Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recaps, updated weekend football picks (11/6)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 6, 2021 04:18 AM
Mike_Leach

We spent most of Friday in the Tuley’s Takes home office following the ponies on the first day of the Breeders’ Cup and handicapping Saturday’s second day (for the selections of yours truly, Dave Tuley, and my stable of handicapping friends. check out “Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” at VSiN.com and on our dedicated page at VSiN.com/horses).

We didn’t have a best bet on the sports side Friday as we just updated our weekend football plays from Point Spread Weekly, and that’s what we’ll do again for Saturday right after we recap Friday night’s betting action.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Favorites went 7-2 SU but only 5-4 ATS on the night. The only upsets were by the Knicks (+ 3.5 in 113-98 win at Bucks as they rallied from a 21-point deficit) and Cavaliers (+ 6 in 102-101 win at Raptors). The Pistons (+ 9.5 vs. Nets) and Pacers (+ 5.5 at Blazers) covered in SU losses. Unders went 8-1 and are dominating at 85-46-1 (64.9 percent) on the young season.

NHL: Faves went 4-1 Friday with the lone upset by the Predators (+ 115 in 3-2 win at Canucks). Unders went 3-1-1 with the push in Blackhawks-Jets (6).

CFB: Utah routed Stanford 52-7 late Friday as the Utes (did you say Utes?) easily covered as 11-point road favorites and the game went Over the betting total of 52 points. Earlier, Boston College beat Virginia Tech as a 1-point home underdog and the game stayed way Under the total of 51.

Saturday’s Takes

As we’ve written several times, these are our recommended best bets and the lines from Point Spread Weekly. Go there for more on the reasons why I like the picks, but here we’re most concerned with timing our bets and getting the best numbers possible.

CFB

Mississippi State + 5 at Arkansas: We advised readers yesterday to grab the best number they could as the majority of books were still at 5. Most of those are gone, but I’d still play it at + 4.5.

Rice + 6.5 at Charlotte: This line is mostly down to 6, but there are some books that are dealing -6 with added juice, so there’s a chance we could see it go back to 6.5. But only wait if you’re confident you’ll be able to grab a stale + 6 if the market starts dropping.

Texas + 6.5 at Iowa State: This is looking pretty solid and it doesn’t look like we’ll get + 7 no matter how long we wait.

Middle Tennessee + 15 at Western Kentucky: In this space on Friday, I wrote “I liked this enough in PSW to take the + 15, but now this line is up to 16.5, so wait for it to peak.” Well, as of early Saturday morning, it’s up to 17.5 at most books, so we’re still waiting.

Boise State + 5 at Fresno State: This line still looks solid, but a couple of 4.5s popping up, so grab the 5 if you still can, but + 4.5 should be fine.

Note: We usually have six CFB Best Bets from PSW, but we’re already 1-0 ATS this week with Central Michigan (+ 10) pulling the outright upset in a 42-30 win at Western Michigan on Wednesday night.

NFL

Broncos + 10 at Cowboys: We wrote on Thursday that we hoped everyone grabbed the 10 as some books had dipped to 9.5. However, a lot of the books are still holding the line at 10, but it looks like it’s still more likely to dip than to go higher.

Vikings + 5.5 at Ravens: As we also wrote the other day, this line is up to 6 just about everywhere, so we should wait to see if it goes even higher.

Chiefs pick-’em vs. Packers: Well, this line is long-gone as that’s what it was when we were putting Point Spread Weekly together. You know that I’m not going to lay the -7.5 (or even 7), so let’s just tease it down to -1.5 as the Chiefs pretty much just have to win the game straight-up. For more teaser options, see below.

Titans + 7.5 at Rams: This line stayed at 7.5 for longer than I expected, but I hope everyone grabbed the hook as I recommended. I would still play it at + but hopefully you don’t have to just in the Rams win by exactly a TD and a PAT.

Teaser strategy (use these in combinations depending which you like): Browns from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at Bengals, Giants + 2.5 (now 3) to + 8.5 (now 9) vs. Raiders and Eagles + 1.5 to + 7.5 at Chargers. As we mentioned above, with the change in the Packers-Chiefs spread, add the Chiefs from -7.5 to -1.5 (or -7 down to -1) vs. Packers. In addition, I wouldn’t talk anyone out of using Rams from -7.5 down to -1.5 vs. Titans, but as you see I’m on the Titans (though it does have a very hittable middle with Rams -1.5 and Titans + 7.5). Also, we previously included the 49ers teased from + 1.5 to + 7.5 vs. the Cardinals, but now the 49ers have flipped to favoritism; so the preferred teaser now would be Cardinals from + 2 to + 8.

And, again, for my Breeders’ Cup selections, go to vsin.com/horses.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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