Tuley's Takes Today 10/25: Tuesday Best Bet, updated betting stats, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Monday was a light sports day with no MLB playoff game as the Phillies-Astros World Series was set up with both teams clinching on Sunday.

There were NBA and NHL games slated for Monday night, but the focus of the day was clearly the Monday Night Football between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots even though the Patriots were big favorites.

In the world of Circa Survivor, which drew a Las Vegas-record 6,133 entries at $1,000 apiece for a football contest, the Patriots were the most-picked NFL team with 175 of the 382 entries that entered the weekend choosing the favorite. For those who don’t know, survivor or elimination contests require players to pick one NFL team each week to win straight-up. One loss and you’re eliminated, plus you can only use a team once during the season.

The Bears upset the Patriots 33-14 as 8.5-point road underdogs (we posted our “Monday night recap” story HERE to leave just 125 live entries in Circa Survivor heading into next weekend.

As for our own wagering, we lost our Best Bet of the day (and only bet) on a 2-team, 6-point teasers on Patriots -2/Under 46 as both legs lost.

Let’s recap the rest of Monday's betting action, including Contest Corner, and then look for a Best Bet for Tuesday as well as listing our early bets for NFL Week 8. Note: our Wednesday column will include our “takes” on the full NFL card.

Monday’s Recaps

NFL: Bears (8.5-point road underdogs) upset Patriots 33-14 on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 7 (game went Over the betting total of 40 points). Faves went 9-5 SU on the weekend (outright upsets by the Panthers, Commanders, Giants, Seahawks and Bears), but just 7-7 ATS. Home teams also went 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS. Over/Unders alo split 7-7.

More NFL: Favorites dropped to 63-42-1 SU on the season with 2 pick-’ems, but dogs improved to 59-44-3 ATS (57.3%). Home teams lead 58-47-1 SU with 2 neutral-site games, while road teams improved to 54-49-3 ATS (52.4%). Unders dipped to 63-44-1 (58.9%), while primetime Unders dipped to 14-8 (63.6%).

NBA: Underdogs went 5-3 ATS on Monday with all 5 pulling outright upsets: Spurs (+ 8.5 at Timberwolves), Bulls (+ 5.5 vs. Celtics), Blazers (+ 5 vs. Nuggets), Raptors (+ 3.5 at Heat) and Rockets (+ 2.5 vs. Jazz). Home teams went 6-2 SU and ATS. Unders went 6-2.

More NBA: After 7 days of the regular season, faves still lead 32-18 SU with 1 pick-’em, but dogs improved to 26-19-5 ATS (57.8%). Home teams retook 27-24 SU lead, but road teams still lead 26-20-5 ATS (56.5%). Overs still lead 25-23-3 (52.1%).

NHL: Faves went 3-1 with Blues-Jets & Maple Leafs-Golden Knight both closing pick-'em. The lone upset was by the Capitals (+ 115 in 6-3 win at Devils). Home teams went 4-2. Unders also went 4-2. On the season, faves lead 57-35 with 5 pick-'ems, home teams lead 56-39 with 2 neutral-site games and Overs still lead 51-45-1.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 125 live entries after NFL Week 7 as there were a week-high 175 entrants on the Patriots, who lost 33-14 to the Bears on Monday Night Football. The weekend started with 382 live entries, but 2 of the Top 3 picks lost as 70 were on Buccaneers in addition to the Patriots (175).

Circa Sports Million has a new leader in MERCILESS916-1, who went 3-2 in NFL Week  7 to take over 1st place at 27-7-1 (79.4%) with 27.5 points (wins are worth 1 point, pushes worth 0.5) by a half-point over GAMBLING RATS-1 (26-7-2) and TAIL PARTY-2 (27-8) with 27 points.

SuperContest leader GAMBLING RATS only went 2-3 in NFL Week 7, but still held onto 1st place at 26-8-1 (76.5%), a half-point (wins worth 1 point, pushes worth 0.5) ahead of HEINEKEN 21 and ADAM 37 at 26-9.

Tuesday’s Takes

Warriors + 2.5 at Suns: There’s not much to choose from on a light Tuesday schedule, but it’s not often we get the defending champion Warriors as underdogs. The Suns are obviously tough at home, but the Warriors went into Phoenix on Christmas Day last season for an upset victory. We’ll take Stephen Curry and Co. and trust them to do it again as they certainly know how to come through in marquee matchups like this as they’re 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record while the Sus are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record..

NFL Week 8:

Packers + 11.5 at Bills (Circa): Yes, we know the Packers’ shortcomings, and even though we didn’t fade them Sunday with the Commanders, we’ve made money betting against them this season. However, they still shouldn’t be this big of underdogs, even to the Bills.

Giants + 3 at Seahawks (Circa): We know the Seahawks are overachieving, especially on offense, but still no respect for the 6-1 Giants. As of early Tuesday, there are a few books that have gone to 2.5 and others adding juice on the + 3, so we believe followers should grab the 3 ASAP.

Steelers + 10.5 at Eagles (DraftKings): Eagles are league’s only undefeated team, but Steelers showed last week in their upset of the Buccaneers and in their spread-covering loss at the Dolphins that they can still be live dogs. We were afraid this line might also drop, but a few Las Vegas books (BetMGM, Wynn and Station Casinos) have actually gone to 11.

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