Tuley's Takes Today 10/17: Monday Best Bets, Contest Corner, plus early NFL Week 7 picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Sunday was another exciting roller-coaster of a day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as I stayed home to watch all the games and make Buffalo and BBQ chicken wings in my double-bin air fryer.

And even though those were as good as they sound, they weren’t the highlight of my day as we started off with a 3-0 ATS start with our Best Bets as the Jets + 7.5 at the Packers, Falcons + 4.5 vs. the 49ers and Patriots + 2.5 at the Browns all not only covered but pulled outright upsets.

It was really setting up to be an epic day as the Panthers (+ 10 at the Rams) jumped out to an early lead, but unfortunately the Panthers couldn’t hold on but not only lost but also failed to cover in a 24-10 loss. Then, on Sunday night, the Cowboys (+ 6.5) rallied to get within 20-17 and looked like they might cover, but ended up losing 26-17 and failing to cover (though we still almost got there with a late FG attempt).

Still, it was a winning day including winning posted 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Saints + 8/Seahawks + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8/Seahawks + 8.5, but it could have been so much better.

Regardless, as you’ll see from our betting recaps below, underdogs and Unders continue to be the way to go in the NFL through nearly six weeks of the season, so let’s get to our recaps as well as taking a peek into Contest Corner, where there was more carnage in Circa Survivor.

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Eagles beat Cowboys 26-17 on Sunday Night Football and held on to cover as 6.5-point home favorites as Cowboys missed late FG (went just Over closing total of 42.5). Faves/dogs split 6-6 SU and ATS on Sunday. Home teams led 7-5 SU and ATS. Unders were 8-4 on day (9-4 in Week 6, including TNF).

More NFL: Faves lead 53-37-1 SU on the season with 2 pick-’ems (WAS-DET and TEN-WAS), but dogs still lead 51-37-3 ATS (58%). Home teams are 48-42-1 SU with 2 neutral-site games, but road teams lead 46-42-3 ATS (52.3%). Unders lead 55-37-1 (59.8%), primetime Unders dip to 12-6 (66.7%).

Even more NFL: Underdogs went 5-3 ATS in early Sunday games with 5 outright upsets by Steelers (+ 9.5 vs. Buccaneers), Jets (+ 8 at Packers), Giants (+ 5.5 vs. Ravens), Falcons (+ 3.5 vs. 49ers) and Patriots (+ 2.5 at Browns). Road teams also 5-3 SU and ATS. Unders led 5-3. Bills rallied to beat Chiefs 24-20 and covered as 2.5-point road favorites as chalk went 2-1 SU and ATS in afternoon games. Rams (-9.5) also rallied to win and cover in 24-10 win vs. Panthers. Seahawks (+ 2.5) upset Cardinals 19-9. Home teams also 2-1 SU and ATS. Unders 3-0.

MLB: Yankees (-160 road faves) beat Guardians 4-2 Sunday night to force a decisive Game 5 back in New York on Monday (game stayed Under the low betting total of 6-5). Underdogs still lead 8-7 in LDS round and 13-10 overall in playoffs with 1 pick-'em. Home teams lead 10-5 this round and 13-11 overall. Overs 8-6-1 this round and 12-11-1 overall.

NASCAR: Joey Logano won the South Point 400 Cup race earlier Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The ViewFromVegas is Logano was around 15-1 as he clinched a spot in the "final four" for the season championship.

NHL: No games? Thanks for taking it easy on me! Faves lead 25-13 on season. Home teams lead 22-14 overall (not counting 2 neutral-site games in Prague). Overs lead 21-16-1 after going 10-3-1 on Saturday.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 382 live entries as 330 were eliminated Sunday on Buccaneers (123), Packers (102), 49ers (60), Ravens (31), Cardinals (8), Browns (5) and Dolphins (1). Actually, just 339 are on to Week 7 as 43 still need the Chargers on Monday Night Football.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in Week 6 (18-11-1 on season) with wins on the Bengals -1.5 at Saints (No. 1 picks are 5-1) and Bills -2.5 at Chiefs, but losses on Buccaneers -8 at Steelers, Cowboys + 6 at Eagles and Dolphins + 3.5 vs. Vikings.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in Week 6 (20-10 on season) with wins on Bengals -2 at Saints (No. 1 picks are 4-2), Bills -2.5 at Chiefs and Falcons + 5.5 vs. 49ers. Losses were on Dolphins + 3.5 vs. Vikings and Cowboys + 6 at Eagles.

Monday’s Takes

Broncos-Chargers Under 45.5: People are already moaning about getting Russell Wilson and the Broncos in primetime again. It’s tough to back them as a dog against a Chargers team that is starting to learn how to win (though they were lucky to beat the Browns 30-28 on Sunday and didn’t cover earlier spreads of -2.5 and pushing on -2 for some bettors and contest players). Except for allowing 32 points to the Raiders in Week 4, the Denver D has played pretty well in trying to pick up Wilson, so the play here in on the Under, which is set surprisingly high at 45.5.

Guardians 1st 5 + 125 at Yankees: In Game 5, let’s take the Guardians to keep it close early with Aaron Civale taking on Jameson Taillon in a pretty even pitching matchup. At least, Civale has been better down the stretch as he has a 0.71 WHIP in his last three starts. Note: the Guardians 1st 5 + 0.5 is just -125 in case the game is tied through 5 innings as those bets have been even more successful the past few weeks as many followers will attest.

NFL Week 7

As given out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version):

Giants + 3 at Jaguars

Lions + 7 at Cowboys

Panthers + 10 vs. Buccaneers

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.