Tuley's Takes Today 9/27: Tuesday Best Bets, updated betting stats, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Monday was a rather enjoyable day in the Tuley’s Takes home office after having such a successful NFL Sunday.

I took a nap to catch up on some sleep from burning the proverbial midnight oil all weekend long and  got to work on handicapping next weekend’s games for our big Wednesday column when I give my “takes” on the full NFL card. I also had to vacuum and shock the pool and catch up on some other chores around the house that fall through the cracks on football weekends.

And we also ended this past “weekend” (I still consider Monday to be the real end to each NFL week and each betting weekend because of Monday Night Football) on a winning note as we won our Best Bet on the Cowboys + 1 at the Giants with their 23-16 victory. In addition, out of my MLB 1st 5 bets in which I was fading the Yankees and Red Sox coming off of having to play on Sunday Night Baseball, I won with the Orioles 1st 5 + 105 at the Red Sox with the O’s leading 8-5 after the first 5 innings and pushed on the Blue Jays 1st 5 -120 as they were tied 2-2 with the Yankees after 5.

Let’s recap the rest of the (full-game) betting results from Monday, update our season-long betting stats in the NFL and MLB, take a peak in Contest Corner including the leaders of the Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest, then look for Best Bets for Tuesday. In addition, I gave out a couple of early NFL Week 4 plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience” show on VSiN on Sunday night and in this column on Monday, so I have updates on those.

Monday’s Recaps

NFL: Cowboys beat Giants 23-16 on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 3. The Cowboys closed as 1.5-point road underdogs and the game went Over the closing total of 38.5 points for our official record-keeping vs. consensus closing lines, though earlier Under bettors at 40 and 39.5 also cashed.

More NFL: In Week 3, dogs went 9-7 SU and 10-5-1 ATS. Home/road teams split 8-8 SU while road teams led 9-6-1 ATS. Over/Unders split 8-8. ON SEASON, faves lead 26-20-1 SU with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2), but dogs lead 27-18-2 ATS (60 percent). Home teams lead 25-22-1 SU but are tied at 23-23-2 ATS. Unders lead 29-18-1 (61.7 percent) while primetime Unders dipped to 7-3.

MLB: Faves went 3-1 on the short Monday card with the lone upset by the Orioles (+ 105 in 14-8 win at Red Sox). Winning a chalk were the Braves (-250 at Nationals), Pirates (-158 vs. Reds) and Blue Jays (-115 vs. Yankees in 10 innings, snapping Yankees’ 7-game winning streak). Home/road teams split 2-2. Over/Unders also split 2-2.

More MLB: Faves lead 1,361-889 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 36 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,202-1,092 (52.4 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise but slipping lately). Unders lead 1,119-1,058-118 (51.4 percent).

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 1,550 live entries after Giants (6) lost on Monday Night Football. The other NFL Week 3 eliminations were on Chiefs (260), Chargers (128), Raiders (16), 49ers (13), Bills (10), Saints (7), Seahawks (5), Texans (3), Buccaneers (2) and Jets (1), plus 11 entries that weren’t submitted. Of the 2,012 entries that entered the week, 462 (23 percent) were eliminated.

Circa Sports Million has just 2 entries, DONT_STOP_BELIEVING-3 and The Leong Shots-1, that are a perfect 15-0 after three weeks and leading the race for the First Quarter Prizes ($150,000 for first place, $60,000 for second, $40,000 for third, $15,000 for fourth and $10,000 for fifth) that get decided after Week 4. ICYMI: Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in NFL Week 3 (9-6 on season) with wins on Jaguars + at Chargers, Ravens -2.5 at Patriots and Falcons PK at Seahawks. Losses were on the 49ers -1.5 at Broncos and Chiefs -5.5 at Colts.

Westgate SuperContest has a three-way tie (unofficially) for 1st place at 14-1 after three weeks between THE BLEEPING RECORD, THE SHADY 5 and WFT POD at 14-1. If that stands when the official standings are posted on Tuesday, they would win $21,66,66 apiece as co-leaders in the first 3-week in-season contest (first prize is $50,000 with $10,000 for second and $5,000 for third, but the tie splits those shares equally). ICYMI: SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 4-1 in NFL Week 3 (10-5 on season) with wins on Jaguars + 7, Bengals -5, Ravens -2.5 and Dolphins + 6. The lone loss was on the 49ers -1.5 on Sunday Night Football.

Tuesday’s Takes

Blue Jays 1st 5 + -105 vs. Yankees: Let’s try this again for the 2nd straight day after pushing on 1st 5 bet Monday, though Blue Jays did hit full-game money line. This is now an anti-swagger play as the Yankees just had their 7-game winning streak snapped and mostly just going through the motions waiting for the playoffs while also everyone sitting around watching Aaron Judge try for the AL home run record. We also have no problem trusting Toronto’s Jose Berrios vs. Jameson Taillon. The only other dogs I’m considering are the Marlins/Lopez 1st 5 + 170 at the Mets/Carrasco and the A’s/Kaprielan 1st 5 + 170 at the Angels/Sandoval.  

Early NFL Week 4 plays

Titans + 3.5 at Colts: As I wrote above, I gave these out on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” show at 9:15 p.m. PT Sunday (or 15 minutes into the archived version) and in my Monday morning column. I warned to grab the + 3.5 ASAP as we projected that line would continue to come down and we want the “hook.” Well, half the books in Vegas dropped the line to 3, but there are still some 3.5s available as of early Tuesday morning. I really believe this should be closer to pick-’em in a game that could come down to a late FG.

Patriots + 9.5 at Packers: We gave this out because this line had steamed from Packers -7.5 to -9.5 on the news that the Mac Zones probably would be out at least a couple of weeks and replaced by veteran Brian Hoyer. and we feel the line was overinflated, especially since the Packer haven’t exactly looked like world-beaters either -- and now with that news confirmed on Monday, I like it even more than the line has crossed the semi-key number of 10 to + 10.5.




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