Tuley's Takes Today 10/18: Tuesday Best Bets, updated betting stats, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Monday was a day for catching up some sleep after a long sports betting weekend, and also some chores around the Tuley’s Takes home office.

It was also spent working on our handicapping for next weekend’s football games and taking our son, Maddux, to his Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice. It unfortunately didn’t include playoff baseball as the Guardians-Yankees Game 5 was rained out.

We did win our Best Bet (our only bet) of the day on the Broncos-Chargers Under 45.5. For what happened there, check out the “Monday night recap” story HERE that I post after each MNF game, along with my updated NFL betting stats.

You can also find those below as they’re part of this daily column, Let’s also peek into Contest Corner for updates on Circa Survivor as well as the leaderboards for the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest.

Monday’s Recaps

NFL: Chargers beat Broncos 19-16 on an injured Dustin Hopkins' 39-yard FG in OT. The ViewFromVegas is the Chargers did NOT cover after closing as 4-point home favorites (game stayed well Under the betting total of 45.5 points).

More NFL: Faves went 8-6 SU in Week 6, but split 7-7 ATS with the Broncos the first dog to cover but not win outright. Faves 54-37-1 SU on season with 2 pick-'ems, but dogs lead 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%). Home teams went 8-6 SU but split 7-7 ATS in Week 6. Home teams lead just 49-42-1 SU with 2 neutral-site games in London, but road teams lead 47-42-3 ATS (52.8%). Unders went 10-4 on the week and improve back over 60% to 56-37-1 (60.2%), while primetime Unders improved to 13-6 (68.4%) on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.

MLB: Monday’s Guardians-Yankees decisive Game 5 was rained out and will (hopefully) be played at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Underdogs still lead 8-7 in LDS round and 13-10 overall in playoffs with 1 pick-'em. Home teams lead 10-5 this round and 13-11 overall. Overs 8-6-1 this round and 12-11-1 overall.

NHL: Faves went 6-3 on Monday with upsets by the Coyotes (+ 425 at Maple Leafs), Canadiens (+ 210 vs. Penguins) and Bruins (+ 120 vs. Panthers), and now 31-16 on season. Home teams went 5-4 Monday and are 27-18 overall with 2 neutral-site games in Prague. Overs went 5-4 Monday and are 26-20-1 on the season (mostly thanks to 10-3-1 on Saturday).

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is still at 382 live entries heading into NFL Week 7 as the 43 players on the Chargers survived in OT (a tie would have been the same as a loss). A total of 336 were eliminated in Week 6 on the Buccaneers (123), Packers (102), 49ers (60), Ravens (31), Cardinals (8), Bears (6), Browns (5) and Dolphins (1) 

Circa Sports Million has a new sole leader as TAIL PARTY-2, who was in a 3-way tie for 1st place heading into NFL Week 6, went 4-1 to stand alone on top at 25-5 (83.3%). MERCILESS916-1 also went 4-1 to move into 2nd place with 24.5 points at 24-5-1 (82.8%) as the contest is one-third of the way through the 18-week NFL regular season.

The Westgate SuperContest’s leader is GAMBLING RATS at 24-5-1 (82.8%) after Week 6, which also wraps up the first 6-week in-season contest, so GAMBLING RATS wins $75,000. ADAM 37 and WAGERTALK (both 24-6, 80%) will split 2nd place ($25,000) and 3rd place ($10,000) money for $17,500 apiece (results become official when the SuperBook posted the update standings on Tuesday).

Tuesday’s Takes

Phillies 1st 5 + 100 at Padres: I’m torn as I like both teams in this series, but two of my favorite players (former Cub Kyle Schwarber and Las Vegas native Bryce Harper) are on the Phillies, plus I’ve never a fan of Yu Darvish, so I’ll take the Phillies in Game 1, though I’m thinking I might just on the dog (which will probably be the Padres when the series moves to Philadelphia) throughout the series.

Guardians 1st 5 + 0.5 -110 at Yankees: I gave this out in Monday’s column, but Game 5 was rained out in New York for a refund. Some books’ house rules call for MLB playoff games to be action whenever play, but since we listed pitchers (Aaron Civale vs. Jameson Taillon), our plays are no-action with the Yankees replace Taillon with Nestor Cortes. My original decision to be the Guardians was partly due to Aaron Civale having a 0.71 WHIP in his last three starts and preferring him over Taillon. I’m sticking with the Guardians even though Nestor is a tougher matchup than Taillon, though there’s some speculation that the Guardians might now start Shane Bieber on short rest. I think it’s safe to say it’s “all hands on deck” for both teams. As of early Tuesday morning, the Guardians 1st 5 was + 0.5 -110 at William Hill books and + 145 on the 1st 5 money line.

NFL Week 7

As given out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version):

Giants + 3 at Jaguars

Lions + 7 at Cowboys

Panthers + 10 vs. Buccaneers (but also said to wait as it could go higher, and it has as + 10.5 now available)


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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.