Friday was another day spent monitoring the Super Bowl odds in the Tuley’s Takes home office and shopping around for the best prop prices.
I also got there with my best bet of the day with the Lightning-Coyotes First-Period Over 1.5 -150. The Lightning scored just 3:30 into the game and it took a while to get the second goal, including the Coyotes having a close call (the horn and lights actually went off, but the refs never signaled a goal and play continued). But then the Lightning got us the Over with another goal with 2:49 left in the period and the Coyotes added another goal for good measure.
Our second-best bet came up short on UConn vs. Xavier, but we felt OK to split on the night as we got closer to Super Sunday.
Let’s wrap up the rest of Thursday’s betting action, including our daily update of the Super Bowl side and total, and then look for value on the Saturday betting boards. In addition, I went ahead and made Bengals + 4.5 my official Super Bowl LVI pick the other day in case the line dropped (which it did, so we were proud of that call) and then list our top prop plays.
Friday’s recaps
NBA: Faves went 6-1 SU on Friday (43-6 SU the last 7 days) but only 4-3 ATS (falling to 38-9-2 ATS, 80.9 percent, the last 7 days but still over 80 percent overall). The lone upset was by the Spurs (+ 8.5 in 136-121 win at Hawks). The Thunder (+ 13.5 at 76ers) and Nuggets (+ 6.5 at Celtics) covered in SU losses. Overs went 4-3.
CBB: No. 25 Xavier (-1) covered in its 74-68 home win vs. No. 24 UConn. Those were the only Top 25 teams in action on Friday night. There are tons more on Saturday (21 ranked teams playing), including some teams' scores that will kick off cross-sport Super Bowl props.
NHL: Faves went 3-1 with the lone upset by the Kraken (+ 142 in 4-3 win at the Ducks). The Stars (-150 in 4-3 OT win vs. Jets), Oilers (-148 in 3-1 win vs. Islanders) and Lightning (-300 in 4-3 win at Coyotes) won as chalk but only the Oilers covered the -1.5 puck line. Overs went 3-1.
Super Bowl odds update (10 p.m. PT Friday): Rams were still a consensus -4 in Las Vegas late Friday with the Wynn the only book still offering Bengals + 4.5. The lowest line on the Rams -4 is -101 at the Westgate SuperBook, which is dealing a 10-cent line with the Bengals + 4 -109. The Over/Under is still mostly 48.5, but the South Point, Station Casinos and Wynn are the first to go back up to 49.
Saturday’s Takes
Blue Jackets-Canadiens First-Period Over 1.5 -150: Let’s go back to the well with a best bet on an NHL 1P Over. The Canadiens have gone Over 1.5 in the 1st Period of their last 6 games and 12-3 in their last 15, according to @PSUOtto on Twitter. Meanwhile, Columbus is still among the best teams on the season at 30-15 (66.7 percent).
Blazers + 4.5 vs. Knicks: We wrote yesterday how we were kicking ourselves for not posting an “anti-swagger” play against the Warriors after they had their 9-game losing streak snapped. Well, this is a lesser “swagger” play on the Blazers after they had their 6-game losing streak snapped the other night when they knocked off the Lakers (and a letdown spot for the Knicks after they upset the Warriors). We’ll take the points with the undermanned home dog trying to build on that confidence-building win.
Hornets + 7.5 vs. Grizzlies: The Hornets are in a similar “swagger” spot about snapping a 6-game losing streak by routing the Pacers last night. They face a hot Memphis team, but the Hornets have been a sneaky-good team to bet on this season at 32-25 ATS (56.1 percent) as they’ve been more competitive than their 29-28 SU record.
Super Bowl: Bengals + 4.5. We recommended grabbing the 4.5 the other day in case the line dropped. Well, that’s happened and I hope everyone with me on the Bengals grabbed it as you might not see it again. If you’re looking for my thoughts on the Over/Under and the huge menus of Super Bowl props, check out my regular “Tuley’s Takes column in Point Spread Weekly” or the VSiN.com Best Bets file.
Bengals + 4.5
Lean Under 48.5 (prefer 1st Half Under 23.5)
Bengals Score 1st (+ 110)
Score Tied After 0-0 (-110)
Largest Lead Under 14.5 (+ 100)
1st TD Stafford 30-1; 1st Rams TD Stafford 16-1
1st TD Burrow 30-1; 1st Bengals TD Burrow 14-1
Double Result: Halftime Tie/Rams win 12-1
Double Result: Halftime Tie/Bengals win 16-1
Rams Team Total Under 26.5 (+ 110)
Shortest TD Under 1.5 Yards (-150)
Longest TD Over 41.5 Yards (-110)
Total Sacks Under 5 (+ 120)
Cam Akers Rushing Yards Under 64.5 (-110)
Cooper Kupp Under 8.5 Receptions (-110)
Cooper Kupp Under 108.5 Yards (-110)
Cooper Kupp no TD (+ 140)
# of Different Players Throw Pass Over 2.5 (+ 150)
MVP Burrow + 250
Good luck today (and every day!).