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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recaps, weekend football (and MLB) picks (10-9)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 9, 2021 03:23 AM
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As a warmup for the weekend, which will mostly be dominated by football here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, we split our MLB plays on Friday with the White Sox losing to the Astros but then the Giants beating the Dodgers.

The White Sox were leading 4-2 and looked in control, but the Astros rallied and never looked back after taking the lead in a 9-4 victory. But at least the Giants came through as a short home dog, led by Logan Webb in a 4-0 combined shutout.

Let’s get to the general recaps and then add an MLB pick to our college football plays on Saturday, as well as updating our NFL picks as the lines are moving all over the place.

Friday’s recaps

MLB: Giants (+ 103 home underdogs) shut out Dodgers 4-0 Friday night in Game 1 of their National League Division Series as the first home team to be an underdog in this round. The game stayed Under the betting total of 7 runs. In Game 1 of the other NLDS, the Brewers (-155 home favorites) beat the Braves 2-1. That game also stayed Under 7. In Friday’s ALCS games, the Astros (-110 home faves) beat the White Sox 9-4 to take a 2-0 lead in their series as the game went Over 8 runs and the Red Sox (+ 130 road dogs) beat the Rays 14-6 to even their series at 1-1. That game went way Over 7.5 runs.

More MLB: Home teams went 3-1 Friday and are 5-1 so far in the divisional round with the Red Sox the only road team to win so far. Faves and dogs split 2-2 on Friday, but faves lead 4-2 with the only upsets by the Red Sox and Giants. Over/Unders also split 2-2, but Unders lead 4-2.

CFB: No. 22 Arizona State beat Stanford 28-10 late Friday, covering as a 13.5-point home favorite. The game stayed Under the betting total of 53 points. Earlier, No. 5 Cincinnati routed Temple 52-3, easily covering as a 30-point home favorite. That game went just Over the closing total of 53 points).

Saturday’s Takes (plus NFL look-ahead)

Giants (+ 100) vs. Dodgers: I rode the Cardinals until they finally lost, and I see no reason why to not keep firing away on the Giants. All they did was hold off the Dodgers to win the NL West and win a MLB-leading 107 game. But yet they’re again underdogs (albeit at even money) at home. They face another tough pitcher in Julio Urias (20-3, 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), but they counter with Keven Gausman (14-6, 2.91 ERA, 1.04), who could have started Game 1 and done just as well as Logan Webb. I like the Brewers in the other NLDS game on Saturday, so I’m passing (though I wouldn’t talk anyone out of a Brewers-Giants ML parlay).

And let’s give our rundown of our best bets from Point Spread Weekly as we update our recommendations on when to make these plays as the lines move during the week (for more of our reasons why we like each game, check out PSW or the VSiN NFL Best Bets file at VSiN.com.

East Carolina + 10 at Central Florida: This has been pretty solid all week, and since this game isn’t on many people’s radar, I wouldn’t expect to see it move much.

Buffalo + 6 at Kent State: I’ve been surprised to see this line going higher (+ 6.5 at most Vegas books, as well as elsewhere), but we’ll take whatever points the books (and betting public) gives us.

Ball State + 11 at Western Michigan: Ditto for this MACtion game, as it’s up to 12.5 at most books and even 13 at a few books 

LSU + 3 at Kentucky: Hopefully you grabbed the + 3 as it was readily, but it’s now down to 2.5 at most books.

Texas + 3 vs. Oklahoma: This was holding steady at 3, but it’s now up to 3.5 at a lot of books, so certainly shop around and get that hook to bet the Horns!

Texas-San Antonio + 3.5 at Western Kentucky: This has dipped to 3 at several books, so grab the + 3.5 if you still can.

Jets + 3 vs. Falcons in London: As we advised in Thursday’s column, we're starting to see some books go to 2.5, so grab the Jets ASAP. We’re also using the Jets to kick off some teasers with the early Sunday start (9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT).  

Football Team teased up to + 7.5 vs. Saints: This line has been drifting up Saints -2.5, so you should now be able to tease the Football Team up to + 8.5. 

Lions + 8 at Vikings, though also using Vikings in teasers: The line is now up to + 10, so we’re no longer using the Vikings in teasers.

Bengals + 3 vs. Packers: This is showing signs of dipping with support on the underdog Bengals, so grab the 3 if you still can.

Browns teased up to + 7.5 at Chargers: This line is up to Chargers -2 so the teasers are looking even better on the Browns .

Giants + 7 at Cowboys, though using Cowboys -1 in teasers: This line has been holding pretty steady.

Bills + 3 at Chiefs: The 3’s are mostly gone (though could still come back with the public still expected to back the Chiefs if favored by less than a field goal), but still playing the Bills in teasers at + 8.5

Colts + 7 at Ravens on MNF, though using Ravens -1 in teasers: This line also looking solid.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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