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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, weekend football picks (10-16)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

October 16, 2021 05:52 AM

Friday was another great start to the sports betting weekend here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Unfortunately, we lost with our best bet on the Red Sox vs. the Astros in Game 1 of the ALCS. We had a 3-1 lead, but then the Astros rallied the rest of the way. Personally, I didn’t bet any of the college football underdogs on Friday night (see below for how both ranked teams failed to cover, plus Syracuse covered against Clemson), but hopefully this is a sign of good times to come that dogs will continue to bark this weekend.

Let’s get to the general betting recap from last night, and then look forward to my football picks. For the reasoning behind why I like these plays, check out the regular “Tuley’s Takes” column in Point Spread Weekly.

Friday’s recaps

MLB: Astros beat Red Sox 5-4 Friday night in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. The Astros closed as -141 home favorites and the game went Over the betting total of 8.5 runs on Boston HR in the top of the ninth inning. With the fave/home/Over result to start this round, faves are 13-5 overall in the playoffs, home teams improved to 12-6 and Overs improved to 10-8. If you want to include the wild-card games, faves lead 14-6 overall in playoffs, home teams are also 14-6 and Overs took a 10-9-1 lead.

CFB: No. 9 Oregon rallied to beat California 24-17 late Friday, but the Ducks did NOT cover as 13.5-point home favorites. The game stayed Under the betting total of 53.5 points). Even later Friday night (after 11:30 p.m. PT), No. 24 San Diego State outlasted San Jose State 19-13 in 2OT, but the Aztecs also didn't cover as 9.5-point road favorites. That game stayed Under the low total of 41 points even with overtime as it was tied 6-6 at the end of regulation.

NHL: Favorites went 2-1 Friday with the lone upset by the Canucks (+ 120 at Flyers). The Devils (-131 vs. Blackhawks) and Wild (-172 at Ducks) won as chalk. Overs went 2-1 Friday and lead 11-6-2 after the first four days of the regular season.

Saturday Takes (and Sunday NFL, too)

Virginia Tech + 5 vs. Pittsburgh: Number looking pretty solid; wouldn’t take fewer than 4.5 points.

Northwestern + 2 vs. Rutgers: Some books outside Vegas have gone to added juice on Rutgers -2, so wait to see if we can get Northwestern + 2.5 or 3.

TCU + 13.5 at Oklahoma: Wait to see if we can get 14 points, though 13.5 should be good enough.

Auburn + 4 at Arkansas: We were waiting to see if this went higher, and now you can get + 4.5 or even 5.

Jaguars + 3 vs. Dolphins in London: We hope you grabbed the + 3.5 the other day when we recommended it, but should still be fine at + 3. The Jags are also playable in teasers, and I’d tie them with your choice of Chiefs -1 at Washington (several books down to Chiefs -6.5, so you can now tease down to -0.5), Panthers + 7 vs. Vikings, Chargers + 9 at Ravens and Cardinals + 8.5 at Browns (many books up to Browns -3 and even -3.5, so you can tease the Cards up to 9 or 9.5).

Texans + 10 at Colts: Some books have gone to 10.5, so grab that if you can, especially as I’ve seen some books at 9.5.

Bears + 4.5 vs. Packers: I’ve gone back and forth on this game (didn’t include in my five plays on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page in PSW), but with line steaming up to 5 and 5.5 the other day, I said we were looking for + 6 and that's now available.

Chargers + 3 at Ravens, plus Chargers in teasers: As of early Saurday, the 3's are gone, but Chargers are playable in 6-point teasers as you get + 8.5.

Giants + 10.5 vs. Rams: I picked this in Point Spread Weekly, assuming Mike Glennon was going to have to start for the Giants. Daniel Jones has cleared concussion protocol in time and will now start. I prefer, but try to get + 8.5 or higher.

Raiders + 4 at  Broncos: The 4’s had disappeared the other day, but as of early Sunday morning they're back.

Seahawks + 5 at Steelers: Looking pretty solid.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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