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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, weekend football picks (11/13)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

November 13, 2021 04:31 AM

It was a shame we passed on Friday’s two college football games in the Tuley’s Takes home office as both underdogs ended up covering, but hopefully the dogs keep barking the rest of the weekend.

Without further ado, let’s recap Friday’s action and take a peek into Contest Corner (as this is a big “reboot” weekend for contest players with the start of the second half of the NFL’s 18-week schedule) before updating our college and pro football plays from Point Spread Weekly.

Remember, you can check PSW or the NFL Best Bets file at for the reasoning behind my plays, but in this column we’re most focused on whether to bet our picks ASAP or wait for the lines to peak.

Friday’s recaps

CFB: No. 5 Cincinnati beat South Florida 45-28 Friday night, but did NOT cover as 24-point road favorite. The game went Over the betting total of 59. Boise State (-13.5) beat Wyoming 23-13, but also did NOT cover as Wyoming scored on a 74-yard TD pass play with just 4 seconds to play.

CBB: No. 2 UCLA beat No. 4 Villanova 86-77 in OT late Friday night: The ViewFromVegas is the Bruins ended up covering as 3-point home favorites with the extra time. The game also went Over the betting total of 140.5 points thanks to OT as it was tied at 67-67 at the end of regulation.

NBA: Favorites went 8-3 SU Friday with the upsets by the Hornets (+ 2.5 vs. Knicks), Thunder (+ 4.5 vs, Kings), T-Wolves (+ 1.5 at Lakers) and 7-4 ATS as Pelicans (+ 9.5) covered in 120-112 loss vs. Nets; Unders went 8-4 and lead 112-72-1 (60.5 percent) on the young season.

NHL: Favorites went 3-2 Friday with the upsets by the Sabres (+ 152 vs. Oilers) and Flyers (+ 158 at Hurricanes). Faves went 0-5 on the -1.5 puck line. Unders went 4-1.

Contest Corner

The SuperContest Reboot, a $500 version that runs in NFL Weeks 10-18, starts this week and has an entry deadline of 3 p.m. PT Saturday at the Westgate SuperBook. You must register in person just like the regular SuperContest and proxies are allowed as long as the contestant authorizes them and they both appear in person. The contest uses the same lines as the SC and SC Gold and has a separate pool. Deadline for weekly submissions are also the same as the other contests at 11:59 p.m. PT Saturdays (9 p.m. PT on the mobile app), but remember that the registration deadline is 3 p.m. PT Saturday.

For those who are already in the SuperContest and/or CircaSportsMillion, there are 2nd chances of sorts starting this week with the fourth 3-week mini-contest (Weeks 10-12) in the SuperContest at the Westgate SuperBook and 3rd Quarter (Weeks 10-13) in Circa Sports Million. 

Saturday’s Takes (and Sunday’s, too)


Colorado + 16.5 at UCLA: We advised waiting on this bet as the line was up to 17 early Friday and it’s continued to rise to 17.5 at all Vegas books and even some at 18. Monitor this one until it’s 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT kickoff.

Stanford + 12.5 at Oregon State: This one had drifted up to 13 at a few books, so grab that if you can.

East Carolina + 6 at Memphis: I advised grabbing the + 5.5 if you missed the + 6 and it’s down to 4.5 at some books so get the best line you can.

Central Florida + 7.5 at SMU: BetMGM had the last + 7.5 as of the writing of yesterday’s column and is a pretty solid 7 everywhere now.

Arkansas State + 3 at UL-Monroe: I advised waiting as I was hoping we’d get + 3.5, but that’s looking less likely as it’s a pretty solid 3. However, I’d still advise waiting in case it rises before the 5 p.m. ET/ 2 p.m. PT kickoff.

Utah State + 4.5 at San Jose State: This line looks like the most solid of all at 4.5. A few offshore books have gone to 4, so maybe grab this one now just in case it drops.


Teaser strategy update: After losing our teasers with the Ravens, we turn our attention to Sunday’s other advantage teasers (aka Wong Teasers or teasers that capture the key number of 3 and 7). Use these in whatever combinations you prefer: Browns from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Patriots, Vikings from + 3 to + 9 at Chargers, Eagles from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Broncos and Raiders + 2.5 to + 8.5 vs. the Chiefs.

Falcons + 9.5 at Cowboys: We were hoping this would get to 10, but it’s now down to 8.5 and even 8 at some books, so grab the best line you can.

Jets + 13 vs. Bills: This has dropped to 12.5 at most books. I’d grab + 13 if you still can as I don’t see it going any higher.

Lions + 9 at Steelers: This has dropped to 8 at some books, so grab the best number you can.

Panthers + 10 at Cardinals: This has actually risen to 10.5, so let’s wait to see how high it goes (that was my advice yesterday and I’m sticking to it). 

Seahawks + 4 at Packers: This has mostly dipped to 3.5 and even 3, mostly on speculation about whether Aaron Rodgers is going to be able to return. Grab the best number you can now if you think he might be held out of this game; wait if you think he’ll play as there’s a good chance it will go back to 4 or maybe even 4.5 when he’s cleared to play.  

Good luck today (and every day!).


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