Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recaps, weekend football picks (10-2)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Pat_Fitzgerald

Here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, we like to have a win heading into the football weekend (heck, we love a win anytime!) and got one Friday with the Mets (+ 107) beating the Braves 4-3.

We were fading the Braves, who had clinched the NL East division title the night before. The Astros were also coming off clinching the AL West the night before and lost 8-6 to the A’s, but we didn’t like that situation as much because the Astros were trying to hold off the White Sox for the American League’s No. 2 seed. If we put anyone on that + winner, we’re happy for you.

But now we turn our attention to football after the general recaps from Friday’s action.

Friday’s betting recaps

MLB: Red Sox (-195) beat the Nationals 4-2 Friday to pull within one game of the AL's first wild-card seed as the Yankees lost 4-3 to the Rays (+ 115). The Red Sox are moved one game ahead of the Mariners, who lost 2-1 to the Angels (+ 146), for the second wild-card spot. The Blue Jays (-350 in a 6-4 win vs. the Orioles) are also one game behind Boston heading into Saturday. The Giants (-200) and Dodgers (-219) also won in the NL West race as San Fran's magic number is 1. Favorites went 9-6 overall on Friday and lead 1,384-939 (59.6 percent) on season with 55 games closing pick-'em. Over/Unders split 7-7-1 on Friday with the push on Orioles-Blue Jays (10). Unders’ slim lead is 1,145-1,124-103 (50.5 percent).

CFB: No. 13 BYU beat Utah State 34-20 late Friday, covering as an 8.5-point road favorite. The game stayed Under the betting total of 65.5. Earlier, No. 5 Iowa routed Maryland 51-14, easily covering as a 3-point road fave. Game went Over 47,5 as Iowa went over the total all by itself. Houston upset Tulsa 45-10 as a 3.5-point road underdog. (went just Over 54).

Saturday’s Takes (Sunday and Monday, too)

We mostly address the line movements here and how they impacts our picks made in Point Spread Weekly; for more details on my reasoning for each pick, see PSW or the NFL Best Bets file at VSiN.com:

Minnesota (+ 2.5) at Purdue: This line is still widely available from when I picked it on Tuesday and I doubt it goes to 3, but we’re looking for the Golden Gophers to pull the outright upset.

Georgia Tech (+ 3.5) vs. Pittsburgh: On Friday, we advised you that the 3.5s were gone, but a few have come back so grab them if you can. Otherwise, I’d still take the Ramblin’ Wreck + 3 as we’re still mostly betting this for the outright upset.

Eastern Michigan (+ 2.5) at Northern Illinois: It pains me to go against NIU, my alma mater, but the program is down and the Huskies shouldn’t be favored here. And they might not be favored for long as the line to 1 at a lot of Vegas books and even a pick-’em at the Westgate. Another minor upset.

Southern Miss (+ 3) at Rice: We wrote about this in Wednesday’s edition of Tuley’s Takes Today and we hope you heeded the advice as the 3’s are all gone across the country. Again, I feel we’re on the right side with the live underdog and looking for the upset.

Liberty (+ 1.5) at UAB: This line has actually moved higher with 75 percent of the bets coming in on the Blazeres of UAB, so I’m going to wait to see if this steams up to a field goal by gametime.

Northwestern (+ 11) at Nebraska: This line is also moving against us (which means we’re getting more value) as it’s up to 11.5, so we’ll wait to bet it until it reaches its peak. Northwestern is down this season, but coach Pat Fitzgerald has come through for us a lot over the years as an underdog.

 

Falcons (+ 1.5) vs. Washington: We were expecting this line to have a change of favoritism. That hasn’t happened yet, though most books are down to 1 though some are still holding the line at Washington -1.5 (and Westgate up to -2). I’d bet ASAP, especially if teasing the Falcons up to 7.5.

Lions (+ 3) at Bears: We recommended in this space on Wednesday and Thursday to take the Lions ASAP. We were starting to see more and more books going to + 3 -120, but now it appears to be leveling off with only offshore books dipping to 2.5.

Vikings (+ 2) vs. Browns: This line is looking pretty solid at 2, which is fine with us, especially as we’re looking for Kirk Cousins to lead the Vikings to the outright upset as short home underdogs and get back to .500 at 2-2. However, you could wait to see if it goes to 2.5 – especially if you’re looking to include the Vikings with your six-point teasers.

Panthers (+ 5) at Cowboys: This line is down to 4.5 and a few 4’s are starting to pop up, so grab the best number you can if you’re with us on the Panthers. 

Cardinals (+ 5) at Rams: The 5’s are also gone here, so grab the Cardinals ASAP to get as many points as possible just in case. The line is down to 4 at most books – another reason why you need to be reading Point Spread Weekly each week to be able to jump on some of these bets early.

Ravens (+) 1.5 at Broncos: We added this game to this list on Thursday as all the 1.5s were gone and some books even moving to pick-’em. We could definitely see a change in favorites here.

Raiders (+ 3.5) at Chargers: We’ve seen this drop from 3.5 to where it’s now a mix of -3/-3.5 with -120 attached to the side you want. Grab the + 3.5 -110 if you’re with us and you can get it.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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