Tuley's Takes Today 10/31: Monday Best Bet, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 31, 2022 05:14 AM

Sunday was another thrilling, action-packed day that started early with the game in London and went well into the night, ending around 8:20 p.m. PT.

As I mentioned on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” (my regular spot is 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights, or 15 minutes into the archive) that favorites and underdogs ended up splitting 6-6-1 ATS on the day, explaining that the push was on the Dolphins-Lions shootout as Miami closed -4 and it landed on the number at 31-27. Some people might have faves leading 7-6 ATS (or even 8-5 if they consider the 49ers as faves even though they closed as 1-point dogs at the Rams). So, I like to point out that these ATS betting results are meant as a snapshot of the overall picture and for individual people it comes down to what numbers you bet the games at.

Personally, the day worked out well as we somehow won our Best Bet on the Packers + 11 (and + 11.5) as they stuck around long enough to get the back-door cover in their 27-17 loss at the Bills.

The day was a grind as we won earlier on the Panthers + 4 at the Falcons as we thought we were a loser, than a winner on DJ Moore’s miracle TD, then thought we were doomed when he stupidly took his helmet off for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that led to a missed PAT. Man, I’m going insane just reliving it, but they still covered in 37-34 OT loss.

Unfortunately, we lost our 3 other top plays on the Steelers, Cardinals and Giants, but still came out ahead as we hit all but one of our 2-team, 6-point teasers as the Rams (bet early when they were + 7.5) lost, but we won with all teasers using the Broncos, Saints and Jets. And this was after we hit both sides of Ravens-Buccaneers game on Thursday with the Bucs + 7.5 early and Ravens + 8 late.

All in all, a fun and profitable weekend as we also went 3-1 ATS with our college football plays on Friday and Saturday. We love football!

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s full-day of betting action, including a peek into Contest Corner, and then offer our “takes” on Monday (note: we don’t like the MNF game, but do like the Phillies again in Game 3 of the World Series) as well as early NFL Week 9 plays.

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Bills beat Packers 27-17 on Sunday Night Football, but did NOT cover after closing as 10.5-point home favorites (game stayed Under betting total of 47 points). On the day (including Broncos upsetting Jaguars 21-17 as 1-point dog in early London game), faves went 9-4 SU but split 6-6-1 ATS. Home teams went 7-5 SU, but road teams led 6-5-1 ATS. Unders went 7-6.

More NFL: Favorites lead 72-47-1 SU on the season with 2 pick-’ems, but underdogs still lead 66-50-4 ATS (56.9%). Home teams lead 65-53-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games, but road teams lead 61-54-4 ATS (53%). Unders lead 70-51-1 (57.9%) and primetime Unders lead 15-9 (62.5%).

Even more NFL: Faves went 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS with lone upset by Saints (+ 1.5 vs. Raiders) in the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. The push was the Dolphins (closed -4) in 31-27 win at Lions. The Panthers (+ 4) covered in 37-34 OT loss at Falcons. Home teams went 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS. Overs 5-2. In the afternoon games, faves/dogs split 2-2 SU and ATS with upsets by Commanders (+ 3 at Colts) and 49ers (closed + 1 at Rams after being favored all week). Road teams went 3-1 SU and ATS. Unders 3-1.

NBA: Faves/dogs split 4-4 SU, but dogs led 4-3-1 ATS with push as Mavericks (-9) beat Magic 114-105. The upsets were by the Pistons (+ 7.5 vs. Warriors), Spurs (+ 6 vs. Timberwolves), Lakers (+ 2.5 vs. Nuggets as they won 1st game after 0-5 start) and Pelicans (+ 2 at Clippers). Home teams went 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS; Overs 5-3.

More NBA: Faves lead 58-35 SU on the regular season with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs lead 46-41-6 ATS (52.9%). Home teams improved to 59-36 SU and 50-39-6 ATS (56.2%). Overs improved to 52-40-3 (56.5%).

NHL: Faves went 4-1 Sunday with lone upset by the Ducks (+ 160 in 4-3 win vs. Maple Leafs). Home teams went 3-2. Overs 3-2. On the season, faves lead 82-55 with 6 games closing pick-'em. Home teams lead 79-62 with 2 neutral-site games. Unders dipped to 72-70-1.

MLB (ICYMI): Faves/dogs and home/road teams are both 1-1 so far in the series while Overs lead 1-0-1. Dogs still lead 18-17 overall in the playoffs with 1 game closing pick-'em. Home teams improved to 21-15 overall. Over/Unders remain at .500 with the push at 17-17-2 overall.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor will have 123 live entries after NFL Week 8 as only 2 were eliminated on Sunday: 1 on the Jaguars in their 21-17 loss to the Broncos in the early game in London and 1 on the Colts in their 17-16 loss to the Commanders. The Top most-selected teams all won: Cowboys (61), Eagles (38), Falcons (12), Dolphins (4), Seahawks (3), Titans (2) and Bills (2), plus 1 more on Patriots.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 2-2 so far in NFL Week 8 (21-17-1 on season) with wins on Patriots -2.5 (No. 1 picks improved to 6-2) and Titans -2.5. Losses on the Raiders -1.5 and Cardinals + 3.5. Browns + 3.5 is pending on Monday Night Football.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams have split 2-2 so far in NFL Week 8 (23-16 on season) with wins on Patriots -2.5 (No. 1 picks improved to 5-3) and Titans -2. Losses on Cardinals + 3.5 and Raiders -1.5. Browns + 3.5 is pending on MNF.

Monday’s Takes

Phillies 1st 5 + 105 vs. Astros: We now get the Phillies as short home dogs. Noah Syndergaard hasn’t been used as much down the stretch and doesn't always pitch a lot of innings, but his stats are very similar to Houston starter Lance McCullers Jr. (and Syndegaard has 0.82 WHIP in last 3 starts) since returning to the NL, so we’re counting on him to keep the Phillies close early to cash this wager. We also like that our favorite Phillies (former Cub Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper) will be getting more at-bats against a right-handed starter. Remember, we took them in Game 1 even though they were facing Justin Verlander.

NFL Week 9

Lions + 3.5 vs. Packers

Panthers + 9 at Bengals (bet before their game on MNF)

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