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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, updated betting stats, Saturday best bets 5/7

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 7, 2022 06:46 AM
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Friday was a full day of betting action with the Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs and other horse racing cards during the day and then the NBA and NHL playoffs at night along with MLB (minus 6 games that were postponed on the day) and an USFL game.

I scored with Secret Oath in the Kentucky Oaks at 4-1, so be sure to check out “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” at VSiN.com/horses as me and my crew of handicapping friends will have our plays on the Churchill Downs undercard and on the Kentucky Derby posted on Saturday morning after scratches.

As for our sports bets, we lost our Best Bet on the Hurricanes + 110 at the Bruins. That dropped our record to 50-32-1 ATS (61 percent) the past 83 days as we’re trying to stay above 60 percent with our top play of the day.

We at least made the right call by not using the Rangers vs. the Yankees as our Best Bet since that game was postponed (though, I guess a no-action is actually better than a loss!). I did have a small loser on the Rockies and also lost our play from earlier in the week on the Stars-Panthers Under 36.5 as that game flew over thanks to three long offensive TDs in a league that hasn’t had a lot of explosive offensive plays. Anyway, that total closed at 33.5 (I saw as low as 33) after the league announced the clock would keep running on incomplete passes in the first and third quarters in an attempt to help the game fit their TV windows of under 3 hours. I’m passing on the rest of the games in USFL Week 4.

Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s action and try to get back on the winning track on Saturday in addition to our horse racing action.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Mavericks (-1) beat the Suns 103-94 late Friday to pull within 2-1 in their 2nd-round series. The game stayed Under the betting total of 218 by 21 points. Earlier, the 76ers beat the Heat 99-79 after closing as 1-point home faves to also pull within 2-1, and that game stayed Under 210.5 by 32.5 points. Fave and home teams went 2-0 SU and ATS. Unders also went 2-0.

More NBA: Faves are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS so far in this round, 38-15 SU and 32-21 ATS (60.4 percent) overall. Home teams are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS this round, and lead 32-21 SU while retaking lead at 27-26 ATS. The zig-zag went 2-0 ATS on Friday (76ers and Mavericks in that role after losing the previous game), so the zig-zag improved to 4-2 ATS in this round and 20-21 ATS overall. Unders are 6-4 in this round and improved to 33-20 (62.3 percent).

NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 Friday with the upsets by the Maple Leafs (+ 100 in 5-2 win at Lightning) and Wild (+ 110 in 5-1 win at Blues) as they both took 2-1 series leads, along with the Oilers (-145 in 8-2 rout at Kings). The Bruins (-140) beat the Hurricanes 4-2 to pull within 2-1. Overs went 3-1.

More NHL: Faves lead 12-8 SU so far in the playoffs (10-10 on -1.5 puck line). Higher seeds (all on the road) went 3-1 Friday, but home teams still lead 11-9. The zig-zag (which is not usually used as much in the NHL playoffs) is 8-4 so far. Overs went 3-1 and took the lead at 11-9 overall.

MLB: Faves went 6-3 on Friday with 6 games being postponed. The upsets were by the White Sox (+ 148 in 4-2 win at Red Sox), Cardinals (+ 120 in 3-2 win at Giants) and Rays (+ 110 in 8-7 win at Mariners). Home teams went 5-4. Unders went 7-2.

More MLB: Faves lead 238-145 SU (62.1 percent) on the season with 7 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU). Home teams lead 202-188. Unders went 7-2 to improve to 206-166-18 (55.4 percent).

USFL: Stars (+ 1) held off Panthers 26-25 to kick off USFL Week 4 as Panther kicker clanked 21-yard FG off upright as time expired. The game flew Over the low betting total of 33.5 points. Faves dropped to 8-5 SU and 6-6-1 ATS on the season. Unders dipped to 8-5.

Saturday’s Takes

Grizzlies + 7 at Warriors: I’m actually going against the zig-zag here as the Warriors are in that role after losing the last game, but I believe this line is too high. I know the Warriors were road favorites for the first two games of the series in Memphis and thus should be higher favorites at home, but Ja Morant and the Grizzlies showed with the two close games that they’re not going to go down quietly (heck, they went 2-0 ATS with the short number, so I fully expect at least one of these games on the Warriors’ floor for the points to come into play, and wouldn’t be surprised at all if they pull another upset.

Penguins + 110 vs. Rangers: I’m not sure if any of the lower seeds will be able to get a win at home on Saturday in pivotal Games 3s at home (like the Bruins did on Friday), but the Penguins look like the most likely so that’s the only dog I’m looking to play.

MLB underdogs: On principal due to the anti-swagger role of the Yankees after having their 11-game losing streak on Wednesday (though the effects are certainly watered down after a couple of days off), I’m taking the Rangers against the Yankees, though only about half a unit. Other dogs I’m considering are the Cardinals + 140 at the Giants, White Sox + 100 at the Red Sox and Rockies -105 at the Diamondbacks. I’m not willing to fade the Reds with the Pirates.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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