Tuley's Takes Today 9/6: Tuesday's Best Bets

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Johnny_Cueto

Monday was a busy day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office as we got started on our NFL “takes” that will appear in Wednesday’s edition of this column (just like they formerly did in Point Spread Weekly), plus we signed up some more proxy clients at Circa and the Westgate and did another fantasy draft as the holiday was a true Labor Day – but I guess also a labor of love.

We (and I write “we” because I’m hoping our loyal readers were with us on these wagers) won our Best Bet of the day on the Giants 1st 5 + 150 (as given out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on our regular Sunday night appearance as well as in Monday’s version of this column) at the Dodgers. Logan Webb allowed 2 runs in the bottom of the 1st inning, but the Giants rallied to lead 6-3 through 5 innings and went on to also win the game at + 195 on the money line.

We also hit our 2nd play on the Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 190 and the full-game.

Both these plays were the result of fading the two teams that were coming off of playing Sunday Night Baseball. In this one, I advised readers that there was a pitching change and we were getting the D-backs’ top pitching prospect Ryne Nelson making his first MLB start, but we also said we were going to still bet it and were rewarded with Nelson pitching 7 shutout innings as Arizona led 1-0 after 5 on the way to a 5-0 win at + 199 on the full-game ML.

As happy as I was with my MLB winnings, I was just as proud of passing on Georgia Tech vs. Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff (oh, I forgot to mention I ate a great chicken sandwich at the newly opened CFA near Flamingo and Paradise on the way to my fantasy draft). Everyone knows me as an underdog bettor, but I like to stress that while I play almost exclusively all underdogs, I don’t bet ALL dogs. We try to avoid the dead dogs like Georgia Tech, so we’re glad we had the discipline to pass, which is a very important part of our dog-or-pass approach.

Anyway, let’s recap the rest of Monday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more plays on Tuesday. While we’re waiting to share all our “takes” on the individual NFL Week 1 games, we do have the teasers that I gave out on Sunday night’s show and in this column yesterday.

Monday’s recaps

CFB: No. 4 Clemson routed Georgia Tech 41-10 Monday night in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Tigers also covered as 24.5-point favorites after opening as low as -18. The game stayed just Under the closing betting total of 51.5 points.

MLB: Faves went 9-3 Monday with the upsets by the Nationals (+ 225 in 6-0 shutout at Cardinals), Diamondbacks (+ 199 in 5-0 shutout at Padres) and Giants (+ 195 in 7-4 win at Dodgers). Road teams went 8-4, including those 3 huge upsets. Unders led 7-5. 

More MLB: Faves lead 1,202-783 SU (60.6 percent) on the season with 30 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,063-950 (52.8 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 994-914-104 (52.1 percent).

Tuesday’s Takes

White Sox 1st 5 + 120 at Mariners: After hitting with both MLB plays on Monday, this is actually an anti-swagger play against the Mariners, who had their 7-game winning streak snapped by the White Sox on Monday (teams in this spot often have a letdown after the pressure is off from maintaining a winning streak; they also often give some starters a rest, so we’ll also see if that happens when the lineups are announced. Regardless, I’m counting on Johnny Cueto (7-6, 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) to keep the Sox in the game early. He’s been even better of late, going 2-1 with a 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts.

Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 135 at Padres: We’re playing with house money after winning with the D-backs 1st 5 + 190 and game ML of + 199, so let’s go with them again with Merrill Kelly (12-5, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) as his numbers are comparable to the Padres’ Joe Musgrove and we’re getting a fair price again.

NFL Week 1 teasers:

Thursday

Rams + 8.5 (moved from the current line of + 2.5 up to more than a TD with a 6-point teaser) to these other four teams in 2-team, 6-point teasers (try to not lay more than -120).

Sunday

Ravens -1/Colts -2 (passing on 49ers -1 at Bears) in Sunday’s early games

Vikings + 8/Cowboys + 7.5

Good luck today (and every day!).

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