And on the seventh day, I rested.
After the “First Four” games on Tuesday and Wednesday (which were also the days I did most of my writing for Point Spread Weekly and the VSiN.com website) and then all the regular 4 days of March Madness on Thursday through Sunday, I l took not 1, not 2, but 3 naps during the course of Monday.
Unfortunately, I woke up long enough to watch my Best Bet of the day on the Golden Knights-Wild First-Period Over 1.5 come up short with the Wild only leading 1-0 after the first 20 minutes. That dropped us to 25-11-1 ATS with our top play of the day the past 37 days. My secondary pick also lost with the Oilers-Avalanche also fell short.
It was disappointing, but I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I welcome the volatility of these NHL 1P results. The way I usually play them in parlays and round-robins, having two days goes 2-0 and 0-2 is better than going 1-1 and 1-1. Heck, a 3-0 and 0-3 is better than 2-1 and 2-1 (and, frankly, better than 2-1 and 2-1).
We also lost our recommended parlay on the Wizards -5/Pistons -7. The Wizards was a “swagger play” after snapping their 6-game losing streak last Saturday, but I usually pass when a team is laying points (the beauty of the swagger and anti-swagger plays is that we’re usually getting points because of the team’s overall recent losing form (or fading a team that had been hot). I tried to get cute in turning a fave into a dog by parlaying it for a + 260 payoff with the Pistons, who were on a 13-0-1 ATS run, but the Wizards actually lost to the Rockets and the Pistons also lost outright to the Blazers. I only lost 1 unit, but this only reinforces my “dog-or-pass” approach on ATS plays.
The good news is that I now feel refreshed and ready for the rest of the week. But let’s first get to the general recaps of Monday’s betting action before trying to get back on the winning track on Tuesday.
Monday’s recaps
NBA: Underdogs went 7-2 ATS with 5 outright upsets by the 76ers (+ 8 in 113-106 win vs. Heat), Blazers (+ 9.5 in 119-115 win at Pistons), Lakers (+ 5 in 131-120 win at Cavaliers), Nets (+ 2 in 114-105 win vs. Jazz) and Rockets (+ 3 in 110-108 win vs. Wizards). The Pelicans (+ 5.5 in 106-103 loss at Hornets) and Thunder (+ 13 in 132-123 loss vs. Celtics) covered in SU losses. The only faves to cover on the night were the Bulls (-3.5 in 113-99 win vs. the Raptors) and the Mavericks (-1 in 110-108 win vs. the Timberwolves. Unders went 5-4.
NHL: Favorites went 4-0 with the Bruins (-225 in 3-2 win at Canadiens), Wild (-190 in 3-0 win vs. Golden Knights), Avalanche (-186 in 3-2 win vs. Oilers) and Predators (-180 in 6-3 win at Ducks), though just the Wild and Predators covered the -1.5 puck line. Unders went 3-1.
Tuesday’s Takes
Rangers-Devils First-Period Over 1.5 -135: We’re going back to the well with NHL 1P Overs, especially since we have the Devils going for us as they’re on a 29-7 1P Over run and 42-20 (67.7 percent) on the season. Now, the Rangers are one of the worst 1P Over teams at 26-37, but that’s why we’re getting such a great price of -135 at DraftKings and William Hill (-125 for those with BetMGM). We’re counting on the Devils’ aggressive, relentless style of play to prevail. For those looking for a 1P Over to parlay it with, the Blue Jackets are on a 5-game 1P Over winning streak and overall 13-4 run heading into the Blue Jackets-Penguins game. For those with access to the “will there be a score in the first 10 minutes” prop along with my VSiN colleague Pauly Howard, the Devils are on a 29-4 run.
Vanderbilt + 3.5 vs. Xavier: I haven’t been diving into the NIT too much, but I have this game at pick-’em and I’m sharing it thanks to reader David Conrady (@DavidAceinmiddle on Twitter) who wrote: “Good Morning Dave just reading ur best bets page and have to say we are all playing ur pics out here and what you put out are great but if you are 50/50 still put it out and let us followers decide and I was on ND and TCU but I never thought ISU would pull that win Thx.” Note: 3.5 is the most common line out there, but Circa Sports had Vanderbilt + 4 available overnight in Las Vegas while DraftKings had it in their states.
Good luck today (and every day!).