Tuley's Takes Today 9/26: Monday Best Bets, NFL Week 4 leans, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Cooper_Rush

Sunday’ NFL Week 3 wasn’t as wild as Weeks 1 and 2, but we enjoyed it even more in the Tuley’s Take home office.

And it wasn’t just because it was the 40th anniversary of yours truly, Dave Tuley, kicking the winning extra point in OT of my high school’s conference opener on Saturday, Sept. 25, 1982 (for details, you’ll have to read my Twitter account @ViewFromVegas or my Facebook page).

While we were disappointed to not fare better with our underdog bets the first two weeks of the season, we went 2-1 ATS with our Best Bets posted in these columns with the Dolphins + 5 and Lions + 6 at the Vikings but a loss on the Commanders + 6.5 vs. the Eagles. We also hit our top teaser play with the Panthers + 8.5/Titans + 8 (both won outright), plus earlier in the week we gave out the Packers + 7.5/Falcons + 7.5 before the lines dropped but hopefully some still bet it on Sunday when getting at least + 7 on each. I also went 4-1 ATS with my main contest entries, plus 5-0 ATS in one group entry.

We did lose our 2 MLB 1st 5 inning plays on the Pirates and Cardinals, but we’ll take that trade-off on any given Sunday.

Let’s recap Sunday’s action and then give our weekly updates of the biggest handicapping contests here in Vegas at Circa Sports and the Westgate, then offer our Best Bets for Monday as well as early leans for NFL Week 4.

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Broncos rallied to beat 49ers 11-10 on Sunday Night Football as 1.5-point home underdogs. The game stayed way Under the betting total of 45 points. On Sunday, dogs went 8-6 SU and 9-4-1 ATS, home and road teams split 7-7 SU with road teams leading 8-5-1 ATS while Unders led 8-6. In addition, while home dogs went 5-4 SU and ATS, road dogs went 4-0-1 ATS with the push as we graded the Texans as closing as 3-point road dogs at the Bears in their 23-20 loss.

More NFL: Including TNF, dogs lead 8-7 SU in Week 3, but dogs 9-5-1 ATS. Home teams 8-7 SU, but road teams 8-6-1 ATS. Unders 8-7. ON THE SEASON, faves 26-19-1 SU with 1 pick-'em, but dogs 26-18-2 ATS (59.1 percent). Home teams 25-21-1 SU and 23-22-2 ATS. Unders 29-17-1 (63 percent) while primetime Unders improved to 7-2.

Sunday NFL: Faves went 5-4 SU in Sunday’s early games, but dogs led 5-3-1 ATS. The Bears (-3) pushed in a 23-20 win vs. the Texans. The upsets were by the Dolphins (+ 4.5 in 21-19 win vs. Bills), Panthers (+ 2 in 22-14 win vs. Saints), Colts (+ 5 in 20-17 win vs. Chiefs) and Titans (+ 2 in 24-22 win vs. Raiders). Home teams 6-3 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. Unders 5-4.

More Sunday NFL: Dogs went 3-1 ATS in the afternoon with 3 straight-up upsets by the Jaguars (closed + 6.5 in 38-10 rout at Chargers), Packers (+ 1.5 in 14-12 win at Buccaneers) and Falcons (+ 1 in 27-23 win at Seahawks). The Rams (-3.5) covered in a 20-12 win at Cardinals. Road team 4-0 SU and ATS while Over/Unders split 2-2.

MLB: Faves went 8-7 Sunday with Yankees (-176) beating Red Sox 2-0 in a rain-shortened game on Sunday Night Baseball. The biggest upsets were by the Tigers (+ 205 at White Sox), Royals (+ 157 vs. Mariners) and Nationals (+ 155 at Marlins). Road teams went 11-4. Overs 9-5 with no-action on the Red Sox-Yankees total.

More MLB: Faves lead 1,358-888 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 36 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,200-1,090 (52.4 percent, usually closer to 54 percent, had been on the rise but slipping lately). Unders lead 1,117-1,056-118 (51.4 percent).

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 1,556 live entries (after entering the week at 2,012) after the 49ers (13) lost on Sunday Night Football. Other Sunday eliminations were on the Chiefs (260), Chargers (128), Raiders (16), Bills (10), Saints (7), Seahawks (5), Texans (3), Buccaneers (2) and Jets (1), plus the 11 entries that didn't submit their plays in time.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in NFL Week 3 (9-6 on season) with wins on Jaguars + 7 at Chargers, Ravens -2.5 at Patriots and Falcons PK at Seahawks. Losses were on the 49ers -1.5 at Broncos and Chiefs -5.5 at Colts.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 4-1 in NFL Week 3 (10-5 on season) with wins on Jaguars + 7, Bengals -5, Ravens -2.5 and Dolphins + 6. The lone loss was on the 49ers -1.5 on Sunday Night Football.

Monday’s Takes

Cowboys + 1 at Giants: This wasn't a Best Bet when I originally wrote my 3,000-word "takes" column last Wednesday, but I liked it the more I looked at it as I don't think there's that much of a dropoff from Dak Prescott (as the advance line on this game was Cowboys -3.5) and Cooper Rush, who won last week vs. the Bengals.

MLB 1st 5 dogs:  Also on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night, I recommended to fade the two Sunday Night Baseball teams that are playing on Monday with the Blue Jays/Glausman 1st 5 TBD vs. the Yankees/Severino and the Orioles/Lyles 1st 5 + 105 at Red Sox/Seabold.

Early NFL Week 4

Titans + 3.5 at Colts: As I also said on Peterson's show (just like last week when we gave Lions + 7.5), I believe this line is going to drop so grab it ASAP as we have it closer to pick'-em between these two AFC South teams that were off to slow starts and both won Sunday. Getting the hook at 3.5 is great value.

Patriots + 9.5 at Packers: This line has been overadjusted with the uncertain status of New England QB Matt Jones, but I'll take veteran Brian Hoyer at this price (and bet again if it goes to double digits) as the Packers haven't been overly impressive either and shouldn't be favored by this much.

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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