Tuley's Takes Today: Friday betting recap, NBA 1st-round ATS stats, Saturday picks 4/30

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Friday was another long day in the Tuley’s Takes, not as crazy as Thursday (with the NFL Draft moving on to the 2nd and 3rd rounds as opposed to the more intense 1st round) but better for our bankroll.

Just like on Wednesday when we had a nice score with the lowly Coyotes on a swagger play at the Stars, we had the lowly Canadiens as another swagger play as they were coming off a 9-game losing streak, so we were backing them in their next game. They were playing this year’s top NHL team, the Panthers, but as I pointed out to readers they had nothing to play for after clinching the President’s Cup and home-ice advantage throughout the upcoming Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

We recommended the Canadiens + 1.5 -105 but also a smaller bet on the money line at + 250 (this closed at + 145 the market realized what was going on, so I hope our readers grabbed the best line possible). Anyway, it was one of our easiest wins lately as the Canadiens jumped out to a 4-0 lead and coasted to a 10-2 victory.

Unfortunately, our Best Bet of the day (damn, I knew I should have gone with the Canadiens LOL) on the Timberwolves + 1 vs. the Grizzlies didn’t fare as well in their 114-106 loss. That dropped our record to 48-27-1 ATS (64 percent) with our top play of the day the past 76 days (nearly 11 weeks).

Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting action and then try to get back on the winning track on another action-packed weekend.

Friday’s recaps

NBA: Grizzlies rallied to beat Timberwolves 114-106 Friday night to win their series 4-2 and wrap up the 1st round of the playoffs. They also ended up covering as 1.5-point road favorites as the game stayed Under the betting total of 229.5 points.

More NBA: Faves finished 30-13 SU and 24-19 ATS (55.8 percent) in 1st round. Home teams dipped to 24-19 SU while road teams improved to 25-18 ATS (58.1 percent). Zig-zag dropped to 16-19 ATS with Timberwolves in that role; Unders improved to 27-16 (62.8 percent) -- 33-16 (67.3 percent including 6-0 in the play-in tournament.

MLB: Faves 9-5 with the Mariners-Marlins game closing PK. The upsets were by the Nationals (+ 195 in 14-4 rout at Giants), Diamondbacks (+ 170 in 6-2 win at Cardinals), Indians (+ 138 in 9-8 win at A's), Angels (+ 135 in 5-1 win at White Sox) and Astros (+ 110 in 11-7 win at Blue Jays). Road teams went 9-6. Overs went 10-5.

More MLB: Faves went 9-5 with 1 pick-'em to improve to 189-109 SU (63.4 percent) on the young season with 4 PKs. Home teams went 6-9 Friday but still lead 158-144 after road teams actually led 65-63 earlier in the season. Unders went 5-10 to slip further below 60 percent at 166-121-15 (57.8 percent).

NHL: Faves 9-5 with Senator-Flyers closing PK. Upsets by Canadiens (+ 145 in 10-2 rout vs. Panthers), Golden Knights (+ 145 in 7-4 win at Blues), Red Wings (+ 140 in 5-3 win at Devils), Jets (+ 120 in 3-1 win vs. Flames) and Coyotes (+ 200 in 5-4 win vs. Predators). Overs went 8-7.

Saturday’s Takes

Nationals + 1.5 -105 at Giants: We don’t have NBA or NHL on Saturday, so we’ll turn to MLB as we actually have 3 swagger/anti-swagger plays today, I’m choosing this game as my Best Bet of the day as we just have to lay -105 to get the Nationals + 1.5 runs as they just snapped a 9-game losing streak. The other plays are the Indians as a swagger play (just snapped a 7-game losing streak), but would have to lay -160 with them at the A’s (or lay -1.5 + 120), or taking the Rays -170 against the Twins (anti-swagger play against them as they just had a 7-game winning streak snapped)or lay -1.5 + 125. I’ll be playing all of these on the run lines, but weighing the Nationals a little higher as my Best Bet.

Bandits-Gamblers Under 39: As I wrote in Point Spread Weekly, I’m going with the 4 USFL Unders again this weekend as we don’t think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough. We think the Bandits’ defensive rating is skewed a little by giving up 34 points to the Breakers last week, so we feel that’s giving us a few points for value with the Under. We’re also taking the Stallions-Breakers Under 44.5 on Saturday, along with the Maulers-Panthers Under 38.5 and Generals-Stars Under 40.5 on Sunday as we’ve been advising all week.

Good luck today (and every day!).



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