Tuley's Takes Today 9/25: Sunday Best Bets, including updated 'takes' on full NFL Week 3 card

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

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Saturday was another exciting sport betting day, highlighted by wall-to-wall football action, and some horse racing thrown in.

There were upsets and near-upsets that we’ll recap below, plus we also did our weekly Circa contest update story for VSiN.com, so check that out. We’ll recap the weekend’s results in our Sunday and Monday columns here from the Tuley’s Takes home office.

On the racetrack, our two picks in our “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” column came up short and I finished 4th in a National Handicappers Championship qualifier in which only the Top 2 earned a seat at the championship tournament in February. However, I did earn NHC Tour points and hopefully I can at least climb into the Top 75 non-qualifiers who get in the back door to the NHC Final like I did two years ago.

As for my sports bets, it was an overall disappointing. I won my Best Bet of the day on Notre Dame + 1.5 at North Carolina as the Irish pulled the minor upset, but lost my other three posted CFB play (Utah State, Boston College and Hawaii – and none of them were close).

I pushed my Rangers 1st 5 + 100 play vs. the Guardians as the score was tied 1-1 after the first 5 innings, and lost my second play on the Angels 1st 5 + 110 vs. the Twins as they trailed 7-3 after 5 innings.

Like I’ve said before: bring on the NFL!

Let’s get to our daily recaps of Saturday’s betting action and then look for our Best Bets on Sunday as we’ll list our top NFL play at current prices as well as an MLB 1st 5 play. In addition, like we’ve started doing with this season, we’ll rerun our entire Wednesday column and update our plays based on how the lines have been moving as we know a lot of readers wait until gameday to make their wagers.

Saturday’s Recaps

CFB: Kansas State upset No. 6 Oklahoma 41-34 on Saturday night as 13.5-point road underdog and + 425 on the money line. No. 7 USC beat Oregon St. 17-14 to avoid being 2nd Top 10 team to lose to an unranked team, but did NOT cover as 6-point road favorite. No. 1 Georgia (-45 in 39-22 win vs. Kent State), No. 4 Michigan (-17 in 34-27 win vs. Maryland), No. 5 Clemson (-7.5 in 51-45, 2OT win at No. 21 Wake Forest) and No. 8 Kentucky (-27 in 31-23 win vs. my alma mater, Northern Illinois) also didn't cover.

More CFB: In games between ranked teams, No. 23 Texas A&M (-1.5) covered vs. closing line in 23-21 win vs. No. 10 Arkansas (though some early Arkansas backers cashed at + 2.5 or pushed on plus/minus 2). No. 11 Tennessee (-11) also held on to beat No. 20 Florida 38-33, but didn't cover.

MLB: Faves went 11-3 Saturday with Cubs-Pirates closing pick-'em (PIrates won 6-0 to snap 8-game losing streak). The only upsets were by the A's (+ 325 in 10-4 win vs. Mets), Tigers (+ 150 in 7-2 win at White Sox) and Blue Jays (-104 in 3-1 win at Ray). Road teams led 9-6. Overs 10-5.

More MLB: Faves lead 1,350-881 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 36 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,196-1,079 (52.6 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise but slipping lately). Unders lead 1,112-1,047-118 (51.5 percent).

Sunday’s Takes

Dolphins + 5 vs. Bills: See below for more, but we look forward to the Dolphins’ offense getting to attack a Buffalo defense that will be missing four starters.

Panthers + 8.5/Titans + 8: My favorite 2-team, 6-point teaser in Sunday’s early games.

Lions + 6 at Vikings: I have + 7.5 in pocket from last Sunday night, but think Lions are still playable at 6.

Commanders + 6.5 vs. Eagles: Hoping we see 7 on Sunday.

Cowboys + 1 at Giants (Monday night)

Pirates 1st 5 -110 vs. Cubs: This is a “swagger” play on the Pirates who have the momentum from snapping their 8-game losing streak on Saturday. The Pirates start Luis Ortiz (0-0, 0.84 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) against Adam Sampson (2-5, 3.35 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). Regular readers might wonder why I’m technically betting a favorite here, but we regularly lay -110 in the point-spread sports so I have no problem doing it here. My second MLB play on Sunday will be the Cardinals 1st 5 + 125 with Adam Wainwright (11-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) against Michael Grove (0-0, 4.66 ERA, 1.55 WHIP).

And here's the rerun of Wednesday's column with my "takes" on the full NFL Week 3 card. Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of Tuesday night unless otherwise noted. Check out VSIN.com's live NFL odds page here for current odds.

SUNDAY

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots

The Ravens’ also blew a big lead in their Week 2 loss to the Dolphins as they were rolling along before the collapse. This line also looks like it could be on the rise as the NFL Betting Splits page on VSiN.com (with info from DraftKings) shows 90 percent of the bets and money on the Ravens early this week. But even if this gets to 3.5, I don’t think I’ll be able to pull the trigger on the Patriots, who lost 20-7 to that same Miami team and haven’t shown the same offensive firepower (7 points vs. Dolphins, 17 vs. the Steelers) to keep up with a Baltimore offense that is averaging 31 points per game behind QB Lamar Jackson. Update: sharp money came in on Wednesday and this line has actually dipped to Ravens -2.5 at some books.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – higher if contest uses -2.5, lower if it uses 3.5 – and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins

This was one of the plays I gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (my weekly appearance is 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version) and in my earlier columns this week as I thought we wouldn’t get any better than Dolphins + 4.5. I was wrong about that as the Bills routed the Titans 41-7 on Monday night and this line has been adjusted up to 5.5, but that’s OK with us as 5 is less of a key number than 4, so we’ll let our original bet ride. It’s scary to fade the Bills again with how dominant they’ve been in routs of the Rams and Titans, but Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins showed they can get in a shootout with anyone.

Best Bet: Dolphins + 5.5, though if you haven’t bet yet, I’d wait to see if we can get + 6 (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).

Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets

The Bengals are certainly suffering from the Super Bowl loser hangover as they’re off to an 0-2 start. They should get in the win column here, that is as long as Joe Burrow doesn’t keep having to face pressure from a porous offensive line. The Jets were certainly impressive in rallying to beat the Browns behind Joe Flacco (and the Browns failing to run out the clock), but I can’t trust either of those things to happen two weeks in a row so I’m also passing on this home dog. Update: this line is up to 6, but I'm still not biting on the Jets.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).

New Orleans Saints (-2.5 -120) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have been more competitive than expected (though both of their games against the Browns and Giants have been lined around pick-’em so it shouldn’t be too surprising), but I believe they’re taking a step up in class here against the Saints. I can’t take them at such a short price, but they’re a prime teaser play as we can move the line up over a touchdown. This is a good place to list the preferred teaser plays for this week (though they’ve been underperforming for us so far) as I’ll use the Panthers in a 2-team, 6-point teaser at + 8.5 in combination with the Titans + 8.5 vs. the Raiders in Sunday’s early games. Other potential teaser plays include the Packers + 8 at the Buccaneers, Falcons + 8 at Seahawks, Broncos + 7.5 vs. the 49ers on Sunday night and the Cowboys + 8.5 at the Giants on Monday night. Update: most of these dogs have seen their lines drop, but I'd still tease if you can go up to + 7.5.

Best Bet: Panthers-Titans in 6-point teaser, plus other teaser plays (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Saints 55/45 in SU pools).

DAndre_Swift

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)

This is the other early Week 3 pick I gave out Sunday night and in my columns as I took the Lions + 7.5. There were some + 7s in the market and I advised listeners/readers to be it ASAP and sure enough it was gone by Monday morning. After the Vikings lost 24-7 to the Eagles on Monday night, the line has since dropped to + 6. Part of me believes I should pass at the current number, but I think it’s going to still be one of my Circa/Westgate contest plays, so I guess that means I still think the Lions are worth a bet at + 6. The Lions were 11-6 ATS last year as they were competitive in most of their games despite a 3-13-1 overall record, and they’re off to a 2-0 ATS start this year with their back-door cover vs. the Eagles in Week 1 and their 36-27 win vs. the Commanders this past Sunday. Jared Goff has never looked better in spreading the ball around to all his weapons and the defense is good enough to contain the Vikings’ potent offense.

Best Bet: Lions + 6 or better (pool play: Lions 60/40 in ATS contests, but the Vikings still 67/33 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

There’s probably no team that’s off to a more disappointing start than the Colts, and that includes teams off to the dreaded 0-2 start. The Colts were expected to win the AFC South and be a Super Bowl contender but have opened with a 20-20 tie at the lowly Texans and were blown out 24-0 by the lowly Jaguars. I would normally love a team in this spot as a home underdog but I just can’t pull the trigger with how bad Matt Ryan and the Indy offense has looked along with how good Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense has looked. I’m passing on using the Chiefs teased down to virtually pick-’em, but I’m sure others will take that option.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).

Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at Tennessee Titans

Both these teams are off to disappointing 0-2 starts. This isn’t quite a must-win game for either team, but it’s close. The Raiders were in complete control at halftime against the Cardinals and were the victim of one of Sunday’s biggest collapses as they couldn’t contain Kyler Murray. The Titans should also have a win as they dominated the Giants in the first half of their opener before a similar collapse, and then were routed by the Bills. I still have the Titans rated as the better overall team, but will go with the aforementioned 2-team, 6-point teaser. 

Best Bet: TItans + 8.5/Panthers + 8.5 (pool play: Titans 55/45 in SU and ATS contests).

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders

We have yet another home underdog (nine in all as of early Wednesday), and while I’ve only been willing to tease a couple of them, I’m going to dive in with the Commanders, though I’m waiting for the line to hopefully reach + 7. This line was Eagles -3 on the advance line last week but has steamed to 6.5 after their impressive 24-7 win vs. the Vikings on Monday night. VSiN’s NFL Betting Split page shows 90 percent of the best and 85 percent of the money on the Eagles, so I don’t see how the public doesn’t continue to bet this to a full TD. Carson Wentz is playing like the Colts should have kept him at QB as he rallied the Commanders past the Jaguars in the opener and nearly brought them back vs. the Lions last week. We’re expecting the back-door cover to be open late in this game as well.

Best Bet: Commanders + 7, but will settle if it stays at 6.5 (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in ATS contests – higher if offered 7 or especially 7.5 – though Eagles still 75/25 in SU pools).

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-3 EV)

Both teams have been very competitive with the Texans tying the Colts in Week 1 and getting the back-door cover in a 16-9 loss at the Broncos in Week 2 while the Bears upset the 49ers in Week 1 and nearly covered at the Packers in Week 2 (Justin Fields sure looked like he broke the plane of the goal-line on his late QB sneak that would have probably led to a back-door cover). This would be closer to pick-’em on a neutral field so it makes sense for the Bears to be favored by 3 at home (DraftKings has this juiced toward the Texans, so it could dip to 2.5; update: this line has indeed dropped to -2.5 at most books). Some might see that as a buy sign on the Bears -2.5, but I’d be more inclined to tease the Texans up to + 8.5. 

Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bears 60/40 in SU pools).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)

We’ll add any potential play on this game later in the week as we’re still waiting for official word on Chargers QB Justin Herbert. He was beat up pretty badly and suffered fractured rib cartilage in the loss at the Chiefs last Thursday night, but he still gutted it out to get Charger backers the back-door cover. Coach Brandon Staley might opt to rest Herbert and start Chase Daniel instead. That would definitely have an impact on this line. While the temptation is also to tease the Chargers down to virtually pick-’em, I would be interested in the much-improved Jaguars if Herbert starts and this line ticks up higher than a TD. Check out columns here through the rest of the week to see what I decide to do. Update: this line crashed Friday from 7 down to 3 as Herbert still listed as questionable and Daniel taking all the first-team snaps this week; unless Herbert cleared to start early Saturday, the Jaguars + 7 will be the No. 1 choice in the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest, but actual betting value on the Jaguars is gone.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests – higher if offered + 7.5 or better – but Chargers around 75/25 in SU pools).

Aaron_Rodgers

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Here we come with our top teaser options in the Sunday afternoon session of games, starting with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers as short road dogs at the Buccaneers, who are battling a bunch of injuries (update: add the 1-game suspension for Bucs WR Mike Evans for escalating the brawl vs. the Saints). Granted, Tom Brady usually gets the job done with whomever he has to work with, but Rodgers is also working with his patchwork group of receivers and should keep this within a touchdown.

Best Bet: Packers + 8.5/Falcons + 8 teaser (pool play: Packers 55/45 in ATS contests but still Buccaneers 55/45 in SU pools). Update: this teaser is gone for those who didn't grab it Wednesday as the Packers and Falcons are both down to + 1 at most books and even pick-'em at some others.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-2)

This is the second half of the above teaser (as originally posted) as the Falcons are another team that has been surprisingly competitive in the early going as they barely lost to the Saints in Week 1 and then got the back-door cover in a 31-27 loss to the Rams in Week 2. Marcus Mariota has stepped back into a starting role and is spreading the ball around for the Falcons while the Seahawks took a step back in their 27-7 no-show vs. the 49ers after upsetting the Broncos in Week 1.

Best Bet: Falcons + 8/Packers + 8.5 teaser (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests, though Seahawks 55/45 in SU pools). Again, the advantage teaser is gone.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are an enigma as they let us down in Week 1 as they were routed by the Chiefs, and then they trailed the Raiders 20-0 at halftime this past Sunday before Kyler Murray single-handedly (and with both of his feet) rallied them to a 29-23 OT shocker. The Rams bounced back from their opening Thursday loss to the Bills as they looked better in beating the Falcons 31-27, though they did fail to cover. I do expect the Rams to have a better game plan to contain Murray, so I’m passing on the Cards for now but might add them later in the week (we’re waiting to see if this gets bet back up to 4)

Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests though Rams still 60/40 in SU pools).

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos

The Sunday nighter gives us the 9th home dog of the week. The advance line on this game was Broncos -3, but now it’s flipped to the 49ers -1.5. I believe this validates my earlier comments (and I wasn’t the only one) that the 49ers were a better team if Jimmy Garoppolo stayed the starter instead of Trey Lance, who is now lost for the season with a fractured right ankle. But while the 49ers are now in better hands, the play is to tease the Broncos up over a TD even though Russell Wilson’s Denver debut hasn’t gone as well as planned.

Best Bet: Pass, except Broncos in teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in both SU and ATS contests).

MONDAY

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5)

We close out Week 3 with another lukewarm opinion about a short dog that we’re going to tease up over a touchdown. The Giants are a surprising 2-0 with narrow wins over the Titans and Panthers, but I’m still not sure they should be favored here. The Cowboys, with Cooper Rush, really stepped up (especially on defense) to upset the Bengals 20-17 as 7-point home dogs and there’s no reason they can’t do the same against the Giants. Update: after writing that last sentence originally in Wednesday's column, I've been liking this play more as we've moved toward the weekend and now considering the Cowboys one of my favorite dogs in Week 3.

Best Bet: Cowboys + 1 as we added it Friday (pool play: Cowboys 67/33 in SU and ATS contests).

 

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