Tuley's Takes Today 9/13: Tuesday Best Bets, updated betting stats, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Monday was mostly spent handicapping next week’s college and pro football cards in the Tuley’s Takes home office, though I also had to duck out for a few hours to take my son to Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice, which was held Monday even though Las Vegas kids didn’t have school on Monday (teacher institute day or something).

I would like to say that the first Monday Night Football game of the season was worth the wait but we lost our Best Bet of the day on a 2-team, 6-point teaser on Broncos -1/Over 38 as both sides came up short in the Seahawks’ 17-16 upset. For my full betting recap of the game, see my VSiN.com newser HERE as we wrote/posted that story Monday night in addition to this column. For the condensed version, see our regular daily recaps below.

I also lost my lone MLB 1st 5 play of the day on the Rangers 1st 5 + 110 at the Marlins as the game was tied 0-0 heading into the bottom of the 5th inning when the Marlins scored 2 runs.

Let’s recap the rest of the Monday action, including finalizing the NFL Week 1 betting stats along with our Contest Corner recap of the big Vegas contests (the Circa Survivor carnage continued with the Broncos’ loss). I’ll then conclude with our top MLB 1st 5 plays for Tuesday and update our early-week leans for NFL Week 2 (we hope readers were paying attention early Monday and grabbed the Vikings + 3 at the Eagles).

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Seahawks held off Broncos 17-16 in Russell Wilson's return to wrap up Week 1. The Seahawks did it after closing as 6-point home underdogs and + 224 on the money line. The stayed Under the betting total of 43.5 points with only 3 points scored in 2nd half.

More NFL: Faves went 10-5-1 SU in Week 1, but split with dogs at 8-8 ATS. Road teams went 9-6-1 SU, but home teams led 9-7 ATS. The subset of home dogs went 2-6-1 SU but 5-4 ATS (note: Vikings were originally 10th home dog vs. the Packers as they were around + 1.5 throughout the summer, but they closed as 2-point home faves, so they’re not graded as a home dog for these purposes). Unders dominated at 11-5, including 3-0 in prime-time games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights.

MLB: Underdogs went 5-4 Monday with upsets by Cubs (+ 250 in 5-2 win at Mets), Giants (+ 165 in 3-2 win vs. Braves), Pirates (+ 119 in 6-3 win at Reds), Rangers (+ 110 in 3-2, Game 1 at Marlins) and then Marlins (+ 108 in 10-6, Game 2 win vs. Rangers). Road teams led 5-4. Under 5-2-2 with pushes in PIT-CIN (9) and HOU-DET (7).

More MLB: Faves lead 1,249-816 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 32 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,110-995 (52.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but had been on the rise). Unders lead 1,026-967-113 (51.5 percent).

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor had another 569 entries eliminated with the Broncos on Monday night, so the record 6,133 field (prize pool of $6.133 million) is down to just 2,685 after Week 1 and the Broncos joined the Colts (875), Titans (708), 49ers (703) and Bengals (460) as the highly picked teams to go down in flames as 56.2 percent of the field is (burnt) toast.

Circa Sports Million (4,691 entrants at $1,000 apiece) Top 5 consensus plays finished 3-2 in Week 1 with the loss by Broncos -6.5 at the Seahawks as No. 5 pick. The wins were by No. 1 choice Vikings + 1.5 vs. Packers, Ravens -7 at Jets and Steelers + 6.5 at Bengals. The other loss was Eagles -4 at Lions.

Repeat from Sunday: SuperContest (1,598 entrants at $1,000 apiece) Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in Week 1 with wins on Vikings + 1.5, Ravens -7 and Steelers + 6.5. Losses were by the Eagles-4 and Panthers -1.5; SuperContestGold (80 entrants in the $5,000 winner-take-all version of the SC) went 4-2 with Browns and Patriots tying for No. 5 spot.

Tuesday’s Takes

Giants 1st 5 + 130 vs. Braves: Kyle Wright (17-5, 1.15 WHIP) is starting for the Braves, but I’m counting on the Giants’ Jakob Junis (4-5 but a similar 1.18 WHIP) to keep the Giants right in this game early. I’m also considering the Red Sox/Pivetta vs. the Yankees. Most places have TBD for the Yankees’ probable starting pitcher while I’ve seen Gerrit Cole listed on the Don Best Sports screen. It would be tougher to fade Cole, though we’d get a better price so I’ll probably play it anyway.

Early NFL Week 2 leans

VIkings + 3 at Eagles: I hope a lot of readers jumped on this after I gave it out on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night or in the Monday edition of this column as it’s been bet down to + 2 and even + 1.5 at some books.

Seahawks + 8.5 at 49ers: I liked this on Sunday night as a fade of Trey Lance and the 49ers, and feel even better about it after the Seahawks upset the Broncos on Monday night.

Saints + 3 vs. Buccaneers: This was off-the-board when I mentioned it on TGPE and in yesterday’s column because the Bucs had played on Sunday night. Most books posted it Tuesday morning between Bucs -2 and -4 and it’s settled on the key number of 3. I was hoping for slightly higher, but obviously the books know that the Saints’ defense has been Tom Brady’s kryptonite. I’ll wait to see if the public bets it up to 3.5, but otherwise will probably still take the Saints as 3-point home dogs.


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