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Tuley's Takes Today: MNF and contest recaps, Tuesday MLB pick (10-5)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 


We live for the weekends here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but after an exciting weekend of football action (which was a roller-coaster for us as we explained in Monday’s version of this column), we gotta say we’re exciting for the MLB wild-card games coming up in standalone games on Tuesday and Wednesday night.

Before we get to that, let’s recap Monday Night Football and update the season-long NFL betting stats and also look around Contest Corner for our coverage of the high-end Vegas football handicapping contests.

Monday’s recap (and NFL season-long betting stats)

NFL: Chargers (-3) covered in their 28-14 home win vs. the Raiders on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 4. The game stayed Under the betting total of 52 points. Favorites went 9-6 SU on the weekend with Browns-Vikings closing pick-'em, but underdogs led 8-7 ATS. Road teams went 9-7 SU and ATS for the week while Unders also led 9-7. Faves lead 35-27 SU through the first four weeks of the season with 2 games closing pick-em (Buccaneers-Rams in Week 3, Browns-Vikings in Week 4), but dogs lead 37-25 ATS (59.7 percent). Road teams lead 33-30 SU with one neutral-site game (Packers-Saints in Week 1) and 35-28 ATS (56.5%). Unders lead 37-27 (57.8 percent). Note: prime-time Overs, which started 6-0 and 8-1, went 0-3 in Week 4 to drop to 8-4 overall.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million ended up with a 5-way tie in its 1st Quarter contest on NFL Weeks 1-4 as 818Madden20Survivors, Almost Covered, DeadMoneyMedia(dot)com, Mr. Wiggles and Stoney each went 18-2 and win $49,350 apiece (equally splitting the 1st-place prize of $171,750, 2nd-place prize of $50,000 and 3rd-place prize of $25,000). Entering the Monday night game, 818Madden20Survivors had a chance to win the $171,750 first-place prize outright but his plays on the Raiders + 3 came up short.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in NFL Week 4 (12-8 on season) with Chargers -3 covering on Monday Night Football to join Seahawks + 3 and Ravens + 1 as winners. Losses were on the Buccaneers -6.5, the No. 1 choice, and Vikings + 2.

Circa Survivor is down to 2,333 live entries after NFL Week 4 as the last four moved on with the Chargers on Monday Night Football. Sunday's eliminations were on the Saints (409), Titans (151), Dolphins (4) & Vikings (1) after 19 didn't get their pick in for the week.  

SuperContest has new co-leaders as TEMPEST (who was 3rd in first 3-week mini-contest) and WOLFGANG are 17-2-1 for 17.5 points through NFL Week 4 (1 point for each win, 0.5 for each push). SuperContest Gold co-leaders are MILESTOGO and TKASPRO277 at 14-5-1.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in NFL Week 4, improving to 9-11 on the season, with losses by No. 1 pick Buccaneers -6.5 and Vikings + 2, but wins on Seahawks + 3, Ravens + 1 and Chiefs -7. SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 3-2 and is 10-10-1 on the season with the extra game due to one week having a tie for the No. 5 pick.

Tuesday’s Take

Red Sox (+ 110) vs. Yankees: We’ll take the home underdog in the AL wild-card game. Early money has been coming in on the Yankees with Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23 ERA), but I have no problem backing Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA) as he’s pitched well against the Yankees this year (6 starts, 2-2 record, 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) as he almost always keep them in the game. And while the Yankees can hit tape-measure homers, the Red Sox have been more consistent all year as they ranked third in batting average and fourth in runs scored while the Yankees ranked 23rd and 19th in those categories. Besides, Cole – as great as his reputation is – has stats vs. the Red Sox (6 starts 2-2 record, 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) that aren’t as good as Eovaldi’s vs. the Yankees. In addition, the Red Sox won the season series 10-9 – which is why this game is being played as Boston – so I’m not sure the right team is favored. Oddsmakers opened this Yankees -115/Red Sox + 105 and it’s mostly been bet up to -120/+ 110, so I’m also happy to be fading the betting public.

Good luck today (and every day!).




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