Tuley's Takes Today 11/11: Friday Best Bets, plus updating my 'takes' on full NFL Week 10 card

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 11, 2022 03:57 AM
Sidney_Crosby

Thursday was another diverse day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office with a mix of writing (UCLA betting preview for the L.A. Times), editing (for VSiN.com) and chores (“cutting the cord” by switching from cable to DirecTV streaming – hooking up our TVs took a lot longer than expected!) before Thursday Night Football.

But we were able to move the Tuley household into the 2020s, including also making sure Amazon Prime Video was re-installed again to watch the first leg of our Best Bet on a 2-team, 6-point teaser on the Panthers +8.5/Lions +9 easily come in as the Panthers beat the Falcons outright, 25-15, as 2.5-point home underdogs.

Let’s get to the rest of our daily recaps – starting with that game and updating our season-long NFL betting stats – and then looking for more plays on Friday’s card. As has become our custom here, we’ll then rerun our weekly Wednesday column (which replaces the one we used to do in “Point Spread Weekly” in which we give our takes on the full NFL Week 10 card) and include updates as some of the lines have been moving.

Thursday’s Recaps

NFL: Panthers upset the Falcons 25-15 on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 10. The Panthers did it after closing as 2.5-point home underdogs and +130 on the money line (stayed just Under the betting total of 41.5 points).

More NFL: Faves dipped to 81-53-1 SU on the season with 2 pick-’ems while dogs improved to 75-54-6 ATS (58.1%). Home teams improved to 74-59-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games, but road teams still lead 65-63-6 ATS (50.8%). Unders improved to 80-55-2 (59.3%) and primetime Unders improved to 18-10-1 (64.3%).

NBA: Faves/dogs split 2-2 SU and dogs led 3-1 ATS Thursday night. The upsets were by the Blazers (+10 in 106-95 win at Pelicans) and Wizards (+6 in 113-105 win vs. Mavericks). The Hornets (+11) covered in 117-112 loss at the Heat. Home teams went 3-1 SU but 2-2 ATS. Over/Unders split 2-2.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 110-63 SU with 2 PKs, but dogs lead 92-74-7 ATS (55.4%). Home teams lead 104-71 SU and 87-81-7 ATS (51.8%). Overs maintained a slim overall lead in totals wagering at 87-85-3 (50.6%).

CFB: Faves went 2-0 SU and ATS in only 2 games on the betting board (home teams also 2-0 SU and ATS while Unders 2-0) as Memphis (-6.5) beat Tulsa 26-10 (stayed way Under betting total of 62.5 points) and Louisiana (-3.5) beat Georgia Southern 36-17 (stayed Under 63).

CBB: Top 25 teams are still undefeated SU as all 5 won pretty easily on Thursday, but No. 5 Kansas (-24) did NOT cover in 82-59 win vs. North Dakota State.

NHL: Faves went 9-1 Thursday (after dogs went 14-7 the last 4 days, 31-17 the last 7 days). The lone upset was by the Coyotes (+240 in 2-0 win at Islanders). Home teams went 7-3. Overs 7-3. On the season, faves lead 122-93 with 6 PKs. Home teams lead 117-100 with 4 neutral-site games. Overs lead 111-104-6.

Friday’s Takes

Penguins +130 at Maple Leafs: After cashing Tuesday with the NHL’s Flyers +110 vs. the Blues as a swagger play after the Flyers had snapped their 6-game losing streak the game before (and with the Rockets +9 in the NBA on Wednesday), we have another swagger play here as the Penguins snapped their 7-game losing streak on Wednesday and now bring that swagger (aka momentum) into this game.

Early college football Best Bets for Saturday

Louisville +7 at Clemson: This is an anti-swagger play against Clemson as the Tigers just had their season-opening 8-game winning streak by Notre Dame (Marc Lawrence of playbook.com and a participant in the “Circa Friday Football Invitational” also used to call this a “bubble burst” game when a team would have a letdown after having its national title hopes dashed).

Central Florida +1.5 at Tulane: No. 17 Tulane is the Group of Five darling, but this line is low and dropping for a reason as we see No. 22 UCF pulling the minor upset.

North Texas +6 at UAB: This line is higher, but it still might be a case of the wrong team favored. I have North Texas (6-4) rated higher than UAB (4-5) and the only concern might be that the Mean Green has a letdown as it’s already bowl-eligible, but we hope the players are still motivated as they’re just a half-game behind UTSA in the Conference USA race.

 

And here's the rerun of our Wednesday column as we update our "takes" throughout the weekend:

Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the complete NFL schedule.

Week 9 was one of our best of the season as we went 3-1 ATS with our Best Bets on the Jets +11.5 vs. the Bills, Lions +3.5 vs. the Packers and Titans +12.5 at the Chiefs with the lone loss on the Panthers +7.5 at the Bengals. We also swept our 2-team, 6-point teasers, led by our top plays on Jaguars +8.5/Seahawks +8 and Seahawks +8/Rams +8.5.

In addition, my Uncle Brent (Musburger) invited me to appear on his “Countdown to Kickoff” NFL pregame show at 9:45 a.m. PT Sunday to ask about my “dog-or-pass philosophy” in light of the fact dogs have been dominating. It was perfect timing as dogs went 7-4-2 ATS in Week 9 and completing the first half of the 18-week schedule at 74-54-6 ATS (57.8%).

Musburger asked me for my top play and I went with the Lions (who were up to +4 at that time) and they pulled the 15-9 outright upset. I also gave out the Jets and Titans on the show, plus the Seahawks-Rams teaser in the "afternoon session," going 4-0 overall.

It just continues to show that parity is alive and well in the NFL, though we’re certainly trying to guard against getting too cocky or over-confident and trying to still be selective in finding the right dogs to back.

Without further ado, let’s tackle the full NFL Week 10 card. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll give my “pool play” strategies for those in contests where you have to pick every game.

Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of late Tuesday night unless otherwise noted. Check out VSIN.com's live NFL odds page here for current odds.

Donta_Foreman

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers

The surprising Falcons are 4-5 and tied for first place in the NFC South with the Buccaneers while the Panthers are just two games back at 2-7, but the perception of both teams is quite different as Carolina fired coach Matt Ruhle earlier in the season and traded away star RB Christian McCaffrey in a move that was viewed as giving up on this year and planning for the future. I could throw around a bunch of stats on both teams; however, the fact is they played just 11 days prior to this Thursday night’s game with the Falcons winning 37–34 in OT. That game was even more thrilling than the final score indicates as it looked like the Panthers were going to win on a late PJ Walker-to-D.J. Moore TD pass until Moore took off his helmet during his celebration in the end zone and the longer go-ahead PAT was missed. There’s no reason to believe this won’t come down to a one-score game again in Carolina. In fact, if Baker Mayfield (14-for-20, 155 yards, 2 TDs after subbing for Walker last week vs. the Bengals) was starting, I would probably be taking the Panthers plus the points or on the money line, but we’ll settle for some 2-point, 6-point teasers to some games on Sunday. Lions +8.5 at the Bears is my favorite “advantage teaser” (aka “Wong teaser”) of the week that captures the key number of 3 and 7 as I gave out on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night). Other possibilities are the Seahawks +8.5 vs. the Buccaneers in Germany, Steelers +8.5 vs. the Saints and Cardinals +9 at the Rams. 

Best Bet: Panthers +9/Lions +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Panthers in all my rare ATS contests that include Thursday Night Football, but just 67/33 in SU pools). Thursday update: as we wrote about, the line is down to 2.5, but that's fine for our teasing purposes. Thursday night update: WINNER on first leg!

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) in Germany

As stated above, I like the Seahawks in teasers, either starting with the Panthers on Thursday night or kicking off our early-Sunday action as this game kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT with the aforementioned games later in the day. I’m also contemplating taking the spread with the Seahawks as we can certainly make the claim that the Buccaneers and Tom Brady are only favored here based on past reputation. The Seahawks are 6-3 and leading the NFC West and have been playing better than the Bucs all season. Of course, no matter how bad Brady is playing, he always seems to be around for a shot at the end -- as we saw again last week as he pulled out a 20-17 win vs. the Rams out of his magic hat -- so the safest play again appears to be the teaser.

Best Bet: Seahawks +8.5/Lions +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests but Buccaneers 55/45 in SU pools).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

The Chiefs (6-2) have won their last two games since losing to the Bills and are now the second-choice at 5-1 in Super Bowl futures at DraftKings. Patrick Mahomes has also become the 2-1 favorite to win MVP as he leads a KC offense that is No. 2 to the Bills averaging 415.3 yards per game and a league-high 30.4 point per game. The Jaguars, who rallied to beat the reeling Raiders 27-20 after not taking a bye week following their London trip, are improved in many ways in coach Doug Pederson’s first season, but they’re still just 3-6 and 3-6 ATS with an offense that ranks No. 8 at a surprisingly high 367.4 yards per game behind Trevor Lawrence, but a middle-of-the-road defense that allows 343.4 yards per game. For me, this comes down to the fact that the Chiefs usually let teams stick around (they’re just 3-5 ATS, including non-covering wins against the Chargers, Raiders and Titans just this past Sunday night). We can't help but think this line is going to be bet to double digits by the public, so we’ll wait for the line to reach its highest as DD dogs are coming off a 3-0 ATS week and 8-4 ATS on the season).

Best Bet: Pass for now, but waiting for Jaguars +10 or better (pool play: Jaguars 67/33 in ATS contests though Chiefs still 75/25 in SU pools). Friday update: Treasure Island in Las Vegas and some offshore books have gone to 10, so we're holding out hope that others will do the same.

Dameon_Pierce

Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5)

The Giants (6-2) are one of the overachieving teams of the first half of the season, but a lot of people have been saying they’ve been doing it with mirrors and that belief was kinda validated when they were beaten 27-13 by the Seahawks in Week 8 before their bye week. The Texans are pretty much like everyone thought they would be at 1-6-1, but they’ve been more competitive than expected at 4-3-1 ATS, including covering as 14-point dogs last Thursday against the Eagles. This line has stayed pretty solid at 6.5, so we're not as confident that it’ll reach 7 (in games that have been right around +7 this season, the Texans are 2-1 ATS as they tied the Colts 20-20 and upset the Jaguars 13-6). We think they can also stay close to the Giants.

Best Bet: Texans +6.5 or better (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Giants still 70/30 in SU pools). Update: this line is dropping, so grab the best number you can if you're with us; I would still play it at 4.5 or higher.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m not that confident in the Steelers pulling the outright upset or covering as this small of a dog, but this is another advantage teaser. Pittsburgh's offense should see improvement with Kenny Pickett as they were happy enough with their WR depth with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Steven Sims to trade Chase Claypool to the Bears while the Steelers’ defense should also get a lift with the expected return of sackmaster T.J Watt (66 sacks in his last 63 games). We saw Monday night that the Saints are still too inconsistent on offense to be expected to beat a team like the Steelers by more than a TD. I mean, if they can stay close to a potent offense like the Dolphins as they did in a 16-10 loss in Week 7, why can’t they do the same vs. the Saints?

Best Bet: Steelers +8.5/Lions +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests but Saints still 55/45 in SU pools). Update: line is down to 1.5 at a lot of books, but teasing to +7.5 is still OK.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

After cashing with the Lions vs. the Packers on Sunday, I was going over the Week 10 lines for my Sunday night appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and this was the first one I circled as a teaser play. I’m also tempted to take the Lions as a Circa Sports Million or Westgate SuperContest play (especially as it’s looking like this line is creeping up to 3 at a lot of books), but there’s no doubt we believe the Lions will stay within a touchdown like we need with the 6-point teaser. The Lions haven’t been putting up ridiculous stats like they did in the first four weeks of the season when they had the No. 1 offense, but they did showed more of that in their 31-27 loss vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago and should return to that form against the Bears’ defense. Our main trepidation about taking the short line vs. the Bears is the emergence of Justin Fields and the offense, so the teaser is the safer play. 

Best Bet: Lions +8.5/Steelers +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests though Bears 55/45 in SU pools).

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

The Browns are tempting here as a dog, especially as we’re getting the hook at +3.5 in case this comes down to a field goal (especially as four of the Browns games have been decided by 3 points or less). The Browns are coming off their bye week after their 32-13 rout of the Bengals on Monday Night Football, but I just can’t trust them to keep up with the Dolphins’ offense with Tua Tagovailoa spreading it around to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, etc.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-5)

OK, this game is the poster child for why I think everyone should be tuning into my weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience" (another shameless plug for the show and my spot at 12:15 p.m. ET/9 a.m. PT Sunday night or 15 minutes into the archive). We missed the Vikings +9 and +8.5 earlier in the night, but grabbed the +7.5 and gave it out on the show as the Vikings (7-1) have had as good of a first half of the season as the Bills (6-2) and Kirk Cousins has the offensive weapons in WR Justin Jefferson, WR Adam Thielen and newly acquired TE T.J. Hockenson to keep up with the Bills. Of course, it was also learned that Buffalo QB Josh Allen has an elbow injury and might miss this game, so this line has plummeted to -5. We can no longer recommend a play on the Vikings (and those who joined us on the Vikings at +7.5 don’t need to take less than a TD) at this lower number, even if Case Keenum has to make a start against his former team.  

Best Bet: Pass if you didn’t get early Vikings number (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests at the depressed number and closer to 75/25 in SU pools). Update: this line continues to plummet to 3.5, so we're really glad we grabbed it early.

Titans_celebrate

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-3)

The Titans (5-3), who had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 20-17 OT loss at the Chiefs on Sunday night, still lead the AFC South thanks to the Colts, Jaguars and Texans all being below .500. The Broncos (3-5) are coming off their bye week after beating the Jaguars 21-17 in London two weeks ago. This line opened Titans -2 at DraftKings and is up to -3 at most books as of Tuesday afternoon, possibly an indicator that someone knows that Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) will be back after rookie QB Malik Willis filled in the past two weeks or at least speculating that will be the case. Regardless, the Titans’ offense is last in the league at just 278.5 yards per game as it relies mostly on RB Derrick Henry, who leads the NFL with 870 rushing yards. They now face the Broncos’ No. 2 defense, which allows just 288.4 yards per game. The Denver D has kept the team in most games, but QB Russell Wilson and the offense have been inconsistent, averaging just 15.1 points per game, so I’m not sure I’ll be including the Broncos in any teasers. The Over/Under is set low at 38.5, but it might now be low enough as the Broncos are 7-1 with the Under, including four in a row, while the Titans are on a five-game Under streak and 6-2 on the season.

Best Bet: Under 38.5 while passing on side (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests, but Titans 60/40 in SU pools, higher if Tannehill returns). Update: we again beat the market as the Over/Under has been bet down to 36.5. We would pass at that number. However (Friday update), most books back to 37.5, which is playable again with the Under.

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5)

This is another game where I’m a little torn on what to do. I usually love dogs that get a new head coach and we have that with the Colts against a Raiders’ team that has underperformed almost as much as the Colts. I mean, I also love fading a team like the Raiders (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) that is put into the favorite’s role, especially as they’re 2-4 ATS as chalk this season. If Matt Ryan were to be put back into the starting QB job, I would be willing to take the points with the Colts, but not with Sam Ehlinger.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests just on principle, but Raiders 70/30 in SU pools).

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

It’s frustrating how many dogs this week are just below the points that I would be willing to back them. I really think this is because oddsmakers are shading the numbers just a little overall in reaction to underdogs doing so well this season. OK, I’ll get off my soapbox to say I’ll pass on the Cardinals here as there are other dogs I like better on the card, even though it is tempting to fade the underachieving defending Super Bowl champion Rams (3-5, 2-5-1 ATS). However, I wouldn’t be surprised to add the Cards to my teaser portfolio closer to game day, so please check my updates in these “Tuley’s Takes Today” columns through the weekend. 

Best Bet: Pass for now, possibly Cardinals in teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests, especially at +3 or higher, though Rams still 55/45 in SU pools).

Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Green Bay Packers

The Packers have been one of the most disappointing teams of the first half of the season, though not for yours truly as I’ve made a fair amount by fading them in most of their games and also jumping on them when they covered as 10.5-point road dogs at Buffalo in their 27-17 spread-covering loss on Sunday Night Football in Week 8. After fading them again vs. the Lions in Week 9, I’m back on them again here as Aaron Rodgers certainly plays better at Lambeau Field (Marc Lawrence of playbook.com – and also a contestant in the Circa Friday Football Invitational on VSiN – passes on the tidbit that Rodgers is 29-10-2 ATS against teams coming off a SU and ATS win, including 4-0-1 ATS as a dog). The Cowboys (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) have certainly earned the right to be favored here, but Rodgers should be able to do enough to get the cover if not the outright win.

Best Bet: Packers +5 (pool play: Packers 60/40 in ATS contests, though Cowboys still 60/40 in SU pools). Friday update: line is down to 4.5 at most books and some at 4, so grab +4.5 if you can.

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

The whole world seems to be jumping on the 49ers’ bandwagon since the trade for RB Christian McCaffrey. I know he’s a stud, but the 49ers have had plenty of capable RBs yet are still only 4-4 this season and I don’t see why this spread is so high. It opened -6.5 on Sunday afternoon and was quickly bet up to 7, so that’s when I grabbed it. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 5-3 SU and ATS and have kind of become an overlooked team even though they’re just one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. They still have an overall roster that’s just as talented as the 49ers and should be able to keep this a one-score game with a great shot at the outright upset.

Best Bet: Chargers +7 (pool play: Chargers 60/40 in ATS contest – even higher at 7.5, lower if only offered 6.5 – but 49ers 67/33 in SU pools).

Taylor_Heinicke

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11)

Here we go again. The Eagles are the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team and oddsmakers must inflate their lines to try and balance the betting action. Despite being perfect on the scoreboard, the Eagles are only an above-average team to back at 5-3 ATS with non-covering wins vs. the Lions, Cardinals and Texans in their 29-17 win as 14-point chalk in the Week 9 Thursday nighter. Granted, the Eagles did rout Washington 24-8 in Week 3 as 6-point road faves, but the Commanders (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) have been playing better since then as they had a three-game winning streak against the Bears, Packers and Colts and then had the Vikings on the ropes this past Sunday before losing 20-17 and pushing vs. the closing line of +3. The Eagles’ main priority is to win and move on just like they did against the Texans, so we’re confident that even if the Commanders don’t keep this within one score like we want them to, the back door will still be open for Taylor Heinicke. 

Best Bet: Commanders +11 (pool play: Commanders 67/33 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 75/25 in SU pools).

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Jets +10 at Bills.  ​​​View more picks.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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