Tuley's Takes Today: Friday betting recaps, Saturday Best Bets in NFL preseason, MLB 8/13

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Friday was another day of chores/errands and signing up proxy clients for the football contests in town (in case you missed my VSiN story comparing all the high-end Vegas-based contests this year, plus DraftKings’ offerings in other states, check out my story and chart HERE). https://www.vsin.com/comparing-rules-and-entry-fees-for-football-betting-contests/

I know I’ve mentioned how I’m trying to get my “honey do” list before the football regular season begins, but it seems like the list gets bigger every day.

Anyway, the fun part of the day came with 14 MLB games and 5 NFL preseason games, but unfortunately that was equally frustrating as I had a losing night by going 1-2-1 with my MLB 1st inning wagers. I lost by Best Bet on the Red Sox 1st 5 + 105 vs. the Yankees as they trailed 2-1 through 5 innings (and added insult to injury by rallying to beat the Yankees 3-2 in 10 innings). I did win my 2nd play on the Marlins 1st 5 + 105 as they led the Braves 2-1. I also lost with the Brewers as they trailed the Cardinals 2-0, but it looked like I was going to win with the Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 105 and show a slight overall profit as they led 3-0 after the top of the 4th inning, but they let the Rockies rally to tie the game 3-3 after the 5th for a losing day.

I actually felt worse with my non-plays in the NFL preseason games as dogs went 4-1 ATS but I didn’t like any of them on Friday’s card. In addition, you’ll remember I liked the Over in the Hall of Fame Game last week because I felt the total was adjusted too low. This week, I was hoping to go with more Unders like I usually do in preseason games but felt the totals were too low – so, why didn’t I bet more Overs? They went 5-0 on Friday night with me not holding a ticket. That felt like a missed opportunity.

But let’s move on. Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s (full-game) betting results in MLB and the NFL preseason and look for more plays for Saturday as I’ve already posted some of the dogs I like in Point Spread Weekly and in these daily columns.

Friday’s recaps

NFL: Underdogs went 4-1 ATS Friday with upsets by the Falcons (+ 2.5 at Lions), Browns (+ 2.5 at Jaguars), Jets (+ 1 at Eagles) and Cardinals (+ 1.5 at Bengals). 49ers (-3) were the only chalk and home team to win/cover vs. Packers. Road teams also 4-1 SU and ATS. Overs went a perfect 5-0.

More NFL: After road dogs and Overs dominated Friday, dogs now lead 4-3 SU in Preseason Week 1 and 5-2 ATS. Road teams lead 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS while Overs are 7-0. Including the neutral-site Hall of Fame Game, faves/dogs are tied 4-4 SU overall but dogs lead 5-3 ATS while Overs are 8-0.

MLB: Faves went 10-4 Friday with upsets by the Phillies (+ 198 in 2-1 win at Mets); Guardians (+ 140 in 8-0 win at Blue Jays), Orioles (+ 130 in 10-3 win at Rays) and Red Sox (+ 100 in 3-2 win vs. Yankees). Road teams went 8-6. Unders went 7-5-2 with pushes in the Braves’ 4-3 win at the Marlins with a betting total of 7 runs and the Mariners’ 6-2 win at the Rangers with a total of 8.

More MLB: Faves lead 1,001-661 SU (60.2 percent) on the season with 26 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead 891-796 (52.8 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 824-776-85 (51.5 percent).

Saturday’s Takes

Seahawks + 3 at Steelers (now + 3.5): This is another example of waiting for the best line with an underdog. This line was 3 all week, then the Steelers announced Mitch Trubisky would be starting this game for the Steelers and it went to Seahawks + 3.5. Thank you for the hook! Geno Smith is the incumbent to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle, but we’re hearing that former Bronco Drew Lock is having a good camp, so we could have a motivated backup. If they both see considerable time (and I expect Lock to get most of the snaps in the second half when this game is likely to be decided), I give a considerable edge to the Seahawks. Trubisky is No. 1 on the Steelers’ depth chart, so we don’t see as much of a QB battle there with Mason Rudolph and rookie Kenny Pickett. For future reference, Seattle’s Pete Carroll (26-17, 60.5 percent) and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin (34-24 ATS, 58.6 percent) are both play-on coaches.

Panthers + 3.5 at Commanders: Now, this is a case where I gave it out at 3.5 and wish we had locked it in early as the line dropped to Commanders -1 at a lot of books. However, as of early Friday, it went back to 3 so we hope most readers were able to grab that. As we update this early Saturday morning, Panthers are + at William Hill books but mostly 2.5. There are still rumors that the Panthers are still shopping for a starting QB, but for now I still like the preseason rotation of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Matt Corral and P.J. Walker battling for their spots on the roster so that’s still my recommended play.

Phillies 1st 5 + 150 at Mets: It’s tough to go against DeGrom, but the Mets are in an anti-swagger spot after the Phillies snapped their 6-game winning streak on Friday, so we’re counting on them to carry that momentum into Saturday’s game with Aaron Nola For my 2nd play, I like the Cardinals/Wainwright 1st 5 + 110 vs. the Brewers/Burnes. 

Good luck today (and every day!).

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