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Tuley's Takes Today: Friday recap, Saturday best bet plus updated NFL picks (1/8)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 8, 2022 04:52 AM
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We returned to the Tuley’s Takes home office on Friday after taking our oldest child, Jordyn, back to Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff after Christmas break, but we’ll keep today’s edition short and sweet as we’re feeling under the weather (note: no fever, so hoping it’s not COVID).

Adding insult to our sickness was we returned to town in time to see our best bet on Butler + 5.5 vs. Xavier lose as the Musketeers jumped out to an early lead and kept the Bulldogs at arm’s length throughout. So, we’ll return to the ice for Saturday’s best bet along with updating our NFL Week 18 best bets for Sunday.

But, first, let’s recap all of the Friday betting action.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Favorites went 8-1 SU and ATS on Friday night, including the Bulls (-5.5) covering in 130-122 win vs. the Wizards for their 9th win in a row. The lone upset was by the Bucks (+ 4.5 in 121-109 win at the Nets). Overs went 6-3.

CBB: No. 22 Xavier beat Butler 87-72, covering as a 6.5-point road favorite as the only Top 25 team in action on Friday night. The game went Over the betting total of 130.5.

NHL: Hurricanes beat Flames 6-3 as -190 home favorites as the game went Over the betting total of 6 goals). The Blues beat the Capitals 5-1 in a game that closed pick-'em and it stayed Under 6.5, so faves officially 1-0 on the night with 1 pick-’em with Over/Unders splitting 1-1.

Saturday’s Takes (including NFL Week 18)

Parlay Devils-Blue Jackets 1P Over 1.5 -155 with Maple Leafs-Avalanche 1P Over -150: Returning to our preferred 1st Period Over bets in the NHL, these are all high-scoring teams and hoping for the high-scoring to continue (we passed on the two games on Friday that had relatively low-scoring teams and got game went Over 1.5 goals in the first period). Devils 20-15 with 1P Overs while Blue Jackets 22-10 for a combined 42-25 (62.9 percent) while Maple Leafs 17-15 with Avalanche 21-9 for a combined 38-24 (61.3 percent) to both exceed the percentages needed with the increased vig. Two-team parlay, depending on what odds you actually get, should pay round + 174. I also like the Blackhawks-Golden Knights 1P Over 1.5 -125 as an added play.

NFL

(Note: We post our best bets in VSiN’s digital online magazine, Point Spread Weekly, that comes out on Wednesday. But oftentimes the lines move between then and when the games are played, so we like to post updates in these daily “Tuley’s Takes Today” columns to help bettors get the best value. If you’re looking for the reasons why I like each pick, check out PSW or the NFL Best Bets file at VSiN.com as here we’re most interested in whether to bet the games early or wait until closer to kickoff to get the best number.)

Lions + 4 vs. Packers: Actually, this wasn’t among my best bets in PSW as the line was bouncing all over with speculation about whether or not Aaron Rodgers and other Green Bay starters would play since they’re locked up the NFC No. 1 seed. I didn’t like the Lions at -2 as they were earlier in the week or even at + 2, but I advised in yesterday’s column to jump in at + 4. Hopefully many of you did as it’s down to 3.5 at most books.

Jaguars + 16 vs. Colts: We gave this out at + 16 but those have mostly disappeared. It’s probably best to grab the best number you can ASAP, though I’d still feel comfortable at + 14.5.

Texans + 10 vs. Titans: This number is looking pretty solid, but there were some indications that it could drop so I advised grabbing the 10; however, a few 10.5s have popped up so get that if you can.

Falcons + 4 vs. Saints: Yesterday, I advised to grab + 4 if you could as it was clearly moving to 3.5, which it has. Still playable at that number, though you always want the best number possible.

Steelers + 5 at Ravens: This dropped to 3.5 on Friday, so hopefully you grabbed at least + 4.5 as this line has been bouncing all over the place. The last dip was due to Lamar Jackson officially being declared out and replaced by Tyler Huntley.

49ers + 4.5 at Rams: This also looks pretty solid, but Circa Sports is down to 4, so I’d grab the 4.5 ASAP.

Raiders + 3 vs. Chargers: This is also pretty solid, but a few books were starting to add vig to the Chargers -3, so we were hoping to get the hook at + 3.5 but that’s looking a little less likely as we hit the weekend.

 

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