Friday was a multi-faceted day spent mostly away from the Tuley’s Takes home office where I spent part of it putting my middle daughter Peyton (named after Walter Payton, NOT Peyton Manning) on a plane to Reno so she could audition for the performing arts program at UNR and the rest of the day following the Day 1 action at the National Horseplayers Championship at Bally’s.
It was a pretty fun day all things considered, but then ended on a sour note as our best bet of the day – Knicks + 9 at the Bucks – lost after the Knicks were covering for most of the first three quarters only to let it slip away. It was hard to find live dogs in the Association on Friday night as faves won all 11 games and went 9-2 ATS with the two L.A. teams the only 2 to cover.
Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting action and try to find the best bets on the loaded Saturday card. In addition, we continue to track our best bets for the NFL conference championship games on Sunday.
Friday’s recaps
NBA: Faves went 11-0 SU on Friday night, but not perfect ATS as they went 9-2 ATS with the Lakers (+ 9.5 in 117-114 loss at Hornets) and Clippers (+ 8.5 in 121-114 loss at Heat) covering as dogs in SU losses. Overs went 9-2.
CBB: There weren't any Top 25 teams in action on Friday night. The biggest upset on the betting board was UNLV beating Colorado State 88-74 as a 14.5-point road underdog and + 650 on the money line.
NHL: Faves went 3-2 with upsets by the Red Wings (+ 230 at Penguins) and Capitals (+ 110 at Stars). The Wild (-140 at Rangers), Avalanche (-190 at Blackhawks) and Bruins (-280 at Coyotes) won as faves with only the Avalanche covering -1.5 on the puck line with an empty-net goal with 12.2 seconds left in game. Unders went 4-1.
Saturday’s Takes (and NFL picks for Sunday)
Devils-Hurricanes First-Period Over 1.5 -145: This is my top NHL 1P Over play for Saturday as the teams combine for 44-37 (54.3 percent) with 1P Overs, but both teams have been especially hot as of late with the Devils going Over 13-4 in their last 17 games and the Hurricanes going 9-3 in their last 12. If looking for others to parlay with this play, I prefer Sharks-Panthers 1P Over 1.5 -160 and Golden Knights-Lightning 1P Over 1.5 -140.
CBB
3 college basketball plays: There’s a huge CBB card on Sunday, and these overinflated highly ranked faves jumped out to me as vulnerable ATS. Hopefully we honor the late, great Meat Loaf with at least two out of three (for those who don’t get it, one of Meat Loaf’s hit songs was “Two out of Three Ain’t Bad”)
Louisville + 6.5 vs. Duke: Home dog doesn’t have Duke’s blue-chip stars, but has a deep bench to keep this close.
Oklahoma + 9.5 at Auburn: Auburn has a huge bulls-eye on its back as the No. 1 team. OU has had some tough losses lately, but covered in 67-64 loss to Kansas and is coming off a short upset of West Virginia.
Stanford + 13 at UCLA: The Bruins are one of the best teams in the nation, but they are just 8-8-1 ATS as they tend to let lesser teams stick around. Stanford just upset USC 64-61 on Thursday as a 10.5-point road dog and can at least keep this close as well.
NFL Sunday
Note: for reasons why I like both underdogs, check out Point Spread Weekly or our VSiN NFL Best Bet file later in the week at VSiN.com. In this case, we’re more interested in when to bet as the market moves during the weekend and into the weekend.
Bengals + 7 at Chiefs: We love the Bengals + 7, but we’ve already seen BetMGM go to 7.5 (though -120 on Bengals + 7.5) and several other books go to -7 with added juice and other indicators that this line is heading higher, so we advise waiting to get the hook.
49ers + 3.5 at 49ers: Likewise, we’re OK taking + 3.5 with the 49ers even if we would have to lay -120 to get it, but more books have gone to 3.5-flat (-110 both ways), so shop around for the best line you can get.
Good luck today (and every day!).