Tuley's Takes Today 11/14: Monday Best Bet, Contest Corner, plus early NFL Week 11 picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 14, 2022 04:59 AM
Taylor_Heinicke

Sunday was a very long, but very exciting day in the Tuley’s Take home office with wall-to-wall games starting here in Las Vegas at 6:30 a.m. PT until nearly 8:30 p.m. PT, at which time I prepared to go on VSiN’s The Greg Peterson Experience” to recap all of the NFL Week 10 action and give some early picks for NFL Week 11.

And we loved every minute of it.

It also helped that the Seahawks rallied from a 21-3 deficit, which we mostly slept through, only to wake up to see them lose 21-16 to the Buccaneers but complete our 2-team, 6-point teaser from Thursday (Panthers +8.5 in a 25-15 upset of the Falcons) and also kick off another teaser to the Lions +8.5 (they later rallied to beat the Bears 31-30).

We did lose some contest plays like the Jaguars +9.5 at the Chiefs, though we didn’t bet it as we never were able to get the +10 we wanted (as it turned out, the insurance of a push was very important as they lost 27-17). It was another example of how important it is to be selective and shop for the best numbers.

Another example was our play that we gave out last Sunday night on Peterson’s show and in this Monday column on the Vikings +7.5 at the Bills. We were lucky to get that number, especially when Josh Allen became doubtful and the line dropped to Bills -3.5. As it turned out, he ended up starting and playing great, but we ultimately had the right side as the Vikings rallied to win 33-30 in OT in what might be the craziest game we’ve ever seen. The end of regulation was crazy as it looked like the Bills were going to hold on for a 27-23 victory (which we woulda covered anyway) until Allen fumbled the snap while trying to run out the clock and the Vikings recovered for the go-ahead TD only to have Allen drive the Bills for a FG to force OT.

It reminded everyone (or at least those old enough to remember) of “The Miracle in the Meadowlands") a week short of 44 years ago in 1978 when the Giants were trying to run out the clock of a 17-12 victory only to have QB Joe Pisarcik and RB Larry Csonka botch a handoff and have Herman Edwards (yes, that Herman Edward) scoop-and-score for a 19-17 Eagles victory.

Again, while it was exciting to watch, it probably saved a heart attack from having the best number.

We weren’t feeling so confident with our Best Bet of the day on the Packers +5 vs. the Cowboys when they fell behind 28-14, but Aaron Rodgers came through with a rally and a 31-28 OT victory. The day ended with the Chargers covering +7 in a 22-16 loss at the 49ers.

All in all, I had favorites and underdogs splitting 6-6 ATS on the day (some people might say the Steelers also won as underdogs, but they actually closed as 1-point home faves), so again it was important to be selective to find the right dogs.

Like we always do on Monday, let’s recap all of Sunday’s action (including updating our season-long betting stats), take a peek in Contest Corner with a Circa Survivor update and how the Top 5 consensus plays did in Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest, then give our Best Bet on Monday Night Football and early picks for NFL Week 11 to do this all over again! 

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: 49ers rallied to beat Chargers 22-16 on Sunday Night Football but did NOT cover after closing as 8-point home favorites (game stayed Under 45.5). Overall on Sunday faves went 7-5 SU but just 6-6 ATS. Home teams went 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS (1 neutral-site game in Germany); Over/Unders tied 6-6.

More NFL: Faves lead 88-58-1 SU on season w/ 2 PKs, but dogs still lead 81-60-6 ATS (57.4%); home teams 81-63-1 SU w/ 4 neutral-site games, but road teams still lead 70-69-6 ATS (50.4%); Unders lead 86-61-2 (58.5%) & primetime Unders improved to 19-10-1 (65.5%).

Even more NFL: Faves went 6-2 SU & ATS in early games (including Buccaneers beating Seahawks 21-16 and covering as 2.5-point favorites in Germany) with upsets by the Vikings (+6.5 at Bills) and Lions (+3 at Bears). Home teams went 5-2 SU and ATS (not counting game in Germany). Unders led 5-3. In the afternoon games, dogs went 3-0 ATS with all 3 outright upsets by the Colts (+4.5 at Raiders), Packers (+3.5 in OT vs. Cowboys) and Cardinals (+3.5 at Rams). Road teams went 2-1 SU and ATS while all 3 games went Over their betting totals.

NBA: Faves/dogs split 3-3 SU and ATS with Timberwolves-Cavaliers closing pick-'em. The upsets were by the Lakers (+5 in 116-103 win vs. Nets), Thunder (+5 in 145-135 win at Knicks) and Kings (+4 in 122-115 win vs. Warriors). Home teams went 4-3 SU and ATS. Over/Unders split 3-3-1 with push in GSW-SAC (237).

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 125-70 SU with 3 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 101-87-7 ATS (53.8%). Home teams lead 121-77 SU and 102-89-7 ATS (53.3%). Overs maintained slim overall lead in totals wagering at 98-96-4 (50.5%).

CBB: Colorado upset No. 11 Tennessee 76-66 on Sunday afternoon as 16-point road underdogs and +1000 on the money line (odds of 10-1). The game went Over the betting total of 139.5 points.

NHL: Faves went 4-2 with upsets by the Sharks (+180 in 3-2 shootout win at the Wild) and Jets (+145 in 3-2 OT win at Kraken). Home/road teams split 3-3. Unders 4-2. On the season, faves lead 136-102 with 6 pick-'ems. Home teams lead 129-111 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders hold slim lead at 120-117-7.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 96 live entries in the $6.133 million prize pool after 19 were eliminated on Sunday (10 on Raiders, 8 on Bears, 1 on Saints) with 10 needing the Eagles on Monday Night Football. The biggest escape of the weekend was for the 30 that used the 49ers, who had to rally in the second half to beat the Chargers 22-16.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in NFL Week 10 (26-21-3, 55.3%, on season) with wins on Steelers +1.5 and Titans -2.5 but losses on Seahawks +3 in Germany (No. 1 choices drop to 7-3 on the year), Bears -3 and Browns +3.5. 

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in Week 10 (29-20-1, 59.2%, on season) with wins on Steelers +1.5 and Titans -2.5 but losses on Bears -2.5 (No. 1 choices drop to 6-4 on year), Browns +3.5 and Seahawks +3 in Germany.

Monday’s Takes

Commanders +11 vs. Eagles: As we wrote in our columns last week, we’re counting on parity to continue with the Commanders as double-digit underdogs on Monday Night Football. DD dogs are 8-4 ATS this season, and while the Eagles are the last undefeated team at 8-0 and also 5-3 ATS, they have 3 non-covering wins, including only beating the Texans 29-17 a week ago Thursday as 14-point chalk. Even if the Commanders don’t stay close like we obviously hope they do, we think the back-door cover will be open for Washington QB Taylor Heinicke.

Senators +105 vs. Islanders: We also have a swagger play for Monday as Ottawa snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out as we're looking for them to carry that momentum into a home game vs. the Islanders. Personally, we're passing on another swagger play as the Flames also snapped a 7-game losing streak but are laying -155 vs. the Kings.

Early picks for NFL Week 11

Panthers +12.5 at Ravens: Haven’t bet this yet as we expect it could go higher, but another DD dog. And while the Ravens usually lead by double digits, their defense has given up a lot of leads this year and the Panthers are playing better despite trading away RB Christian McCaffrey.

Lions +4 at Giants: As I mentioned on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I did bet this at +4 at Circa as there were a bunch of books at Giants -3.5 on Sunday night. We lost a contest play on the Texans +4.5 vs. the Giants, but trust the Lions a lot more and expect this to be our Best Bet of Week 11.

Colts +9.5 vs. Eagles: We’re going to go against the Eagles yet again and believe the time to bet this is now. My one regret Sunday was not betting the Colts vs. the Raiders. As I wrote in my column last week: “If Matt Ryan were to be put back into the starting QB job, I would be willing to take the points with the Colts, but not with Sam Ehlinger,” but I never saw a single report that interim coach Jeff Saturday was going to start Ryan. The Colts looked more like the team that was expected this season and should be able to stay within a TD of the Eagles. When betting early lines, the main question is which way the line is more likely to move. Since the Eagles are 11-point favorites vs, the Commanders, they’re expected to win in a rout, so even if they do we don’t think this line will go up from 9.5. Meanwhile, if it’s closer than expected or the Eagles lose, it’s likely to drop.

  

 
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