Friday was another busy day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we worked to put together our “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column at VSiN.com. You can find the Belmont Stakes plays for me and my handicapping friends, plus we’ll be adding more Saturday plays later this morning after scratches.
I also took my wife out to dinner with one of her cousins (we went to Ellis Island for its famous $11.99 steak dinner special – though it was better when it was $7.99!!!).
I was still back at the home office in time to see my Best Bet on the Angels lose in a 7-3 defeat at the hands of the Mets, along with my other MLB play on the Mariners in a 4-3 loss vs. the Red Sox.
Fortunately, we won our bet in the NBA Finals on the Warriors + 4 as they beat the Celtics to tie the series at 2-2. It admittedly was a hedge against my series bet on the Celtics, but we really felt it was the right call as we really felt this series would be back-and-forth and it’s proven itself that way with the zig-zag starting 3-0 SU and ATS. We already know we’ll be on the Celtics + 3.5 in Game 5 Monday back in San Francisco.
But there’s plenty of betting between now and then, so let’s recap the rest of Friday’s action and make our plays on Saturday’s busy card.
Warriors beat Celtics 107-97 to even NBA Finals at 2-2. The ViewFromVegas is the Warriors did it as 4-point road dogs and + 140 on the money line. The game stayed Under the betting total of 213.5 points. The zig-zag is 3-0 ATS in the Finals as the teams have alternated wins. The Warriors opened as 3.5-point home faves in Game 5 on Sunday.
Faves/dogs back to .500 at 2-2 SU and ATS in the NBAFinals. Faves still lead 56-29 SU and 49-36 ATS (57.6 percent) overall. Home/road teams are 2-2 SU and ATS while 51-34 SU and 44-41 ATS (51.8 percent) overall. The zig-zig improved to 40-30 ATS (57.1 percent) overall. Over/Unders are 2-2 in the FInals, while Unders lead 50-35 (58.8 percent).
Faves went 11-4 Friday with upsets by the Nationals (+ 160 in 11-5 win vs. Brewers), Giants (+ 145 in 7-2 win vs. Dodgers), Marlins (+ 140 in 7-4 win at Astros) and Royals (-104 in 8-1 win vs. Orioles). Home teams also went 11-4. Overs went 8-7-1 with the push in the Giants’ 7-2 win vs. the Dodgers with a betting total of 9 run.
Faves are 522-331 SU (61.2 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves are still ahead of that pace). Home teams improved to 450-420 (51.7 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead just 428-397-43 (51.9 percent).
No game Friday, but faves are 7-2 in the conference finals round and now lead 54-28 overall. Home teams are 5-3 in this round and 50-32 overall. Unders are 6-3 in this round (4-1 in the Rangers-Lightning series), while Overs still lead 43-37-2 (53.8 percent) overall.
Generals-Panthers Under 47:
I have this closer to 41 or 42 points, so this is my top USFL play of Week 9 and my Best Bet for Saturday (and it’s still available at William Hill and Caesars books as of early Saturday morning). The Panthers, who were the preseason favorite to win the league championship, are 1-7 and playing out the string while the Generals should just pound the ball on the ground to keep the clock running. The first time these teams met in Week 2, the Generals won 10-6. I don't expect the score to be that low, but we have a lot of wiggle room to keep this Under the posted total.
Rangers + 160 at Lightning:
The two-time defending champion Lightning has won three straight games to take a 3-2 lead in the series, but I’m counting on the Rangers to bounce back to send this series back to New York for a decisive Game 7. The goalies – Igor Shesterkin for the Rangers and Andrei Vasilevskiy for the Lightning – have battled valiantly as the Under is 4-1 the series, so I’m thinking of parlaying the Rangers with the Under 5.5.
We’ve been stone-cold with our dogs lately (it doesn’t help when faves go 11-4 like they did Friday), so I wouldn’t blame anyone for passing on these, but the two dogs I’m considering Saturday are the Rangers/Perez + 125 at the White Sox and the Red Sox + 105 at the Mariners.
Good luck today (and every day!).