Tuley's Takes Today 10/3: Monday Best Bets, NFL Week 5 leans, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Sunday was another thrilling day of pro football with a little bit of MLB mixed in.

It started extra early in the Tuley’s Takes home office with the Vikings-Saints game from London starting at 6:30 a.m. PT here in Vegas. And it didn’t end for yours truly until filing this column early Monday morning.

In between, we experienced another roller-coaster of a day. Personally, we were thrilled as we won our two biggest bets of the day on the plays we gave out last Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on VSiN (our regular spot is at 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT, or 15 minutes into the archived replay): Titans + 3.5 at the Colts and Patriots + 9.5 at the Packers (which we rebet when it went to + 10.5). We also hit our biggest 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Saints + 8.5 with the Falcons + 8 vs. the Browns, which we then changed to Saints + 8.5/Cardinals + 7.5 in the VSiN Best Bets column when the Falcons line dipped a little.

Underdogs had another good Sunday at 8-5-1 ATS, so it should have been a good day for us. Somehow, we went 2-3 with our own Circa Sports Million entry (losses on the Bears, Texans and Jaguars), though we fortunately went 3-2 with a group entry that is off to a decent start to the season at 13-7. We also survived in Circa Survivor on the Eagles with our two live entries.

Again, it was an up-and-down day like that, as we’ll detail in our regular daily recaps below, plus we’ll update the season-long betting stats in NFL and MLB and take a peek in Contest Corner before making some Best Bets for Monday as well as a few early bets for NFL Week 5.

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Chiefs upset the Buccaneers 41-31 on Sunday Night Football as 2-point road underdogs as the game flew Over the betting total of 47.5 points. Favorites went 8-6 SU on Sunday, but dogs led 8-5-1 ATS with the 6 outright upsets by the Titans, Seahawks, Jets, Falcons, Cardinals and Chiefs. The Saints and Patriots covered in SU losses, while the push was in the Bills' 23-20 win at the Ravens. Road teams went 7-6 SU and 7-5-1 ATS on Sunday (not counting the neutral-site London game). Overs went 8-6.

More NFL: ON THE SEASON, faves lead 35-26-1 SU with 1 pick-’em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2), but underdogs still lead 35-24-3 ATS (57.4 percent). Home teams dipped to 32-29-1 SU (1 neutral site) while road teams took 30-29-3 ATS lead. Unders dipped to 36-26-1 (58.1 percent) while primetime Unders dipped to 8-4.

Even more NFL: Vikings (-4) beat Saints 28-25 in London to kick-off Sunday's action, but they did NOT cover vs. closing line for our grading purposes here. However, the Vikes did cover earlier line of -2.5, including in contests like the Circa Sports Million and SuperContest. The game went Over the total of 42 in a wild back-and-forth 4th quarter that ended with a double-doink FG attempt by Will Lutz of the Saints that would have sent to game to overtime. Faves went 5-4 SU in 1 p.m. ET games and 4-4-1 ATS with the Bills (-3) pushing in 23-20 come-from-behind win at the Ravens. Early upsets were by the Titans (+ 4 at Colts), Seahawks (+3.5 at Lions), Jets (+3 at Steelers) and Falcons (+1 vs. Browns). Home teams went 5-4 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. Unders 5-4. In the afternoon session, faves went 2-1 SU, but dogs led 2-1 ATS as Packers (-9.5) failed to cover in 27-24 OT win vs. Patriots. Raiders (-3) did cover in 32-23 win vs. Broncos while Cardinals (+1) upset Panthers 26-16. Home teams were also 2-1 SU, but road teams led 2-1 ATS. Overs 2-1.

MLB: Faves went 8-7 Sunday, including Braves (-128) beating Mets 5-3 on Sunday Night Baseball for their 100th win of the season and reducing their NL East magic number to 1. The biggest upsets were by the Rockies (+ 231 in 4-1 win at Dodgers) and A's (+ 220 in 10-3 win at Mariners). Home teams also led 8-7. Overs 8-6-1 with push in MIA-MIL (7).

More MLB: Faves lead 1,417-917 SU (60.7 percent) on the season with 37 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace and well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,260-1,120 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but has been on the rise). Unders lead 1,166-1,093-122 (51.6 percent).

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 1,222 live entries after eliminations by those choosing the Steelers (177), Lions (91), Colts (49), Browns (8) and Panthers (3). A whopping 689 (44.5 percent of the 1,550 that entered the weekend) escaped with the Packers winning on a FG as time expired in OT against the Patriots. Actually, 1,218 have advanced to Week 5 with 4 still needing to survivie on the 49ers on Monday Night Football.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 4-1 in Week 4 (13-7 on season) with wins by the Vikings -2.5 vs. Saints in London (No. 1 picks improved to a perfect 4-0), Cowboys -3 vs. Commanders, Raiders -2.5 vs. Broncos and Cardinals + 1.5 at Panthers. The lone loss was Steelers -3 vs. the Jets.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 5-0 in Week 4 (15-5 on season, 75 percent) with wins by Vikings -2.5 vs. Saints in London, Cowboys -3 vs. Commanders, Cardinals + 1 at Panthers, Titans + 3.5 at Colts and Raiders -3 vs. Broncos.

Monday’s Takes

Rams + 7.5/Lions + 8.5: Again, we gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as we believe the Rams-49ers game on Monday Night Football will be a one-score game, and we’ll pair it in a 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Lions at the Patriots next Sunday. The Lions, who lost in the role of home favorite vs. the Seahawks, are back to their preferred underdog role in Week 5 and we’re teasing them over a touchdown just in case.

Early NFL Week 5 plays:

Steelers + 14 at Bills: The Bills are capable of blowing teams out, but they’ve played close games the last two weeks (loss at Dolphins, narrow win at Ravens). While the Steelers aren’t as good as those teams, parity still exists in the NFL and their defense should keep this relatively close whether Mike Tomlin goes back to Mitch Trubisky or turns over the keys to the car to rookie Kenny Pickett. This line (which was Bills -9.5 on the advance line) has been inflated too much.

Texans + 7 at Jaguars: Basically a fade against the Jaguars in the role of favorite, plus the Texans have been competitive despite a 0-3-1 SU start.

Bengals + 3.5 -120 at Ravens: We expect this line to dip to 3, so we advise to grab the hook if you can.

MLB dogs: We didn’t have 1st 5 lines overnight, but we have “swagger plays” on the Rockies + 280 at the Dodgers as the Rockies snapped a 7-game losing streak on Sunday, plus the A’s + 160 vs. the Angels as they snapped a 6-game skid. Both pitching matchups aren’t the most favorable for us (Jose Urena vs. Tony Gonsolin and Adrian Martinez vs. Patrick Sandoval), but these teams got some swagger back with their wins, plus the Dodgers don’t have anything to play for and could pull Gonsolin early or rest starters. We’ll also be looking at 1st 5 lines.

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