Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, updated ATS stats, Saturday Best Bets 5/28

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 28, 2022 05:29 AM
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Friday was a pretty laid-back day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as I watched “Top Gun” during the day to catch up on the movie canon because I was going to see the new “Top Gun: Maverick” movie at the theaters at Palace Station on Friday night.

The reason for this was my wife’s work didn’t have a Christmas office party back in December, so they tried to make up for it by sending everyone to the movies. It was a fun time, and like I said, I made a day of it by watching the original on my DVR. The funny thing is all I could think about during the original “Top Gun” was how much they must have lowered the net in the famous volleyball scene to make it so the famously short Tom Cruise could spike the ball!!!!

Anyway, a fun time was had by all, and it was made better as I secretly followed my Best Bet of the Heat + 8.5 against the Celtics. The Heat’s win was extra sweet as I saw that 60 percent of the handle was on the Celtics (according to VSiN’s Betting Splits page, with stats from our parent company, DraftKings). It sure seemed like more people were on the chalk as I didn’t hear anyone else on our network or any other network making a case for the Heat.

Granted, I was in my own little “Top Gun” world all day Friday, but I’m sure you know what I mean.

I did lose my lone MLB play on the Royals + 160 at the Twins as they were right in the game before the Twins pulled away for a 10-7 win, but again it’s always a great feeling when we win our Best Bet of the day.

Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting results and try to come up with the best of the best bets for Saturday.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Heat beat the Celtics 111-103 Friday night to avoid elimination and force a decisive Game 7. The ViewFromVegas is the Heat closed as 8.5-point road underdogs as the game went Over the low betting total of 202 points. The Heat won in the zig-zag role after losing Game 5.

More NBA: Faves dipped to 7-4 SU and ATS this round and 53-27 SU and 46-34 ATS (57.5 percent) overall. Home teams now 6-5 SU and ATS, 49-31 SU overall and slightly profitable at 42-38 ATS (52.5 percent). The zig-zag is now 6-3 ATS this round, 36-30 ATS (54.5 percent) overall. Overs 7-4 this round while Unders dipped to 47-33 (58.8 percent) overall.

NHL: Avalanche (-165) beat Blues 3-2 Friday night to clinch their 2nd-round series 4-2. The game stayed Under the betting total of 5.5 goals. Faves lead 13-7 this round and lead 46-25 overall. Home teams dipped to 11-9 in round, 43-28 overall. The zig-zag improved to 5-7 this round and leads 31-28 overall. Unders lead 13-7 in this round while Overs lead 38-31-2 (55.1 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves went 7-5 Thursday with upsets by the Reds (+ 176 in 5-1 win vs. Giants), Orioles (+ 160 in 12-8 win at Red Sox), Cardinals (+ 125 in 4-2 win vs. Brewers) and Yankees (+ 120 in 2-0 win at Rays). Home teams also went 7-5. Unders went 6-5-1 with the push in the Padres’ 4-3 win vs. the Pirates with the betting total of 7 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 404-258 SU (61 percent) on the season with 14 games closing pick-’em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves are still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 346-330 (51.2 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders improved to 342-298-36 (53.4 percent), way down from 60 percent a month ago.

Saturday’s Takes

Rangers -110 vs. Hurricanes: The home team has won the first five games of this series (with the Rangers winning 3-1 and 4-1 in Games 3 and 4), so why shouldn’t the Rangers win at home Saturday night in Game 6 and force a decisive Game 7?

Generals-Bandits Under 42.5: We were on USFL Unders early and then flipped to Overs when the books overadjusted (or underadjusted in this case), but it appears they adjusted too much again on this game as I have it at 39.5. This is also another play against the public as DraftKings reports on our VSiN Betting Splits page that 82 percent of bets and 91 percent of the handle is on the Over.

MLB dogs: Several games were off the betting boards early Saturday, so I don’t see many live dogs. However, I am planning to play the Rockies -105 at the Nationals in Game 2 of their doubleheader as long as they’re facing Joan Adon (1-8, 6.97 ERA, 1.72 WHIP).

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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