with the lone upset by the Gamblers (+ 3.5) over the Panthers. Unders also went 3-1 (last 3 games stayed Under).


MLB: Faves went 5-3 with the upsets by the Twins (+ 127 in 8-3 early Patriots' Day win at Red Sox), Cubs (+ 127 in 4-2 win vs. Rays) and Rockies (+ 145 in 4-1 win vs. Phillies). The 5 winning faves (Astros, A's, Brewers, Padres and Dodgers) also covered on -1.5 run line. Unders 5-3.


More MLB: Faves 88-60 SU on the young season (59.5 percent, right around historical averages) with 2 games closing pick-'em. Home teams went 7-1 on Monday (17-5 the last 2 days) to increase slim lead to 80-70 over road teams, which led 65-63 just 2 days ago. Unders lead 81-59-10 (57.9 percent).


NHL: Faves went 3-2 with Stars-Canucks closing consensus pick-'em. The upsets were by the Devils (+ 270 in 3-2 win at Golden Knights) and Capitals (+ 165 in 3-2 win at Avalanche). Overs went 3-2-1 with the push in the Kraken's 4-2 win vs. the Senators in game with betting total of 6.


Tuesday’s Takes


Hawks + 7.5 at Heat: We’re landing on this as our Best Bet of the day on Tuesday and our preferred “zig-zag” play instead of the Grizzlies -7 (after losing opener to the Timberwolves) or Pelicans + 9.5 at the Suns. The Hawks were blown out by the Heat in Game 1, but that was a tough spot after coming out of the play-in tournament and I’m expecting Trae Young to at least keep this close.


NHL 1P Overs: For those still playing these, we’re just going with another parlay using the Wild-Canadiens 1P Over -175 and Panthers-Islanders 1P Over -170 (pays around 3-2 or + 150 as a money line).


MLB underdogs: These have also been cold lately, but give me the Blue Jays + 125 at the Red Sox, plus I’m considering a smaller play on the Giants + 110 in Game 2 of their doubleheader at the Mets, though the price is short with Webb vs. Scherzer.


Good luck today (and every day!).



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