Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recaps, updated ATS stats, Saturday Best Bets 6/18

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

June 18, 2022 03:47 AM
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Friday was another long day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we followed all the U.S. Open action and a full MLB schedule.

We had to wait until 4 p.m. PT for our Best Bet on the Pirates + 1.5 + vs. the Giants. Unfortunately, the Pirates didn’t score even a run to cover that run line as they lost 2-0. We also lost with the White Sox as dogs at the Astros and only split our chalky -1.5 run line plays with the Phillies and Yankees winning and covering but the Brewers and Dodgers failing to cover.

Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting action and try to find more winners on Saturday with a wide range of sports to keep us entertained. Note: “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” won’t be posted on Saturday as Ed Sehon is touring Europe and I gave the rest of the team the week off.

Friday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 9-7 on Friday with the biggest upset by the Guardians (+ 237 in 2-1, 10-inn. win at Dodgers). The most surprising in my opinion was the Cubs (+ 165 in 1-0 win vs. the Braves to snap both Atlanta’s 14-game win streak and Chicago’s 10-game skid. Home/road teams split 8-8. Unders went 8-7-1 with the push in the Diamondbacks’ 7-2 win over the Twins with a betting total of 9 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 582-368 SU (61.3 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 495-472 (51.2 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders improved slightly to 474-445-46 (51.6 percent).

NHL: We haven’t had a Stanley Cup Final game since Wednesday, but faves (Avalanche) started the final round 1-0 (after going 8-2 last round) and lead 56-28 overall. Home teams also started 1-0 (7-3 last round) and now 52-32 overall. Overs started 1-0 (Unders led 7-3 last round) and improved to 44-38-2 (53.7 percent) overall.

NBA: For those interested….faves/dogs split 3-3 SU and ATS in the NBA Finals. Faves finished 57-30 SU and 50-37 ATS (57.5 percent) overall in the playoffs. Home teams also split 3-3 SU and ATS in series, and led 52-35 SU and 45-42 ATS (51.7 percent) overall. The zig-zig dipped to 3-2 ATS in the series after starting 3-0 ATS, and still finished 40-32 ATS (55.6 percent) overall. Unders went 4-2 in Finals and 52-35 (59.8 percent) overall.

Saturday’s Takes

Lightning + 135 at Avalanche: We have the Lightning on a series bet, so we’re obviously counting on them to bounce back and even the series with a split in Colorado. We feel the OT game shows that Game 1 was basically a coin-flip and could have gone either way, so there’s value in the + 135 (+  138 at Circa in Vegas; VSiN’s parent company, DraftKings, was offering + 140 on Thursday, but it’s been bet down to + 130. at DraftKings elsewhere). I also don’t mind putting a little more on the Lightning at around + 230 to win the series.

Cubs + 150 vs. Braves: As alluded to above, we have a rare double swagger/anti-swagger spot with the Cubs picking up swagger by snapping their 10-game losing streak on Saturday while beating the Braves, who lost a lot of swagger as their 14-game win streak was snapped. The public, which steamed the Braves on Friday on both the money line and run line, is still trusting them despite the loss as the Cubs opened + 140 and have been raised to + 150 and I’m hopeful it will continue to rise. Less confident believers might take the Cubs + 1.5 at around -120. The only other dog I like on Saturday’s MLB card is the Cardinals/Hudson + 105 at Red Sox/Crawford.

Stars-Generals Over 41.5: Week 10 of the USFL season is similar to what we’ve seen over the years with NFL Week 17 (and now Week 18). These teams are both locked into their playoff positions and, in fact, will meet in the semifinals next Saturday. I’ve heard people say in these types of situations that neither team wants to show too much on offense heading into the more important matchup next week, but we believe both offenses will be trying to score (and with 40-man rosters in the USFL, it’s not like they’re going to be able to rest all their starters) and where the lack of effort and focus will be seen more on defense, so we can see this turning into a street-football type of wide-open affair. Both teams are also 6-3 with the Over, so we expect them both to play their game.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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