Tuley's Takes Today 11/7: Monday Best Bet, Contest Corner, plus early NFL Week 10 picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 7, 2022 05:49 AM
Andy_Dalton

Sunday was another busy day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office, made worth all the hard work this past week as underdogs continued to bark in the NFL.

After getting a precious extra hour of sleep thanks to turning the clocks back, I was up early Sunday to get down to VSiN’s studio at Circa to appear with Uncle Brent Musburger on his “Countdown to Kickoff” show (it’s his new NFL pregame show here at VSiN from noon ET/9 a.m. PT until the 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT kickoffs).

I was honored to hear on my first VSiN appearance with Musburger in April 2017 that he was a long-time reader of mine from back in my days at the Daily Racing Form and honored again when he asked me to come on Sunday’s show to ask me about my “dog-or-pass philosophy.”

It was perfect time with home well dogs having been succeeding this year in the NFL, and Sunday was no different as he asked me for my Best Bet of the day and I gave him the Lions, who had been bet up to 4-point home underdogs were the Packers. He asked me if I thought the Lions could keep up with the Packers and I responded that with the way the Packers had been playing this season that the real question should be if the Packers could keep up with the Lions. As it turned out, neither team did much scoring, but we came away with an outright upset with the Lions winning 15-9.

I swept the rest my plays given out on the show with the Jets +10.5 vs. the Bills as a double-digit home dog despite both teams having winning records (Jets pulled the outright upset at 20-17), a 2-team, 6-point teaser on the Seahawks +8 with the Rams +9 in the only two games in the afternoon slate of games, plus our mutual choice on the Titans +12.5 at the Chiefs (line closed +14) in the Sunday nighter as the Chiefs won but didn’t cover 20-17 in OT.

The day couldn’t have worked out any better if I had written a script (especially since we never mentioned my only loser of the day on the Panthers +7.5 at the Bengals in their 42-21 loss!). We did, however, also have another winner in Sunday’s edition of these “Tuley’s Takes” column with a Jaguars +8.5/Seahawks +8 teaser.

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting action, take a peek into Contest Corner as the Bills’ knocked out a key entrant in Circa Survivor and then look for more live dogs on Monday Night Football and on the early NFL Week 10 lines that we gave out when we completed a day/night doubleheader with my regular weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT each Sunday night on VSiN).

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Chiefs rallied to beat Titans 20-17 on Sunday Night Football, but did NOT cover as 14-point home favorites (game stayed Under betting total of 45 points). On Sunday, faves went 7-4 SU, but dogs led 6-3-2 ATS. Home teams went 7-4 SU and 6-3-2 ATS. Unders dominated again at 8-3.

More NFL: Faves lead 80-52-1 SU on the season with 2 pick-’ems, but dogs improved to 74-53-6 ATS (58.3%). Home teams dipped to 73-58-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games, but road teams still lead 65-61-6 ATS (53%). Unders improved to 78-55-2 (58.6%) and primetime Unders 16-10-1.

Even more NFL: Faves went 5-3 SU in Sunday’s early games, but dogs led 4-3-1 ATS with upsets by the Jets (+10.5 vs. Bills), Lions (+4 vs. Packers) and Jaguars (+2.5 vs. Raiders). The Bears (+4) covered in a 35-32 loss vs. Dolphins while the push was in 20-17 win by Vikings (-3) at Commanders. Chargers (closed -2.5) covered in 20-17 win at Falcons. In the afternoon games, faves/dogs split 1-1 SU but dogs led 1-0-1 with an upset by Seahawks (+2 at Cardinals) and the push in Buccaneers (-3) 16-13 win vs. Rams. Home teams split 1-1 SU, but road teams led 1-0-1 ATS. Over/Unders split 1-1.

NBA: Favorites went 3-1 SU and split 2-2 ATS as Jazz (+4 road dogs) upset Clippers 110-102 while Wizards (+9.5 road dogs) covered in 103-97 loss at Grizzlies. Cavaliers (-5.5) covered in 114-100 win at Lakers and Raptor (-4) covered in 113-104 win vs. Bulls. Home/road teams split 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS. Unders swept 4-0.

More NBA: Overall in the regular season, faves improved to 93-48 SU with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still hold slim lead at 69-65-7 ATS (51.5%). Home teams lead 86-57 SU but lead just 69-67-7 ATS (50.7%). Overs’ lead cut to 72-68-3 (51.4%).

NHL: Dogs went 2-1 Sunday with upsets by Red Wings (+195 in 3-2 win at Rangers). Road teams swept 3-0 while Unders led 2-1. On the season, faves lead 106-80 with 6 PKs. Home teams still lead 100-90 with 2 neutral-site games. Overs lead 97-92-3.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 115 live entries after just 8 were eliminated in NFL Week 9 with 7 on the Bills – including 6 by CrushEmSports as they were the only entrant with all 6 original entries entering the weekend – and 1 on the Cardinals. There would have been more carnage with the Bills as a 10.5-point road favorite at the Jets, but a lot of players were probably saving the Bills for Circa Survivor’s special “Thanksgiving Week” when they face the Lions on the short 3-game schedule. A week-high 47 used the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football and were in major danger as they trailed the Titans 17-9 from early in the third quarter until under 3 minutes in regulation, but Patrick Mahomes rallied the Chiefs to a tying TD and 2-point conversion with 2:56 left and then to a 20-17 victory in OT.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-1-2 in NFL Week 9 (24-18-3, 57.1%, on season) with wins by the Seahawks +2 at Cardinals (No. 1 picks are 7-2, 77.8%) and Bears +5 vs. Dolphins, the loss was on the Raiders -1.5 at Jaguars and pushes on the Falcons +3 vs. Chargers and Vikings -3 at Commanders.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-1-1 in Week 9 (27-17-1, 61.7%, on the season) with wins on the Commanders +3.5 vs. Vikings, Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Rams and Seahawks +2 at Cardinals, with the loss on the Raiders -1.5 at Jaguars and the push on Falcons +3 vs. Chargers.

Monday’s NFL Takes

Saints +7.5/Under 52.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser): This line has come down from Ravens -3 to -1.5, but the Saints are still worthy of a teaser as we can take them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. While chalk teasers have underperformed all season, underdog teasers like this have been gold, including Sunday with our teasers using the Jaguars +8, Seahawks +8 and Rams +8.5 all cashing. The Saints (3-5 SU and ATS) have been inconsistent all season, especially on defense, but they’re coming off a 24-0 shutout of the Raiders. Whether it’s Andy Dalton (229 yards, 2 TDs last week vs. the Raiders and 361 yards, 4 TDs the week before vs. the Cardinals) spreading the ball around or Taysom Hill running some run-pass option, the Saints should be able to keep up with the Ravens, especially as the Baltimore defense has been having trouble holding leads. We’re also teasing the Under as we like the Under 46.5 anyway, but we can take it up to 52.5. The total has been bet down from 48 to 46.5, with 50% of the bets on both sides but 61% of the money (usually an indicator of the sharp side) on the Under at DraftKings as of Sunday night.

NFL Week 10

Thursday; Panthers +8.5/Lions +8.5 (2-teams, 6-point teaser)

Vikings +7.5 at Bills (everywhere)

Chargers +7 at 49ers (Circa)

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