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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, updated betting stats, picks for Saturday 4/23

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Friday turned out to be a great start to the weekend in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Just about every NBA playoff game seems to be a roller-coaster ride (as the old saying goes, every team makes a run), but our Best Bet on the Hawks + 1.5 came out on the winning end as they outlasted the Heat 111-110. This was a zig-zag play (aka “loser of the last”) as they actually went 3-0 ATS on Friday after being only 4-8 ATS in this year’s playoffs heading into the night. I passed on the other 2 zig-zag plays as they were chalk (the Bucks and Suns), but still happy to improve to 45-23-1 ATS (66.2 percent) with our top play of the day the past 69 days. It continues to be a helluva run and I hope most readers have been having a very profitable time as we close on 10 week since the start of the run.

We also won our second-best bet of the night as the Panthers-Generals game in the USFL easily stayed Under the betting total of 41. It was so easy that while I was sweating out the Hawks game, I was wishing I had just used the USFL Under as it never threatened to come close with the Generals winning 10-6.

The Blue Jays came through for us with our MLB underdog plays as they beat the Astros 4-3 at + 150, though we lost with the Padres. Personally, the profit on those plays paid for our small NHL 1P Over parlay on the Senators-Blue Jackets and Avalanche-Oilers, but overall it was obviously a very profitable day.

One follower on Twitter chastised me for continuing to post NHL 1P Over plays, but I explained that I still have readers requesting them but I’ve made it cleared they’ve cooled off and that we shouldn’t be going crazy on these plays at the end of the regular season and should be backing off or lowering our unit size. I’m assuming most readers have done that as this is the lone complaint I’ve heard (maybe they don’t like basketball and haven’t been profiting from those plays).

Anyway, I believe I’ve also made it clear that we should be wagering more on other picks as I’ve been listing them last in my list of priorities each day for the last couple of weeks.

Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting action and try to keep the good times rolling.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 2-1 SU and ATS Friday with covers by Bucks (-2.5 in 111-81 rout at Bulls) and Suns (-2.5 in 114-111 win at Pelicans). The upset was by the Hawks (+ 2 in 111-110 win vs. Heat). Road teams went 2-1 SU and ATS. Zig-zag teams went 3-0 ATS as the Hawks, Brewers and Suns all lost the previous game. Unders went 2-1.

More NBA: Faves lead 17-6 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2 percent) in 1st round after going 2-1 SU and ATS Friday (all were on the road). Home teams dipped to 13-10 SU while road teams took a 12-11 ATS lead. The zig-zag is now 7-8 ATS (4-4 in Game 2s, 3-4 in Game 3s after Friday's 3-0 ATS). Unders lead 13-10.

USFL: Generals beat the Panthers 10-6 in the USFL on Friday night. The Generals covered as 1-point favorites while the game stayed way Under the betting total of 40.5 points. Faves lead 4-1 SU and ATS on the young season while Unders also lead 4-1.

MLB: Faves went 9-5 with the upsets by the Blue Jays (+ 160 in 4-3 win at Astros), Orioles (+ 160 in 5-3 win at Angels), Pirates (+ 157 in 4-2 win at Cubs), Red Sox (+ 134 in 4-3 win at Rays) and Twins (+ 100 in 2-1 win vs. White Sox). Road teams went 9-5. Unders dominated again at 12-2.

More MLB: Faves went 9-5 to improve to 126-78 SU (61.8 percent) on the young season with 2 pick-'ems. Road teams went 9-5 Friday, but home teams still lead 108-98 over road teams, which led 65-63 just 6 days ago. Unders went 12-2 Friday to go back over 60 percent at 120-75-11 (61.5 percent).

NHL: Faves went 3-0 with the Senators-Blue Jackets closing pick-'em in Senator's 2-1 win (some could say faves were 4-0 as Senators closed as small chalk at a few books, though they were dogs on the puck line, so early chalk bettors might have played Blue Jackets). Over/Unders split 2-2.

Saturday’s Takes

Timberwolves + 3 vs. Grizzlies: Of the NBA teams in zig-zag roles on Saturday, I don’t like backing teams trailing 3-0 like the Raptors (in case they just throw in the towel) and I also don’t like laying points with the Jazz -6 (tempting to ride the Mavericks again, as I’ve done twice this week!) and Nets -3 (also tempting to take the Celtics plus the points, but passing with the Nets in the zig-zag role). A lot of people are saying the T-Wolves can’t possibly bounce back from blowing leads of 26 and 25 points, but I see it as them still being able to play with the Grizzlies and hopefully earn a split of their games at home and even the series.

Stallions-Gamblers Under 40.5: I almost made this my Best Bet of the day, but still trusting my NBA handicapping more. I’m still betting the Unders in all the USFL games so far (4-1 through Friday) and even though the Maulers-Stars game is more likely to challenge Panthers-Generals as the lowest-scoring game of the weekend as the Maulers’ offense showed nothing last week, it’s still hard to recommend an Under 35 as it currently stands in the market.

MLB underdogs: We’ve been feeling better about our baseball picks lately with the Tigers coming through for us on Thursday and the Blue Jays yesterday. Our recommended plays for Saturday are the Brewers + 130 at the Phillies, and the Rockies + 130 in Game 1 of their doubleheader at the Tigers.

NHL 1P Overs: Again, as we wrote yesterday, we should have been parlaying more NHL favorites as they’ve been on a major role as we’ve been documenting in our nightly recaps (hopefully some of you have taken the cue, especially in games between teams fighting for playoff spots or seedings vs. teams playing out the string). Also, as we described above, take these recommended 1P Over plays with a grain of salt as they’ve cooled off and we’ve just been betting them ourselves in small parlays in case they have a good night: Hurricanes-Devils and Maple Leafs-Panthers.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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