Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, updated NFL best bets for wild-card weekend (1/15)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 15, 2022 04:07 AM
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Friday was a lot of fun as we got out of the Tuley’s Takes home office and celebrated with the prize winners of the Circa Sports Million and Circa Survivor at the cocktail reception/big-check awards ceremony in the Detroit Ballroom on the 12th floor of the D Hotel in downtown Las Vegas.

In addition to getting to see my proxy client, Tony “DURBIFY” Gordon get his big check from Jeffrey Benson and his custom-made (and personally embroidered) blue blazer from Derek Stevens, we were able to congratulate many other prizes winners I’ve only communicated with through email, text or Twitter. or texted with We still miss football on Thursday nights, but it was still a fun night of sports betting action last night with basketball and hockey. There was JARDON 69, 5th-place finisher in Circa Sports Million, who first heard of the Circa contests on VSiN. There was also Jason Jarvis (JJarvis117), who finished 4th and learned of the contests when he met Stevens’ brother Greg on a flight. There was also Hannibal Johnson (HANNIBAL BARCA), who finished 3rd and 5th and stuck to his guns about not hedging and using the same picks on both those entries. And also runner-up Scott Porter (Mad Russian), an elementary science teacher near my home in North Las Vegas, who actually tied DURBIFY for 1st place but lost the tiebreaker as DURBIFY had 17 winning weeks vs. 14 for Mad Russian.

And four of the five Circa Survivors winners were present, plus Stevens played a 5-minute VSiN-produced video that recapped the full season of Survivor and how the 5 winners navigated the minefield of major upsets throughout the year.

Before going to the party, I was able to watch the first leg of our NHL First-Period Over 1.5 parlay hit at the Rampart with my friend Ed Sehon, Duane Colucci of the Rampart (both of which contribute to my “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column on Saturdays, plus John Avello of DraftKings as the Panthers led the Star 2-0 at the end of the first 20 minutes. I then drove down to Circa, where I watched the second leg hit with the Coyotes-Avalanche First-Period Over 1.5 as the Avalanche led 2-1 at the end of the first period.

Now, as I warned in Friday’s column, many books were posting 1P Over 2 on those two games. If you were able to get 1P Over 1.5, you cashed both. If you had to go Over 2 on both games (and most books did it one way or the other, instead of going with one at 1.5 and one at 2), then you would have pushed on the first game but then won with the parlay reduced to a straight bet on the other.

We hope our followers cashed one way or the other.

Now, I am troubled to see some bookmakers going to 1P Over 2 as it’s bound to turn many future wins (at 1.5) into pushes. The more people betting these plays and winning is going to cause more books to do that like we saw in the winter/spring of 2019, so I don’t want to continue spoon-feeding these plays to non-regular readers of this column. As for regular readers, I feel I’ve shown you which games to target these past couple of weeks so you should be able to figure out which 1P Overs I’m playing, so I’m leaving you to figure them out over the rest of the weekend while I stick with the NFL in our “takes” section after we recap Friday’s major betting action.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 5-4 SU and ATS Friday night with the upsets by the Magic (+ 11.5 at Hornets), Pistons (+ 9.5 vs. Raptors), Warriors (+ 2.5 at Bulls) and Mavericks (+ 2.5 at Grizzlies). Overs went 6-3.

CBB: No. 7 Purdue routed Nebraska 92-65, covering as a 20-point home favorite. Also in the Big Ten and the Top 25, No. 25 Illinois beat Michigan, covering as an 11-point home fave. 

NHL: Favorites went 3-0 Friday with the Panthers (-170 in 7-1 rout vs. Stars), Wild (-155 in 7-3 win vs. Ducks) and Avalanche (-650 in 4-3 shootout win vs. Coyotes) all won as home faves. Overs went 3-0 and so did 1st Period Overs at 1.5 (2-0-1 if grading vs. Stars-Panthers 1P Over 2).

Saturday’s Takes (and Sunday and Monday NFL)

Note: for reasons on why I like these plays, check out the regular “Tuley’s Takes” in PSW or the NFL Best Bets column at VSiN.com as we’re mostly concerned here with timing when to make our bets.

Raiders-Bengals Under 49: There were reports of inclement weather when we posted yesterday, so I advised readers to go Under 49 ASAP. I hope most followers did as the total was down to 48.5 at most books as of late Friday night.

Patriots + 4 at Bills: Now this line move I misread as I advised readers to grab the + 4 on Friday, but it’s gone up to 4.5 at most books and 5 at Circa in Las Vegas, so get the best line you can.

Buccaneers teased from -8.5 to -2.5: Obviously if you have a book that’s dealing Bucs -8 and can tease down to -2, that’s even better. My preferred two-team, 6-point teaser of the weekend is the Bucs -2.5/49ers + 9.

49ers + 3 at Cowboys: In addition to betting the 49ers in teasers as mentioned above, I’m also waiting to see if this goes to + 3.5 for my straight bets. Many books have gone to Cowboys -115 or -120, so we’re holding out hope here in Vegas. (For those in states with DraftKings, we pointed out that you could have had 49ers + 3.5 -115 on Friday, though they’ve gone back to 3 as of early Saturday.)

Steelers + 12.5 at Chiefs: This line has stayed pretty solid, but I still think we can wait to see if we can get + 13 or better.

Cardinals + 4 at Rams: I think the time to take the 4 is now. We’re seeing some indications this could dip to 3.5.

 

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