Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recaps, updated weekend football picks (12/11)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 11, 2021 01:12 AM
Army_Navy

Friday was a quiet day in the Tuley’s Takes home office. We didn’t have a best bet, so we caught up on some errands and spent some time with the kids.

But I still felt like I suffered a loss. You see, in Friday’s column, I recommended betting Under 34.5 in Saturday’s Army-Navy game. My feeling was that although the total is very low and the public usually likes to bet Overs, especially in standalone TV games, there would be so many people hearing about the trend that the Army-Navy game has stayed Under the total in 15 straight meetings would lead more people to jump in the bandwagon.

However, after starting the day at 34.5 at virtually all sportsbooks, the movement actually came in on the Over as the total went to 35 here in Vegas at the South Point, Circa, BetMGM, Wynn, Golden Nugget and Treasure Island, as well as DraftKings sportsbooks in other states and several offshore books. So, I felt like I gave some bad advice.

Now, I’ve written several times the past few months on betting streaks (though usually in-season as opposed to across many years), but also advising to be cautious of trendy trends as that’s usually the time you see the reverse. I usually advise people not to jump on a trend or streak if they haven’t been betting on it before the rest of the world found it.

In this case, I haven’t bet the Army-Navy Under every year, but I know I’ve bet the Under at least half the time over those 15 years, so if I lose I won’t be too upset for just giving back one unit.

Let’s recap Friday’s betting action before making my Saturday best bet official, and then we’ll update our NFL best bets for Sunday.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 7-2 SU Friday, but 6-3 ATS as the Rockets (+ 9.5) covered in a 123-114 loss vs. the Bucks; Dogs still lead 42-29-1 ATS (59.2 percent) in December. Upsets were by the Hornets (+ 1.5 vs. Kings) and Nets (+ 2 at Hawks). Unders 6-3 lead 209-177-5 (54.1 percent) on the season, but Overs still lead 40-31-1 (56.3 percent) this month.

CBB: There weren’t any Top 25 teams in action Friday, but the biggest upset on the main betting board was Murray State rallying from a 14-point halftime deficit to beat Memphis 74-72 as a 10-point road underdog and + 420 on the money line. DePaul (+ 7.5, + 275 ML) upset Louisville 62-55.

NHL: Faves went 4-3 with the upsets by the Penguins (+ 125 at Capitals), Predators (+ 100 at Devils) and Flyers (+ 220 at Golden Knights). Overs went 4-3. 

Saturday’s Takes

Army-Navy Under 35: I gave this out in Friday’s edition of this column at Under 34.5, but now it’s widely available at Under 35, so obviously grab the highest number possible if joining me on the Under.

Most of our betting action on Saturday will be taking place on the ponies, so please check out our “Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column at VSiN.com/horses as well as my “A.I. Pick of the WeeK” and plays from other 1st/Bet analysts.

Here are the rest of our NFL Week 14 best bets from Point Spread Weekly. See this week’s issue for my reasoning behind liking each play; our main purpose here is checking the line movement to decide whether to bet ASAP or to wait until closer to kickoff.

Raiders + 9.5 at Chiefs: I originally posted that I didn’t think this would get to 10, but then we saw 10’s popping up all over on Thursday. Now, William Hill and Station Casinos here in Vegas have gone back down to 9.5, so I think now is the time to take the + 10.

Ravens + 2.5 at Browns: I wrote Thursday that Circa and some offshores have gone to 3 and that we should wait, and sure enough we’re seeing more books at Ravens + 3 (though don’t lay the extra -120 juice if you don’t have to). I also recommended the Ravens as a top two-team, 6-point teaser play as we move the Ravens to + 8.5 (or 9) just in case. My top recommendation in PSW was to use Ravens + 8.5 with the 49ers teased from + 1.5 to + 7.5 at the Bengals, but there’s been a change of favorite so the preferred side would now be the Bengals teased from + 1.5 to + 7.5 (though there’s a decent chance a two-team, 6-point teaser hits no matter how we play it if the game comes down to a FG. Other teaser options are the Seahawks teased down from -7.5 (or -8 or -8.5 at most books) to -1.5 (or -2 or -2,5) and the Rams teased up from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Cardinals on Monday night.

Washington + 4 vs. Cowboys: Here in Vegas, the South Point went to Cowboys -5 and then settled back at -4.5, so I don’t think it’s going any higher so grab the Football Team + 4.5.

Lions + 8 at Broncos: This line had also gone up to Broncos -8.5 on Wednesday, so I advised to wait. It’s now up to 10 at nearly every book (update for Saturday: several books are now up to 10.5). Grab the best number you can if you’re with me again on the Lions.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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