Tuley's Takes Today: 8 straight wins on Cardinals, but backing off...why? (9-29)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

September 29, 2021 05:50 AM

All good things must come to an end.

That’s how we’re feeling in the Tuley’s Takes home office after we won our eighth straight MLB bet Tuesday (all at plus-money as we bet them on the run line when they were favored and hit those, too) on the Cardinals as they won their 17th straight game and clinch the National League’s second wild-card spot.

I know that those who have been following along are expecting us to keep riding this streak until it ends (especially if they didn’t jump in soon enough and want the gravy train to continue), but I’m here to inform you that I’m backing off because of the second part of that last paragraph. There’s an old betting theory that you bet against a team the game after it clinches a playoff spot/division/etc., especially when it can no longer improve its playoff seeding. The reasoning is that the team (especially the closer it is to the end of the season) is likely to give its starters the next day off. A secondary reason, and we usually don’t know if this is true or not, but there’s also a chance that the team might have been out celebrating its accomplishment. Either way, these teams are usually great fades.

And that’s just the situation the Cardinals are in. I’m sure they’d love to see how far they can take this winning streak, but their primary goal now is to get everyone to the playoffs healthy and set their pitching rotation, especially since they have the Dodgers or Giants in the do-or-die, one-game wild-card playoff.

So, I’ll be bummed if I miss out on further profits if they indeed continue their winning streak, but  it’s not a smart bet in my humble opinion. In addition, the Brewers-Cardinals line for Wednesday wasn't posted overnight at most books and we suspect it's because the books knew the Cardinals could clinch.

Let’s get to the general recap and then try to find a different baseball bet for Wednesday, plus look to lock in some early football bets for the weekend.

Tuesday’s betting recap

Cardinals (+ 102) beat Brewers 6-2 for their 17th straight win and clinched NL's second wild-card spot. Favorites went 11-5 on Tuesday with the biggest upset by Orioles (+ 230) in a 4-2 home win vs. the Red Sox, who only hold a one-game lead on the Blue Jays for the AL’s second wild-card spot with five days left in the regular season. Faves lead 1,358-923 (59.5 percent) on the season with 55 games closing pick-’em. Unders went 10-5-1 Tuesday with the push in Yankees-Blue Jays (9) and increased their slim lead on the season to 1,123-1,105-102 (50.4 percent).

Wednesday’s Takes

Yankees-Red Sox parlay: Let’s go the team with MLB’s team with the second-longest winning streak at seven games, the Yankees (-115), as they try to lock up the AL’s top wild-card spot, and parlay them with the Red Sox (-240), who are trying to hold off the Mariners and Blue Jays for the second wild-card berth. The Yankees send out Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) while the Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi (10-9, but Boston is 18-13 in his starts, 3.88 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) against Baltimore’s Zac Lowther (1-2, 7.88 ERA, 1.66 WHIP). By parlaying them we turn these two favorites into a dog of around + 165 or odds of 8-5. (Note: if you’re looking to make a similar play on Wednesday using the NL West race, you could parlay the Giants and Dodgers, though that only pays around 4-5).

Southern Miss (+ 3) at Rice: This is one of my best bets in Point Spread Weekly. I recommend you grab it ASAP as a lot of books have gone to 2.5. I see some 3’d out there at the Westgate SuperBook and Wynn Las Vegas here in town and other books in other states and offshore, but I suspect it won’t be available for long.

Falcons (+ 1.5) vs. Washington: This isn’t as pressing since it’s not on a key number, but we think this line could flip to the Falcons being favored. The Falcons are available at + 2 at DraftKings books and several others at + 1.5.

Lions (+ 3) at Bears: This line has been dropping and looks like it will continue to drop, so grab + 3 while you still can.

We’ll add a watch for more of our football plays as we move through the week.

Good luck today (and every day!).


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