Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recaps, updated ATS stats, Saturday Best Bets 6/25

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

June 25, 2022 04:56 AM
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Friday was another travel day away from the Tuley’s Takes home office as we spent the late morning/early afternoon at Pier 39 in San Francisco and then drove across the state of California to Fresno as we’re picking up our younger kids at camp on Saturday morning.

We caught the third quarter of Game 5 of the Stanley Cup at dinner (Sizzler, for those curious) but unfortunately saw our Best Bet on the Over 6 come up short in the Lightning’s 3-2 victory, The good news of course is it kept our series bets on the Lightning alive and continues these daily columns through at least Sunday.

The news wasn’t as good in MLB as we lost our plays on the Braves vs. the Dodgers and Brewers vs. the Blue Jays (and, of course, after considering the Astros at the Yankees but deciding to pass after Thursday’s Bad Beat, the Astros won 3-1 as + 110.

Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting action and try to make better decisions on Saturday.

Friday’s recaps

NHL: Lightning beat Avalanche 3-2 Friday night to avoid elimination and pull within 3-2 in Stanley Cup Final. The Lightning did it as a + 170 road underdog and the game stayed Under the closing betting total of 6 goals.

More NHL: Faves dipped to 3-2 in the series with dogs winning second straight game (Avalanche were short road dog in Game 4), but faves still lead 58-30 overall. Home teams are also 3-2 in series and 54-34 overall. Overs also dipped to 3-2 in the series, but still lead 46-40-2 (53.5 percent).

MLB: Dogs went 10-5 Friday with biggest upsets by the Reds (+ 190 in 4-2 win at Giants to snap a 7-game losing streak), Orioles (+ 157 in 4-1 win at White Sox), Cubs (+ 150 in 3-0 win at Cardinals) and Tigers (+ 148 in 5-1 win at Diamondbacks). Road teams dominated at 12-3. Unders dominated at 11-2-2 with pushes in the Red Sox’s 6-3 win at Guardians with a betting total of 9 runs and the Rays’ 4-3 win vs. Pirates with total of 7. Only Overs were in the Mets’ 5-3 at the Marlins with a betting total of 7 runs and the Blue Jays’ 9-4 win at Brewers with a total of 8.5.

More MLB: Faves lead 633-412 SU (60.6 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 542-520 (51 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders improved to 522-485-53 (51.8 percent).

USFL: No games since last Sunday, but here’s the betting stats from the regular season: faves finished season 30-10 SU (75 percent) but faves/dogs only tied 19-19-2 ATS (50 percent). Overs finished 22-18 (55 percent) after a 4-8 start.

Saturday’s Takes

Stallions-Breakers Under 44: With the way my MLB dogs have been performing lately (heck, I couldn’t even find a winner on Friday when dogs went 10-5!), I have to turn to the USFL playoffs for my Best Bet on Saturday as the semifinals are being played at the Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio, after the full regular season was held in Birmingham, Alabama. Both these teams are 6-4 with the Under and comfortable playing lower-scoring games, so I was pleasantly surprised that oddsmakers put this total of 44 points. I have it in the high 30s. As we’ve seen all year, faves are 30-10 SU (75 percent) but only 19-19-2 ATS as dogs have often covered in losses. I agree the Stallions and Generals should be favored in these matchups, but I lean to both dogs as the Stars are + 4.5 vs. the Generals and the Breakers are + 4.5, but I have both under a field goal.

Reds + 1.5 EVEN at Giants: This is a swagger play as the Reds just snapped their 7-game losing streak against the Giants on Friday night. The Giants are scuffling a little with a 3-game losing streak themselves. I’ll also take a shot with the Reds + 210 to win outright. I don’t expect dogs to fare as well as they did on Friday, and in fact, the only other dog I’m considering is the Blue Jays + 140 at the Brewers/Burnes.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 
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