Tuley's Takes Today 10/4: Tuesday Best Bets, updated betting stats, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Monday was a long day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office, but ultimately worth our time.

I did some editing for VSiN’s upcoming NBA Betting Guide and did a lot of handicapping/research on next weekend’s college and pro football cards. I also had to take my son, Maddux to his Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice and wait for him to finish.

Of course, the focus of every Monday is the MNF game, but unfortunately we lost our Best Bet using the a 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Rams + 7.5 to the Lions + 8.5 next Sunday (we also lost a live teaser from Sunday’s action).

However, we actually had a winning day overall thanks to our MLB plays with the Rockies, a “swagger play” that we also gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” show on Sunday night, cashing a 1st 5 + 0.5 + 165 bet as they were tied 1-1 with the Dodgers through 5 innings (pushing on the 1st 5 ML) and going on to win the game 2-1 at + 290! Our second swagger play on the A’s 1st 5 + 0.5 + 105 didn’t fare as well as they trailed the Angels 4-0 after 5 innings, but the A’s rallied to also win 5-4 in 10 innings at + 160.

Our Monday ended by doing a “Monday night recap” story for VSiN.com, which you can find HERE, and of course this column. That story also borrows heavily from our daily betting recaps below.

We also have a Circa Sports Million update in Contest Corner with the results of the 1st Quarter prizes for best and worst (“Booby Prize”) records and then offer our Best Bets for Tuesday as well as some early plays for NFL Week 5.

Monday’s Recaps

NFL: 49ers beat the Rams 24-9 on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 4. The 49ers also covered after closing as 2-point home favorites and the game stayed Under the betting total of 42 points). Faves went 10-6 SU in Week 4, but dogs led 8-7-1 ATS. Home teams went 8-7 SU and 7-7-1 with 1 the 1 neutral-site game in London. Over/Unders split 8-8.

More NFL: Faves lead 36-26-1 SU on the season with 1 pick-'em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2), but dogs still lead 35-25-3 ATS (58.3 percent). Home teams now 33-29-1 SU with the 1 neutral-site games while home/road teams now tied 30-30-3 ATS. Unders lead 37-26-1 (58.7 percent) while primetime Unders improved to 9-4.

MLB: Underdogs went 8-6 Monday with the biggest upsets by the Rockies (+ 290 in 2-1 win at Dodgers), Tigers (+ 210 in 4-3 win at Mariners), Royals (+ 173 in 5-2 win at Guardians) and A's (+ 152 in 5-4 win vs. Angels); home teams went 8-6; Overs 9-4-1 with push in MIN-CHW (7).

More MLB: Faves lead 1,423-925 SU (60.6 percent) on the season with 37 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,268-1,126 (53 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but has been on the rise). Unders lead 1,170-1,102-123 (51.5 percent).

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million co-leaders DONT_STOP_BELIEVING-3 (alias of @CarmineBiancoWT) and CT TRIGG-2 (both 18-1-1) split the top 2 1st Quarter prizes of $150,000 and $60,000 and will collect $105,000 apiece. Five entrants (walterfootball.com-1, ACTION SPORTS CENTRA-1, PEPPER PICKS-1, TAIL PARTY-2 and WOSSAKOW-2) tied at 18-2 and win $13,000 each. IEAnalytics-1 (2-18) won the $25,000 1st Quarter Booby Prize for having the worst record.

ICYMI: Circa Survivor is down to 1,222 live entries after eliminations by those choosing Steelers (177), Lions (91), Colts (49), Browns (8) and Panthers (3). A whopping 689 (44.5 percent of the 1,550 that entered the weekend) escaped with the Packers winning on a FG as time expired in OT against the Patriots.

Tuesday’s Takes

Reds 1st 5 -110 vs Cubs: We’re not going to have many more “swagger/anti-swagger plays with the MLB regular season winding down, but we get both in this game as the Reds’ snapped a 6-game losing streak on Monday with a 3-1 win vs. the Cubs, who had their 7-game winning streak snapped! We get Cincinnati starter Luis Cessa (4-4, 4.76 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) but he has a 2.87 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his last 3 starts. We also have another anti-swagger play fading the Angels, who had a 7-game winning streak snapped by the A’s, who are our play at 1st 5 + 110 with Cole Irvin vs. Michael Lorenzen.

Early NFL Week 5 plays:

Steelers + 14 at Bills: The Bills are capable of blowing teams out, but they’ve played close games the last two weeks (loss at Dolphins, narrow win at Ravens). While the Steelers aren’t as good as those teams, parity still exists in the NFL and their defense should keep this relatively close whether Mike Tomlin goes back to Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett. This line (which was Bills -9.5 on the advance line) has been inflated too much. We gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and in this column on Monday and went ahead and bet it, but there are some indications (DraftKings and other books at -14 -115) that it might get bet higher.

Texans + 7 at Jaguars: Basically a fade against the Jaguars in the role of favorite, plus the Texans have been competitive despite 0-3-1 SU start. Again, there are some books at -7 -120, so you might want to wait to see if we get + 7.5.

Bengals + 3.5 -120 at Ravens: Now, we did make the right call to bet this one early as just about all books are down to Ravens -3.

back to news

Live On Air

Streaming Now: Sharp Money

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.


Jason Weingarten: Princeton (+10) vs Creighton. View more picks.


The Handle: The American League playoff picture is going to be highly competitive. Look to bet overs on win totals as opposed to a team making the playoffs. View more tips.