Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, updated ATS stats, Saturday Best Bets 6/4

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Friday, June 3, 2022, is a day we’ll remember for a long time in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

After staying up late the night before to post this column, I woke up around 9 a.m. PT to learn that Brent Musburger, our beloved Uncle Brent (legendary broadcaster and the face of VSiN when we launched in 2017) was retiring from his moonlighting gig as the Las Vegas Raiders’ radio voice. But as historic as that was, the highlight of the day was my middle child, Peyton (named after Walter Payton, NOT Peyton Manning), graduating from high school.

Quick little story: I was at Uncle Brent’s 80th birthday party in 2019 when I admitted to him that while I had friends and family that thought it was awesome that I was working with the great Brent Musburger, my kids were not impressed. That is, until we were watching the “Cars 2” movie and he came on as “Brent Mustangburger” – then they were like “That’s your boss? That’s cool!” He got a kick out of that story.

So, it was a pretty great day on Friday, especially when I also won my Best Bet of the day on the Rangers over the Lightning in the NHL playoffs. That improved our record to 7-1 ATS the past 8 days with our top play of the day.

We lost our play on the Maulers-Generals Under in the USFL, but also split our two MLB dogs with the Padres + 160 beating the Brewers 7-0 while the Rockies lost 3-1 to the Braves in 10 innings. Note: for our chalk-playing followers, I also mentioned the Dodgers -155 vs. the Mets was an anti-swagger play against the Mets who had just had their 6-game winning streak snapped the day before (note: we have another anti-swagger play on Saturday).

Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting results and try to keep the good times rolling on Saturday (as I’ll be following the action while we have Peyton’s graduation party at the house; I’m hoping to report that our recent winnings more than cover the expenses for the party).

Friday’s recaps

NHL: Rangers beat Lightning 3-2 to take 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The ViewFromVegas is the Rangers did it as + 112 home underdogs while the game stayed Under the betting total of 5.5 goals. The Rangers won their 8th straight home playoff game. The Lightning's streak of 18 straight wins after a playoff loss also was snapped.

More NHL: Faves/dogs are back to .500 at 2-2 in the conference finals round with the Rangers' 2 upset wins. Fave still lead 49-28 overall. Home teams are a perfect 4-0 so far this round and lead 48-29 overall. Over/Unders are back to .500 at 2-2 in this round while Overs still lead 42-33-2 (56 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves went 12-3 with the only upsets by the Twins (+ 200 in 9-3 win at Blue Jays), Padres (+ 150 in 7-0 shutout at Brewers) and Nationals (+ 118 in 8-5 win at Reds). Road teams went 11-4 (interesting note in my humble opinion: road faves were 8-1 on the day while home faves were just 4-3). Overs went 12-3.

More MLB: Faves improved to 465-296 SU (61.1 percent) with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves ahead of that pace). Home teams dipped to 402-376 (51.7 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders dipped to 386-354-38 (52.2 percent), way down from 60 percent just over a month ago.

USFL: Generals beat Maulers 29-18 in Friday’s lone USFL game to kick off Week 8. The Generals also covered as 9-point favorites and the game went Over the betting total of 41 points. Faves are now 21-8 SU on the season but just 15-13-1 ATS. Overs improve to 17-11 (14-3 since Unders led 8-4 after Week 3).

NBA: Saving this in advance of Sunday’s Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Underdogs (the Celtics in Game 1) and road teams started 1-0 SU and ATS in NBA Finals, while Overs also started 1-0. Faves dipped to 54-28 SU and 47-35 ATS (57.3 percent) overall. Home teams dipped to 49-33 SU and 42-40 ATS (51.2 percent) overall. Unders still lead 48-34 (58.5 percent) overall.

Saturday’s Takes

Avalanche-Oilers Under 7: in honor of the World Series of Poker having started this spring (it’s been moved from the Rio to Bally’s/Paris on the Strip, plus online bracelet events that I’ll be playing in to try to earn more college money!), I’m pot-committed on the Under in this series as we’re fading the public. We lost Game 1 when the total was steamed from 6.5 to 7 and it flew Over in the Avalanche’s 8-6 victory and then were vindicated in the Avalanche’s 4-0 win when the total was 7 and even 7.5 at some books. The total has now settled at 7-flat (-110 both ways) for Saturday’s Game 3 and we expect things to tighten up like last game with the Oilers at home and trying to avoid going down 3-0.

MLB dogs: As we mentioned above, we have an anti-swagger play against the Blue Jays as their 8-game winning streak was snapped by the Twins on Friday, so we’re fading Toronto with the Twins + 150. In addition to the anti-swagger scenario, we also like the pitching matchup with Dylan Bundy (3-2, 4.76 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) facing Jose Berrios (3-2, 5.62 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). I would like the Twins at even money or + 105, but + 150 is a real fair price. I was happy to tread lightly with dogs on Friday as they were 3-12 and was proud to have narrowed down my plays to the win on the Padres (and the Rockies + 160 was a bit of a Bad Beat as it was scoreless through 9 innings). Anyway, it looks like another chalky day overall as the only other dogs I was considering (Angels, White Sox and A’s) are all on losing streaks, so I don’t feel I can trust them (and the prices are too short).

Panthers-Stars Under 47.5 (Sunday): I’m passing on Saturday’s Breakers-Stallions game as it appears lined pretty solidly for both side and total, but just a reminder that I’m already on record with this Under on Sunday – and wouldn’t recommend taking Under 46.5, so I’ve advised followers to grab the Under 47 in case it disappears.

NBA: We also have to wait for Sunday for more NBA Finals action. As I wrote yesterday, we were thrilled to win our bet on the Celtics in Game 1 and feeling justified about telling readers to go ahead and take the series price on the Celtics and not wait (as they’re now -180). We recommended followers to pass on Game 2 for now as the Warriors are in the zig-zag role as 4-point favorites; however, if the public bets this higher (and there’s some books adding juice to the -4 and BetMGM going to 4.5), I probably won’t be able to pass up betting the Celtics again. Check back for my final decision on Sunday morning.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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