Tuley's Takes Today 11/15: Tuesday Best Bet, Contest Corner, plus early NFL Week 11 picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 15, 2022 03:54 AM

Monday was a day of mostly looking ahead and handicapping the college football and NFL schedules this upcoming weekend.

I also did my fatherly duty of taking our son, Maddux, to Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice after school, and followed our wagers on the day.

We won our Best Bet on the Commanders +11 vs. the Eagles as they pulled the outright upset, 32-21. Our weekly “Monday Night Football recap” can be found on VSiN.com as we break down what happened in the game from a betting perspective, and then update our ATS stats for Week 10 and the season.

We did lose a bet on the Senators +105 vs. the Islanders as they lost 4-2. Although we passed on the other NHL “swagger play” on Monday, we hope some readers went ahead and bet the Flames -170 as they beat the Kings 6-5.

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action (including a peek into Contest Corner with Circa Survivor down to 86 live entries and updates on the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest leaderboards), and then give our Best Bet for Tuesday in the NHL as we don’t like either of the MACtion underdogs. In addition, we add updates to our early NFL Week 11 bets that we gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and in the Monday version of this column.

Monday’s Recaps

NFL: Commanders upset the Eagles 32-21 on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 10. The ViewFromVegas is they did it as 11-point underdogs and +400 on the money line (game went Over betting total of 43 points). Faves/dogs split 7-7 SU in Week 10, but dogs led 8-6 ATS. Home teams went 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS with 1 neutral-site game in Germany. Over/Unders split 7-7 while primetime Unders went 2-1 despite the Over on Monday night.

More NFL: Faves dipped to 88-59-1 SU on the season with 2 games closing pick-’em, while dogs improved to 82-60-6 ATS (57.7%). Home teams lead 81-64-1 SU with 4 neutral-site games (3 in England, 1 in Germany), but road teams improved to 71-69-6 ATS (50.7%). Unders dropped to 86-62-2 (58.1%) while primetime Unders dipped to 19-11-1 (63.3%).

NBA: Faves went 6-1 SU on Monday, but faves/dogs split 3-3-1 ATS. The lone upset was by the Hawks (+4 at Bucks). The Thunder (+12 at Celtics) and Suns (+2.5 at Heat) covered in SU losses. The push was in the 115-111 win by the Raptors (-4) at the Pistons. Road teams went 4-3 SU and 5-1-1 ATS. Overs led 5-2.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 131-71 SU with 3 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 104-90-8 ATS (53.6%). Home teams lead 124-81 SU and 103-94-8 ATS (52.3%). Overs increased their slim overall lead in totals wagering to 103-98-4 (51.2%).

CBB: Northwestern State (+21.5, +1500 money line, high of +1800 at Circa Sports) upset No. 15 TCU 64-64 on Monday night. The game stayed Under the betting total of 137 points.

NHL: Faves went 3-1 with lone upset by the Blues (+168 in 3-2 win at Avalanche). Road teams went 3-1. Unders led 2-1-1 with the push in Islanders-Senators (6). On the season, faves lead 139-103 with 6 PKs. Home teams lead 130-114 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 122-118-8.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 86 live entries in the $6.133 million pool after 10 more were eliminated on the Eagles on Monday Night Football. After starting the week with 115 live entries, Sunday eliminations were 10 on Raiders, 8 on Bears and 1 on Saints.

Circa Sports Million has co-leaders after NFL Week 10 as Enut34-1 won with Commanders +11 on MNF to go 4-1 on week and catch TAIL PARTY-2 at 36-13-1 (73.5%) for the top spot. The prize pool for the 4,691 entrants is $6 million with a guaranteed $1 million to the champ.

SuperContest has a four-way tie for the lead with GAMBLING RATS, HEINKEN 21, SA247LLC and #RIFFWEFINALLYDIDIT all at 35-14-1 (71.4%) through NFL Week 10. In SuperContest Gold ($5,000 entry fee, winner-take-all), JORD20 (33-15-2) and ESKIMOS2 (34-16) are tied for the lead with 34 points as 1 point per win and 0.5 per push.

Tuesday’s Takes

Sharks +1.5 -120 at Golden Knights: Here we have an anti-swagger play against the Golden Knights, who just had a 9-game winning streak snapped in their last game, so we’re fading them with the Sharks. We’re making the puck line our Best Bet of the day at +1.5 -120, plus also taking a little on the straight money line at +230.

Early picks for NFL Week 11

Panthers +12.5 at Ravens: Haven’t bet this yet as we expect it could go higher, but another DD dog. And while the Ravens usually lead by double digits, their defense has given up a lot of leads this year and the Panthers are playing better despite trading away RB Christian McCaffrey. Tuesday update: this line is mostly down to 12 with Baker Mayfield to start over the injured PJ Walker.

Lions +4 at Giants: As I mentioned on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I did bet this at +4 at Circa as there were a bunch of books at Giants -3.5 on Sunday night. We lost a contest play on the Texans +4.5 vs. the Giants, but trust the Lions a lot more and expect this to be our Best Bet of Week 11. Tuesday update: as expected, this line went to 3.5 everywhere and some books are down to 3 with added juice, so bet it ASAP if you’re with us.

Colts +9.5 vs. Eagles: We’re going to go against the Eagles yet again and believe the time to bet this is now. My one regret Sunday was not betting the Colts vs. the Raiders. As I wrote in my column last week: “If Matt Ryan were to be put back into the starting QB job, I would be willing to take the points with the Colts, but not with Sam Ehlinger,” but I never saw a single report that interim coach Jeff Saturday was going to start Ryan. The Colts looked more like the team that was expected this season and should be able to stay within a TD of the Eagles. When betting early lines, the main question is which way the line is more likely to move. Since the Eagles are 11-point favorites vs, the Commanders, they’re expected to win in a rout, so even if they do we don’t think this line will go up from 9.5. Meanwhile, if it’s closer than expected or the Eagles lose, it’s likely to drop. Tuesday update: with the Commanders upsetting the Eagles on MNF, we expect this line to go lower.


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The Greg Peterson Experience: Doing research during the week and timing the market for FCS football games accordingly can pay off big time. FCS games typically do not receive a betting line until the day of the game, so hitting openers on game lead to tremendous closing line value and large edges.  View more tips.

Brad Powers: Notre Dame at Louisville - UNDER (54). View more picks.