Tuley's Takes Today 9/28: Breakdown of entire NFL Week 4 card, plus Wednesday MLB

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Tua

Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.

For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite.

Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites.

This approach has worked very well so far this NFL season as underdogs are 27-18-2 ATS (60 percent) vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas through the first three weeks (note: we’ve graded one game as closing pick-’em: Commanders at Lions in Week 2, so that’s why our stats have just 47 games).

During the first two weeks of the season, we were a little disappointed as we weren’t killing it as much as we would expect with so many dogs covering, but went 3-1 ATS with our Best Bets in this column last week (plus also hit our top 2-team, 6-point teaser play with the Dolphins and Lions), so we’re feeling better about ourselves and our decision-making process with these dogs.

Personally, I have one bit of bad dog news as I had to take one of my dogs, Beemo, to the vet on Tuesday as he got into a bag of chocolate chip cookies that I made the other day. Hopefully, he and the rest of my dogs this weekend are healthy and strong.

Without further ado, let's get to the NFL Week 4 card. At the end, we'll have our regular daily recaps of Tuesday's betting action, plus my MLB plays for Wednesday.

Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of Tuesday night unless otherwise noted. Check out VSIN.com's live NFL odds page here for current odds.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

We get another intriguing Thursday night matchup with the Dolphins (one of only two undefeated teams left along with the Eagles) visiting the Bengals, who finally got in the win column with their 27-12 win at the Jets on Sunday. The advance line on this game was Bengals -2 and was bet to -2.5 and then -3 on Sunday night and has since gone up to -4. The early movement was due to reports that Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa might have suffered a concussion in Sunday’s win over the Bills and might not be available with the quick turnaround and having to travel for the Thursday nighter. But Tagovailoa says he’s going to play, and if that’s the case, we have to like the inflated price on the Dolphins again (last week, we loved the Dolphins at + 6 against the Bills, who many people were putting in the Super Bowl already). The Dolphins’ defense allowed the Bills to score just 19 points and if it could contain Josh Allen, it should have an easier time shutting down Joe Burrow, who has been sacked 15 times already in three games.

Best Bet: Dolphins + 4 (pool play: Dolphins in all of my rare SU and ATS contests that use the Thursday night game).

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (in London)

This is the first “international” game this season from London, so beware that it starts at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT on Sunday. The Vikings have been an up-and-down team already in the young season with a Week 1 win over the NFC North rival Packers, then getting dominated by the Eagles in Week 2 before rallying to beat the Lions 28-24 in Week 3 (and failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites). Now, they’re 2.5-point faves at most Las Vegas books and -3 at DraftKings against a Saints team that has lost two straight games to the Buccaneers and Panthers after barely beating the Falcons 27-26 in the opener. The Vikings are the better team right now, but not by a wide margin and I’m not going to lay the points on the road chalk. Instead, this is the right time to talk about our preferred teasers where we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. My top “advantage teaser” is to take a 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Saints + 8.5 tied with the Falcons + 8 vs. the Browns as well as other combinations with the Cardinals + 7.5 at the Panthers, Broncos + 8.5 at the Raiders and Rams + 8.5 at the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Note: another potential teaser play is the Buccaneers teased up to + 8 vs. the Chiefs in the Sunday nighter, but we’re not sure if that’s going to be played in Tampa or moved because of Hurricane Ian.

Best Bet: Saints + 8.5 or better with Falcons + 8 vs. the Browns, plus other teasers (pool play: Saints around 55/45 in ATS contests – higher if getting + 3 or 3.5 – but Vikings still 55/45 in SU pools).

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

I’ve already gone on record with the Titans getting more than a field goal in this coin-flip game at the Colts. Both teams earned their first wins of the season in Week 3 after slow starts (the Titans lost to the Giants and Bills before breaking through against the Raiders while the Colts were 0-1-1 with a tie vs. the Texans and a blowout loss to the Jaguars before rallying to beat the Chiefs 20-17 on Sunday). These teams were expected to be battling for the AFC South title, but instead they’re chasing the first-place Jaguars with the loser of this game in a bigger hole. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill played better in the win over the Raiders, plus Derrick Henry is still a beast.

Best Bet: Titans + 3.5 (pool play: Titans 75/25 in ATS contests – lower at 3 or especially 2.5 – plus slightly better than 50/50 in SU pools).

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3)

We have an unlikely matchup of 2-1 teams here with the Bears visiting the Giants. The Bears are setting offensive football back by the decade, but it’s working as they continue to wait for Justin Fields to develop. The Bears are No. 6 in rushing offense and take on a Giants’ rushing defense that ranked No. 28, and we don’t think it matters if starting RB David Montgomery (knee, ankle injuries) is able to go as backup Khalil Herbert (157 yards, 2 TDs vs. the Texans) might be the bigger threat anyway.

Best Bet: Bears + 3, but waiting for 3.5 (pool play: Bears 67/33 in ATS contests – even higher if offered 3.5 – and we’ll call for outright upset with Bears 55/45 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens

Even though this is in the cluttered 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT window, this is arguably the marquee game of Week 4. Both teams are just 2-1 with the Ravens inexplicably losing to the Dolphins in Week 2 and the Bills falling to the Dolphins in Week 3 despite outgaining them 497 yards to 212. I successfully faded the Bills last week with the Dolphins, but I don’t think I’m going to be willing to do that again even if this gets back to + 3.5 or even 4. In addition to an explosive offense, the Bills are No. 1 in total defense, allowing just 214 yards per game while the Ravens are last at 457.3.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 60/40 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Houston Texans

The much-hyped Chargers sure know how to throw in a clunker. They were blown out 38-10 by the Jaguars in Week 3 even though Justin Herbert was able to start. And don’t forget, they also lost to these Texans, 41-29, in Week 16 last season. The advance line over the summer for this game was Chargers -8.5, but after being at -7 last week with the extent of Herbert’s rib injury being unknown, it has continued to drop below a TD to the current line of 4.5. While I wouldn’t take it if the line drops any lower, I’ll grab the Texans + 4.5 as they’ve been surprisingly competitive so far this season in their 20-20 tie vs. the Colts and their narrow losses to the Broncos and Bears.

Best Bet: Texans + 4.5 (pool play: Texans 67/33 in ATS contests, though Chargers still 60/40 in SU pools).

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4.5)

After ranking around the league’s best bets last season at 11-6 ATS despite a 3-13-1 SU record, the Lions are off to a 3-0 ATS start with a back-door cover vs. the Eagles in the opener, a 36-27 win over the Commanders in Week 2 and holding on for a cover in their 28-24 loss to the Vikings as 6.5-point underdogs. Most of their success has been as dogs, but now they’re being asked to lay more than a FG against a Seahawks team that started the post-Russell Wilson era with an upset of the Wilson-led Broncos before losing their last 2 games to the 49ers and Falcons. I can’t recommend either side in their current roles, though the Lions were short faves the week before they beat the Commanders in a game that closed pick-’em.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Lions 60/40 in SU pools).

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

This is another game where it’s hard to get excited for either side, even though it’s tempting to take the Jets plus the hook. The problem is the Jets might be getting QB Zach Wilson back after starting the season 1-2 with Joe Flacco. The Jets would be winless if not for the miracle win over the Browns in Week 2. We don’t know how sharp Wilson will be in his return while Pittsburgh fans are still waiting to see if Mitch Trubisky can get the Steelers back on the winning track (coach Mike Tomlin is trying to avoid his first losing season) or if they turn to rookie Kenny Pickett.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests but Steelers 65/35 in SU pools).

Trevor_and_Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

Many people are calling the Eagles (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) the best team in the NFC, but don’t sleep on the Jaguars. They’re 2-1 SU and ATS with a Week 1 loss to the Commanders but back-to-back upsets of the Colts and Chargers. Now, a lot of people are pointing out that Herbert was less than 100 percent, but the Jaguars’ defense is legit after shutting out the Colts the week prior and then holding the Chargers to just 10 points. We expect the Eagles to score more than that, but it shouldn’t be too hard for an improved Trevor Lawrence to keep the Jaguars close for another upset or to just lose by a field goal.

Best Bet: Jaguars but waiting for + 7 (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests – higher at 7 or especially 7.5 – though Eagles still around 67/33 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

The Cowboys’ defense, ranking No. 8 by allowing just 312.3 yards per game, has really picked up the slack for the loss of QB Dak Prescott. Backup QB Cooper Rush has played well, too, but it’s really the defense that has shined in holding the Bengals’ potent offense to 17 points and the Giants to 16 (and it also did its job in the Week 1, 19-3 loss to the Buccaneers). Carson Wentz has played well in flashes for the Commanders, but I don’t see him able to keep them in the game. 

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 60/40 in ATS contests – lower if asked to lay -3.5 or more – and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Browns are off to a 2-1 start under Jacoby Brissett as he fills in until Deshaun Watson’s suspension is over, which was expected with a very talented team. In fact, they should be 3-0 if they hadn't blown the endgame vs. the Jets. The Falcons are 1-2, but have been more competitive than many people expected with a narrow loss to the Saints in the opener, a back-door cover at the Rams as 10-point dogs and a minor upset of the Seahawks. We’re not sure they can pull another upset of the Browns, but QB Marcus Mariota and the downhill running of RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson should be able to do enough to stay within a touchdown.

Best Bet: Pass, except for Falcons in teasers (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 67/33 in SU pools).

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2)

Here’s another game where I can’t quite pull the trigger on the short underdog (and the Cardinals don’t instill much confidence after a 1-2 start with the only win being the miracle comeback to beat a lowly Raiders team in Week 2), but I’m again perfectly willing to tease the short dog up over a touchdown. The Panthers are in their fourth straight game that is close to pick-’em and we fully expect another close, one-score game like all three of their games have been so far this season.

Best Bet: Pass, except for Cardinals in teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Panthers still 55/45 in SU pools).

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)

Here’s yet another game where I’m going to repeat myself: I don’t like the Broncos enough to call for the outright upset or to cover this short number, but I’ll tease them up over a touchdown. The Raiders are 0-3 SU and ATS, but the Broncos are struggling despite being 2-1 SU as they were upset by the Seahawks in the opener and have narrow wins vs. the Texans and 49ers. The AFC West as a whole hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype, but this could be a shootout like we were expecting from the division.

Best Bet: Pass, except for Broncos in teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests, though Raiders still 55/45 in SU pools).

Belichick_and_Hoyer

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-10)

This was my second early Week 4 play (along with the Titans + 3.5) when the openers came out Sunday afternoon. The advance line on this game was Packers -6.5, but it reopened -7.5 after the Packers beat the Buccaneers. In addition, New England QB Mac Jones suffered a high ankle sprain late in the Patriots 37-26 loss to the Ravens, so this line was adjusted to -9.5 rather quickly. With the news that Jones will miss several weeks and veteran Brian Hoyer would be pressed into service, this game crossed 10 to Packers -10.5 before getting bet back to 10. I think that’s an overadjustment, so I took the Pats at + 9.5 and rebet at + 10.5. Bill Belichick will certainly put Hoyer into the best position to succeed; besides, the Packers haven’t looked like world-beaters as they nearly failed to cover as 10-point favorites against the Bears and Aaron Rodgers didn’t look all that great in the 14-12 win vs. the Buccaneers (or the 23-7 loss vs. the Vikings for that matter).

Best Bet: Patriots + 10 or better (pool play: Patriots 67/33 in ATS contests, though Packers still 75/25 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Sunday nighter rivals Bills-Ravens for the game of the week, but it’s hard to make a call with all the uncertainty of approaching Hurricane Ian. There’s been talk of moving this game to Minneapolis, though it now appears the NFL is trying to see if they can keep it in Tampa as Ian is expected to hit the area on Wednesday, though we’ll see how much damage it causes to Raymond James Stadium or the area in general. Our initial thought is that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have too much for the Bucs, but Tom Brady and Co. certainly know how to give themselves the best chance to win even when getting outplayed. This could be another potential teaser play on the short dog, but we’ll see if the game moves along with the spread (we’d expect the Chiefs to be favored by more points if moved to a neutral site, taking it out of the “teaser zone”). Check these “Tuley’s Takes Today” columns the rest of the week to see if I decide on what to do with this game.

Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Chiefs around 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2)

Week 4 ends with another short underdog in a prime teaser role. With Jimmy Garoppolo now back in the starter role, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, though some might doubt that after the 49ers’ sloppy, lackluster 11-10 loss at the Broncos on Sunday night. But the Rams are still the defending champs and fully capable of staying within a touchdown. We’re hoping we have some teasers live to the Rams, but could potentially start teasers with the Rams to Week 5 games (early candidate look like the Colts teased up to + 8.5 at the Broncos, Packers teased down to -1.5 vs. the Giants, Browns teased up to + 8 vs. the Chargers and Bengals teased up to + 8.5 at the Ravens).

Best Bet: Pass, except for Rams in teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests, but 49ers 55/45 in SU pools).

 

And here’s an abbreviated version of our regular daily column:

On Tuesday, we lost our Best Bet on the Blue Jays 1st 5 -105 vs. the Yankees as they were trailing 3-1 after the first 5 innings, but we did cash with our 2nd play on the Marlins 1st 5 + 170 as they led the Mets 6-3 after 5 innings and pushed on the A’s 1st 5 + 170 as they were tied 3-3 with the Angels for a small overall profit.

Let’s recap the rest of the (full-game) betting results from Tuesday, update our season-long betting stats in MLB (plus rerun the NFL stats from Week 3) and look for more MLB 1st 5 plays for Wednesday.

Tuesday’s Recaps

MLB: Faves went 9-5 Tuesday with Yankees-Blue Jays closing pick-'em. The upsets were by the Marlins (+ 184 at Mets), Rangers (+ 178 at Mariners), Cubs (+ 150 vs. Phillies), Rays (+ 135 at Guardians) and Twins (+ 105 vs. White Sox). Home teams went 9-6. Unders 10-5.

More MLB: Faves lead 1,370-894 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 36 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,211-1,098 (52.4 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise but slipping lately). Unders lead 1,129-1,063-118 (51.5 percent).

NFL (ICYMI): In Week 3, dogs went 9-7 SU and 10-5-1 ATS. Home/road teams split 8-8 SU while road teams led 9-6-1 ATS. Over/Unders split 8-8. ON THE SEASON, faves lead 26-20-1 SU with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2), but dogs lead 27-18-2 ATS (60 percent). Home teams lead 25-22-1 SU but are tied at 23-23-2 ATS. Unders lead 29-18-1 (61.7 percent) while primetime Unders dipped to 7-3.

Wednesday’s Takes

Red Sox 1st 5 -110 vs. the Orioles: This is a swagger play on the Red Sox, who snapped a 6-game losing streak on Tuesday, as we’ll count on Rich Hill (7-7, 4.73 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) to keep this close as the Red Sox play spoiler. Let’s also take the Rays 1st 5 + 105 at the Guardians, who are in an anti-swagger role after having their 7-game winning streak snapped Tuesday. We also get Tyler Glasnow in his return to the Rays from Tommy John surgery last August.

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College Lines Revealed: ATS record is a great indicator as to if the market overvalues or undervalues a team, especially late in the season. Consider betting on teams with a strong ATS record if you believe the betting market has not properly adjusted. View more tips

Live Bet Sunday: Unless you really feel you need to get out of a bet, you don't have to attempt to hedge when the game isn't going as you predicted. Hedging is just raises the floor, but lowers the ceiling on you original investment. Unless you're confident that you're you're going to win your hedge, sometimes it's best to ride out the original bet. View more tips

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Matt Youmans: Colts -2.5 vs. Steelers. View more picks.

Dave Tuley: Broncos +8 vs. RavensView more picks.

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