Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, weekend football picks (10-16)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 16, 2021 05:52 AM

Friday was another great start to the sports betting weekend here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Unfortunately, we lost with our best bet on the Red Sox vs. the Astros in Game 1 of the ALCS. We had a 3-1 lead, but then the Astros rallied the rest of the way. Personally, I didn’t bet any of the college football underdogs on Friday night (see below for how both ranked teams failed to cover, plus Syracuse covered against Clemson), but hopefully this is a sign of good times to come that dogs will continue to bark this weekend.

Let’s get to the general betting recap from last night, and then look forward to my football picks. For the reasoning behind why I like these plays, check out the regular “Tuley’s Takes” column in Point Spread Weekly.

Friday’s recaps

MLB: Astros beat Red Sox 5-4 Friday night in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. The Astros closed as -141 home favorites and the game went Over the betting total of 8.5 runs on Boston HR in the top of the ninth inning. With the fave/home/Over result to start this round, faves are 13-5 overall in the playoffs, home teams improved to 12-6 and Overs improved to 10-8. If you want to include the wild-card games, faves lead 14-6 overall in playoffs, home teams are also 14-6 and Overs took a 10-9-1 lead.

CFB: No. 9 Oregon rallied to beat California 24-17 late Friday, but the Ducks did NOT cover as 13.5-point home favorites. The game stayed Under the betting total of 53.5 points). Even later Friday night (after 11:30 p.m. PT), No. 24 San Diego State outlasted San Jose State 19-13 in 2OT, but the Aztecs also didn't cover as 9.5-point road favorites. That game stayed Under the low total of 41 points even with overtime as it was tied 6-6 at the end of regulation.

NHL: Favorites went 2-1 Friday with the lone upset by the Canucks (+ 120 at Flyers). The Devils (-131 vs. Blackhawks) and Wild (-172 at Ducks) won as chalk. Overs went 2-1 Friday and lead 11-6-2 after the first four days of the regular season.

Saturday Takes (and Sunday NFL, too)

Virginia Tech + 5 vs. Pittsburgh: Number looking pretty solid; wouldn’t take fewer than 4.5 points.

Northwestern + 2 vs. Rutgers: Some books outside Vegas have gone to added juice on Rutgers -2, so wait to see if we can get Northwestern + 2.5 or 3.

TCU + 13.5 at Oklahoma: Wait to see if we can get 14 points, though 13.5 should be good enough.

Auburn + 4 at Arkansas: We were waiting to see if this went higher, and now you can get + 4.5 or even 5.

Jaguars + 3 vs. Dolphins in London: We hope you grabbed the + 3.5 the other day when we recommended it, but should still be fine at + 3. The Jags are also playable in teasers, and I’d tie them with your choice of Chiefs -1 at Washington (several books down to Chiefs -6.5, so you can now tease down to -0.5), Panthers + 7 vs. Vikings, Chargers + 9 at Ravens and Cardinals + 8.5 at Browns (many books up to Browns -3 and even -3.5, so you can tease the Cards up to 9 or 9.5).

Texans + 10 at Colts: Some books have gone to 10.5, so grab that if you can, especially as I’ve seen some books at 9.5.

Bears + 4.5 vs. Packers: I’ve gone back and forth on this game (didn’t include in my five plays on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page in PSW), but with line steaming up to 5 and 5.5 the other day, I said we were looking for + 6 and that's now available.

Chargers + 3 at Ravens, plus Chargers in teasers: As of early Saurday, the 3's are gone, but Chargers are playable in 6-point teasers as you get + 8.5.

Giants + 10.5 vs. Rams: I picked this in Point Spread Weekly, assuming Mike Glennon was going to have to start for the Giants. Daniel Jones has cleared concussion protocol in time and will now start. I prefer, but try to get + 8.5 or higher.

Raiders + 4 at  Broncos: The 4’s had disappeared the other day, but as of early Sunday morning they're back.

Seahawks + 5 at Steelers: Looking pretty solid.

Good luck today (and every day!).

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.


View All
  • Lauri_Markanen

    Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Contest Corner, Wednesday play (12/1)

    As we were getting ready for the Tuesday night sports betting action to begin with the NBA, NHL and college basketball, all I could think of is that I...
  • baylor

    Early CFB Conference Championship Sharp Report

    Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 9 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 70 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown...
  • reynolds

    Hero World Challenge best bets

    While the official PGA Tour season is on pause until January, an elite field of 20 players gathers this week for the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas....
  • finocchiaro

    Best bets for Font-Aldo UFC card

    After a week off for Thanksgiving, the UFC heads into its last three productions of 2021 starting with Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex...
  • USATSI_17242641

    Peterson: Best bet for Nebraska vs. NC State

    The Big Ten/ACC Challenge will be decided on Wednesday and NC State will look to both help its profile, and also that of the ACC, as the Wolfpack...
  • vontobelnfl

    NFL Week 12 lessons learned

    It was an emotional week for me in the NFL, as the Indianapolis Colts’ failed cover cost me a share of the first-place prize in the Westgate SuperContest...
  • vontobelnba

    Three NBA trends to watch

    It was a somewhat quiet week in the NBA with the league taking a night off for Thanksgiving, but there is still plenty to discuss. This week we touch...
  • macneil

    Hockey bettors must beat closing line

    In the end, wins and losses are really all that matters, because every sports bettor’s goal is to make money. However, wins and losses don’t...
  • appelbaum

    Five NFL games wise guys like

    NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 12, going 8-7 ATS. Dogs are now 101-77 ATS (57 percent) on the season. A $100 bettor taking every...
  • hill

    NFL capsules for Week 13

    Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints The Dallas Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) visit the New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU and ATS) on Thursday night as both...
  • moore

    Let's re-examine Gonzaga wagers

    Those predictions we heard about this college basketball season being filled with upsets and uncertainty? Well, they seem to be pretty accurate just a...
  • makinennfl

    Simulating rest of NFL season

    (To view the charts associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) All NFL teams have either five or six games left in their 2021-22...

VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!


  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store