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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recaps, weekend football picks (10/23)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

October 23, 2021 02:03 AM

Here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, we love to start the weekend with a win.

After having the Broncos + 3.5 on Thursday night football as well as kicking off NFL Week 7 with some teasers on the Broncos (plus cashing the Dodgers on the run line), we felt pretty good heading into the weekend regardless of what happened on Friday, but we kept the winning going with the Astros -102 in their ALCS-clinching win over the Red Sox.

Without further ado, let’s get to the general recaps from Friday night and then get to our football picks for the rest of the weekend (note: I was thinking of going with the Dodgers on the run line again in Friday’s Game 6 of the NLCS; however, Max Scherzer has been scratched from his expected start, so I’m passing on that. In fact, I’m almost tempted to take the Braves on the money line to close out the series, but with the game being taken off the board at a lot of books, I’ll just pass for now and stick to football).

Friday’s recaps

MLB: Astros (short -110 home favorites) beat the Red Sox 5-0 to win the American League Championship Series 4-2 and advance to the World Series. The game stayed Under the betting total of 9 runs. Faves took a 6-5 lead in this round, home teams improved to 7-4 and Overs dipped to 9-2. In the LDS and LCS rounds, faves, home teams and Overs all lead 18-10.

CFB: Favorites went 3-1 SU on Friday night’s card with the only upset by Utah State ( 3 vs. Colorado State), but faves/dogs split 2-2 ATS as Arizona ( 17 vs. Washington) covered in a 21-16 loss. Middle Tennessee State (-14 at UConn) and Central Florida (-1.5 vs. Memphis) covered in their wins. Unders went 3-1.

NBA: Favorites went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS on Friday with the upsets by the Wizards (+ 2 vs. Pacers), Raptors (+ 7 at Celtics) and the Suns (+ 1.5 at Lakers), plus the Spurs (+ 7.5 at Nuggets) covering in a SU loss. Unders went 6-4. 

NHL: Favorites/underdogs split 2-2 on Friday with upset by the Sharks (+ 200 at Maple Leafs) and Oilers (+ 110 at Golden Knights). Over/Unders also split 2-2.

Saturday’s Takes

Texas State (+ 10.5) at Georgia State: Line is pretty solid at 10.5, but a few books have dipped to 10 so should probably grab the 10.5 now. 

East Carolina (+ 13.5) at Houston: Line is pretty solid, but waiting to see if it goes to 14 by the 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT kickoff.  

Colorado (+ 9.5) at California: Line has been coming down and mostly at + 8.5, so grab that now in case it goes lower. 

Kansas State (+ 1) at Texas Tech: This is down to pick-’em at most books, so grab that before the Wildcats are favored. 

LSU (+ 9.5) at Mississippi: We’ve been waiting all week to see if Matt Corrall will be able to start for Ole Miss. The line has dipped a little, but I’m making sure I don’t take worse than 8.5 (so I’d advise betting ASAP unless you’re sure you’ll be able to find out the Corrall update before the books). If you think he’s going to start, I’d wait as the line would probably hit double digits. Either way, I expect LSU players to give their top effort for coach Ed Orgeron, who is not returning after this season.   

Nevada (+ 3) at Fresno State: This line is up to 3.5 at most books, so I’d advise to take Nevada plus the hook as the line looks more likely to drop back to 3 as opposed to going to 4. 

Bengals (+ 6.5) at Ravens: A few books have dropped to Ravens -6, so it’s looking less likely we’ll get + 7, so grab the + 6.5 now. 

Lions (+ 15.5) at Rams: As I wrote yesterday, this line continues to climb with several Vegas books at Rams -16 and some at Rams -16.5, so I’ll continue to wait until the line peaks.

Bears (+ 12.5) at Buccaneers: Also on Thursday, I wrote that this line was no longer trending toward two touchdowns and to grab the + 12.5 if possible but to not take any worse than + 11.5. As of this update early Saturday morning, several books are already down to 11.5, so grab the 12 if possible or the 11.5.

Colts (+ 4) at 49ers: I didn’t include this on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page, but I’m still betting it and adding it here. The + 4.5s look like they’re long gone and Circa dipped to 49ers -3.5 -120 and now -115, so we should probably grab the + 4 ASAP.

Seahawks (+ 5) vs. Saints: The 5’s area gone as this is mostly down to 4.5 (and even some books dropping to 4), so grab + 4.5 if you still can.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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