Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, updated betting stats, Saturday best bets 5/21

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 21, 2022 05:25 AM
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Friday was another long sports betting with the PGA Championship getting most of our attention along with horse racing with the Black-Eyed Susan card during the day and then the NBA and NHL playoffs along with plenty of baseball.

Our best bets started great with the Diamondbacks + 130 beating the Cubs in a homerfest at Wrigley Field in the afternoon and the Orioles + 125 following with a win later vs. the Rays. Things were looking even better when the Mavericks + 6.5 were leading by double-digits over the Warriors at halftime, but then the Warriors rallied to not only win the game but also cover the spread. We also lost with the Rangers vs. the Hurricanes to give back all our earlier profits.

Oh, well, we’ll do it all again on Saturday, including the Preakness card (check out our “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” file at VSiN.com/horses).

For our sports betting purposes here, let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting results and look over our options for Saturday.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors rallied in 2nd half to beat Mavericks 126-117 to take 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. The ViewFromVegas is the Warriors also ended up covering as 6.5-point home favorites. The game flew Over the betting total of 216 points. Faves (and home teams) improved to 3-1 SU and ATS in this round. Overs also 3-1.

More NBA: Faves lead 49-24 SU and 42-31 ATS (57.5 percent) overall in the playoffs. Home teams also lead 46-27 SU but just 39-34 ATS (53.4 percent). The zig-zag theory drops to 1-1 ATS this round with the Mavericks' loss, but still leads 31-28 ATS overall. Unders dipped to 44-29 (60.3 percent) overall.

NHL: Oilers (+ 145) upset the Flames 5-3 late Friday to even their 2nd-round series at 1-1. The game went Over the betting total of 6.5 goals). Earlier, Hurricanes (-165) beat Rangers 2-0 to take 2-0 series lead (game stayed Under 5.5). Faves/dogs, home/road and Over/Under all split 1-1.

More NHL: Faves/dogs remain .500 this round at 4-4. Faves still lead 37-22 overall (but 26-33 on -1.5  puck line). Home/road split 4-4. Home teams lead 36-23 overall. The zig-zag is 1-1 SU this round and is 26-21 SU overall. Unders are 6-2 this round (both Overs in the Oilers-Flames series), but Overs still lead 33-24-2 (57.9 percent).

MLB: Faves went 8-5 with upsets by Diamondbacks (+ 130 in 10-6 slugfest at Cubs), Orioles (+ 125 in 8-6 win vs. Rays in 13 innings), Rangers (+ 152 in 3-0 win at Astros), A's (+ 162 in 4-2 win at Angels) and Padres (+ 112 in 8-7 win at Giants in 10 innings). Road teams went 8-5. Unders 7-6.

More MLB: Faves lead 345-223 SU (60.7 percent) on season with 14 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent percent, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 299-283 (51.4 percent, usually closer to 54 closer). UUnders lead 296-256-30 (53.6 percent), down from being 60 percent just 25 days ago.

Saturday’s Takes

Heat + 6.5 at Celtics: As I said on “The Lookahead” on Sunday night and wrote in Point Spread Weekly and in this column all week, I plan to go with the dogs in this evenly matched series. After a split in Miami, we get the Heat + 6.5 in the zig-zag role. Jimmy Butler and Co. should be able to bounce back from their Game 2 loss that has the whole world seemingly handing the series to the Celtics. Even if they don’t win outright, hopefully we at least get a close game to cover the spread.

Panthers + 6.5 vs. Stallions: No, the NHL’s Panthers are off until Sunday, but this is the USFL’s Panthers who were the preseason title favorites but are tied for the league’s worst record at 1-4 (they’re also 1-4 ATS). They’re playing the USFL’s last undefeated team, the Stallions (5-0 SU and ATS), but I maintain that there’s not that much difference between the top team in the league and the worst, so I’m taking the Panthers plus the points. It was as high as Stallion -7, but I feel the money has been on the right side and the Panthers give them a game. I’m passing on both Overs in Saturday’s games, but USFL bettors might want to grab the Over 39 or 39.5 for Sunday’s Gamblers-Generals game.

MLB dogs: After a sweep of our swagger plays Friday on the Diamondbacks and Orioles, it’s hard to find a live dog on Saturday’s card. We’ll go with smaller plays on the D-backs + 130 at the Cubs and the Padres + 125 at the Giants.

NHL dog: I’ve outsmarted myself so far in the Blues-Avalanche series as I lost with the Blues in Game 1 and then passed on them in Game 2 when they won at + 210 dogs. If I do anything in Game 3, it’ll be a small play on Blues + 150.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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