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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recaps, updated weekend football picks (12/4)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 4, 2021 12:57 AM
Sam_Hartman

Friday night served as a nice appetizer for the great sports betting menu we have this weekend.

We were happy to see all the dogs barking in the NBA, going 8-1 ATS with five outright upsets as the only chalk to cover was the Warriors as they snapped the Suns’ 18-game winning streak.

But it’s sad to say we lost our best bet in the Tuley’s Takes home office as Western Kentucky was knocked off by Texas-San Antonio in the Conference USA Championship Game. As we’ve often mentioned, we feel much more confident in our plays when we’re contrarian to the public, so it was with trepidation that we picked Western Kentucky when it was pick-’em and saw the line get bet as high as WKU -3.5. It is always an uneasy feeling for us to be on such a popular side, so I hope readers took our advice in yesterday’s column to bet some back on UTSA + 3.5 as the value had flipped to that side. We still stubbornly had more on the Western Kentucky side, but at least we cut our losses a little.

Even though we were clearly on the wrong side most of the game, we still had a chance to cover if the Hilltoppers had been able to get a late TD and 2-point conversion to force OT.

Well, we’re still hoping to have a winning weekend with the rest of our CFB and NFL plays, which we’ll update at the end of the column.

But first let’s get to the recaps of the major sports betting action from Friday night.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors snapped the Suns' 18-game winning streak Friday night with a 118-96 rout, covering as 7-point home favorites. The game stayed just Under the betting total of 216 points. Underdogs went 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS on the night as the Warriors were the only fave to cover. 

More NBA: The upsets were by the Heat (+ 5.5 at Pacers), Cavaliers (+ 3 at Wizards), 76ers (+ 2.5 at Hawks), Pelicans (+ 6.5 at Mavericks) and Clippers (+ 2.5 at Lakers). Timberwolves (+ 9 at Nets), Magic (+ 3 at Rockets) and Celtics (+ 8 at Jazz) covered in SU losses. Overs went 5-4, but Unders still lead 186-153-3 (54.9 percent) on the season.

CFB: No. 17 Utah routed No. 10 Oregon 38-10 in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but it was NOT an upset as Utah closed as a 3-point favorite. The game stayed Under the betting total of 57.5 points. Texas-San Antonio (+ 3, + 130 ML) held off Western Kentucky 49-41 in the Conference USA Championship Game, which flew Over 74.

CBB: No. 2 Purdue held off Iowa 77-70 in their Big Ten opener, but did NOT cover as a 15-point home favorite. The game stayed Under the betting total of 158.5. No. 7 Texas (-25.5 vs. UT-Rio Grande Valley), No. 8 Kansas (-7 at St. John's) and No. 15 Houston (-23 vs. Bryant) covered in their wins.

NHL: Faves went 4-1 Friday night with the lone upset by the Kraken (+ 122 in 4-3 win vs. the Oilers). Rangers (-200 vs. Sharks), Jets (-190 vs. Devils), Golden Knights (-225 at Coyotes) and Flames (-125 at Ducks) won as faves. Overs went 4-1 on the night.

Saturday’s Takes

Wake Forest + 3 vs. Pittsburgh: I’ve already bet this at my published number as I doubted we would get the “hook” at + 3.5, but that’s where most books went to on Friday. I’m willing to wait to see what happens Saturday morning in case we see it continuing to rise to + 4 or more..

Iowa + 11 vs. Michigan: Iowa plays defense and I think this should be a low-scoring game (total is 43.5), so points should be at a premium. Michigan, which obviously has the motivation of playing for a CFB Playoff berth, could also have a letdown after finally beating Ohio State. Some books are at 10.5, so I’d grab the + 11 ASAP.

NFL

Lions + 7 vs. Vikings: As we mentioned in Friday’s update, we saw some books going to Vikings -7 -120 and even some at 7.5, so we’re waiting to see how high the public bets this.

Falcons + 11.5 vs. Buccaneers: Most books are down to 11, so grab the best line you can.

Giants + 5 at Dolphins: This line was available on Tuesday when we were putting together PSW, then it got bet down to 4.5 and some books at 4. However, it was announced that Daniel Jones was out and Mike Glennon would get the start, so the line is now up to Dolphins -6.5 at some books. I love the Giants even more. Glennon is a journeyman QB, but he’s not several points worse than Jones, so every half-point we’re getting is more value.

Steelers + 4.5 vs. Ravens: Public might bet higher, but some books are at 4 so I’d bet now. If waiting to see if it goes higher, be ready to bet quick if you see it starting to drop.

Broncos + 10 at Chiefs: As I advised in Thursday’s column, if you can grab + 10, do it. Most books have dipped to 9.5. I would still play the Broncos down to 8.5.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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