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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, weekend football picks (9-18)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

September 18, 2021 05:56 AM

Welcome to the 6th edition of this new column, but more importantly it’s the first weekend edition as we get ready for a full day of college football on Saturday and wall-to-wall pro football on Sunday.

We’ll get to our weekend picks shortly (and they’ll mostly be my CFB and NFL picks from Point Spread Weekly that came out on Wednesday, but with an updated look at the lines).

But first let’s wrap up Friday. I lost my chalk run-line parlay with the Dodgers and the White Sox. Chicago came through in an easy 8-0 win over the Rangers, but it was the Dodgers who let us down in a 3-1 loss to the Reds as their six-game winning streak was snapped. If you’ve been following along over the summer, you know that now puts the Dodgers in a fade role that we call the “anti-swagger theory,” so look for that below with the football picks.

As for college football on Friday, I mentioned in yesterday’s column that I picked Louisville + 7 on the VSiN CFB Consensus page in PSW but that I didn’t like the Cardinals with the line dipping to 6.5. I hope I didn’t discourage anyone as the line went back to 7 during the day on Friday and Louisville ended up winning outright.

Anyway let’s get to the general recaps:

Friday’s betting recaps

MLB: Favorites went 12-3 on Friday. The Reds (+ 151) beat the Dodgers 3-1, snapping their 6-game winning streak. The biggest upset of the day was by the Twins (+ 182 at Blue Jays). Faves now lead 1,270-867 (59.4%) on the season with 51 games closing pick-’em. Unders went 8-6-1 on Friday with the push on A’s-Angels (9) and increased their very slim lead on the season to 1,044-1,039-99 (50.1%).

CFB: Maryland rallied to beat Illinois 20-17 late Friday night on a FG as time expired, but the Terrapins did NOT cover as 7-point road favorites. The game stayed way Under the betting total of 61.5 points. Earlier, Louisville (+ 7, + 220) upset Central Florida 42-35 as home dogs went 2-0 ATS on the night. This game went Over 67.5 points.

Saturday’s Takes

Reds (+ 170) vs. Dodgers: The Dodgers had their six-game winning streak snapped on Friday, so that puts them in an “anti-swagger” role. For the uninitiated, when a team is on a long losing streak and snaps it, we bet them the next game because they’ve gotten their swagger back. So, the opposite is true when a team has a winning streak snapped as they lose their swagger. These types of plays hit all the time, and usually at a decent price. Sonny Gray (7-7, 3.80 ERA) starts for the Reds against Max Scherzer (14-4, 2.17 ERA) for the Dodgers.

College Football

Virginia Tech (+ 3) at West Virginia: This line is mostly down to 2.5, but we’re counting on the Hokies to win outright.

Minnesota (+ 2) at Colorado: You can get a better line now at 2.5 and hopefully we can get + 3 even if we have to lay -120.

Ball State (+ 7) at Wyoming: My MAC pick from last year continues to be a live underdog.

Colorado State (+ 14.5) at Toledo: I like Toledo from the MAC, but this is too many points for the Rockets to be laying.

East Carolina (+ 10) at Marshall: A few books have dipped to 9.5, so grab 10 if you can earlier in the day.

Oklahoma State (+ 4.5) at Boise State: This line is down to 3.5 at most books, but still playable as the Cowboys can pull the outright upset, though it’s nice to have a little insurance if it comes down to a late FG.

NFL (Sunday)

Panthers (+ 4) vs. Saints: Line down to 3 at a lot of books, so grab + 3.5 if you can.

Texans (+ 12.5) at Browns: Wait on this double-digit underdog as the line keeps climbing and could reach 14 by kickoff.

Raiders (+ 5.5) at Steelers: This line is also climbing as we’re seeing 6.5s all over. Can we get 7?

Dolphins (+ 3.5) vs. Bills: This is a mix of 3s and 3.5s (often with -120 attached to the side you want), so grab the hook if you can.

Eagles (+ 4) vs. 49ers: This is already at 3. We’re hoping it reverses, but I would pass for now (especially at + -120).

Vikings (+ 4.5) at Cardinals: This is down to 3.5 but still playable as long as it’s more than a FG.

Cowboys (+ 3) at Chargers: This was a full-fledged 3.5 for a few days but now is a mix of 3s and 3.5s. Obviously grab the hook if you can.

Chiefs-Ravens Over 55: Here’s a surprise. This total has actually dipped to 54.5 and even 54 at some books. I’m waiting to see if it dips lower.

Lions (+ 10.5) at Packers: Wait on this one as it’s up to 11 and even 11.5 at several books. It’s a long way until Monday night and we can be patient to see how high the public bets this one.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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