Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, updated weekend football picks (11/20)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Sam_Hartman

We got back on the winning track Friday night to head into the weekend in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

After suffering bad beats in the NBA on Wednesday and Thursday, we returned to the gridiron Friday night as our top play, Southern Mississippi beat Louisiana Tech 35-19 as a 15.5-point road underdog. Longtime readers will recognize that as a “Tuley Cover.” That’s when an underdog not only covers and not only pulls an outright upset, but also ends up “covering” by winning by more points than it was getting. It’s no big deal when a 2.5-point dog wins by a field goal, but when a double-digit dog wins by more than the spread, that’s pretty impressive (in this case, covering the spread by 31.5 points!

Hopefully our other dogs are just as live the rest of the weekend. Let’s recap the rest of the betting action from Friday, and then we’ll update our college and pro football picks from Point Spread Weekly as we try to decide whether to bet ASAP or to wait until closer to kickoff.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Suns beat Mavericks 112-104 for their 11th straight win:, but the Suns did NOT cover as 8.5-point home favorites (and there were a lot of moans from the home crowd on 2 late missed free throws that could have covered the spread -- and then a dribble-out after the Suns grabbed the rebound after the final miss). The game went Over the betting total of 211. Faves went 5-3 SU Friday with the Celtics routing the Lakers 130-108 in a game that closed pick-’em, but dogs led 6-2 ATS. Upsets were by the Hornets (+ 1 vs. Pacers), Pelicans (+ 4.5 vs. Clippers) and Raptors (+ 3.5 at Kings). Magic (+ 9.5 at Nets), Thunder (+ 12.5 at Bucks) and Mavericks (+ 8.5 at Suns) covered in losses. Overs went 6-3, but Unders still lead 142-94-3 (60.2 percent) on the season.

CBB: No. 4 Michigan beat UNLV 74-61 late Friday (game started after 1 a.m. ET/10 p.m. PT and ended just before midnight PT) and barely covered after closing as 12.5-point favorite at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas, though didn't cover for early bettors laying -14 or -13.5. The game also stayed just Under betting total of 135.5..  

 

CFB: No. 19 San Diego State (-11) held off UNLV 28-20 late Friday, but did NOT cover. No. 24 Houston (-9.5) covered in 31-13 win vs. Memphis. Southern Miss (+ 15.5) upset Louisiana Tech 35-19. Air Force (-1.5) outlasted Nevada 41-39 in 3OT and ended up covering after closing as short fave (opened as short 2-point dog at most books).

NHL: Favorites went 2-0 on a short Friday card as the Canucks (short -111 faves in 3-2 win vs. Jets) and Avalanche (-145 in 7-3 win at Kraken) both won. Over/Unders split 1-1..

Saturday’s Takes

CFB

South Alabama + 28 at Tennessee: This line drifted up to +  28.5 at a few books, so I advised waiting to see how high it went, but it appears to have settled back at 28.

Florida State + 2.5 at Boston College: This line has been dropping, so we advised you to grab the best line you can. As of late Friday night, plenty of 2’s still available.

Louisiana + 4.5 at Liberty: This is pretty solid at 4.5, but I’d grab ASAP instead of risking missing out on it.

Wake Forest + 4.5 at Clemson: Grab 4.5 if you can as most books are down to 4. 

Baylor pick-’em at Kansas State: Some books have gone to K-State -1, so I’d wait to see if it goes higher as we have until kickoff at 5:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. PT. 

NFL

Lions + 10 at Browns: This was made before knowing that Jared Goff was questionable (of course, Baker Mayfield is also banged up). However, it now appears that Goff will sit out and be replaced by Tim Boyle. The line is up to 12.5, but I’m no longer interested . Perhaps, I’ll take a chance if it steams to 14.

Colts + 7.5 at Bills: In Thursday’s column, we advised everyone to grab 7.5 if they could, and it’s still recommended to take + 7 even-money.

Washington + 3.5 at Panthers: Try to grab the hook at -110 if you can, though most books are at -120.

Cowboys + 2.5 at Chiefs: Some books have gone to added juice on the Chiefs -2.5, so I’m holding out hope that we can get + 3 by Sunday.

Giants + 11 at Buccaneers: A few books have dipped to 10.5, but I’m still holding out hope that the public bets this higher over the weekend.

Teaser strategy: In the NFL Best Bets column elsewhere on VSiN.com, I went with Saints + 7.5/Cowboys + 8.5 as my top two-team, 6-point teaser of the week, but also using combinations with Vikings + 8.5 vs. the Packers, Raiders + 7 vs. the Bengals and Seahawks + 8.5 vs. the Cardinals.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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