Tuley's Takes Today 10/14: Friday Best Bets, including 'takes' on full NFL Week 6 card

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

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Thursday was a full sports betting day with an MLB playoff game during the afternoon, plus 10 NHL games and, of course, Thursday Night Football with an NFL game and a couple of CFB games as well.

A second MLB playoff game was originally on the schedule with Guardians at Yankees. It was postponed early in the day, but at least we had plenty of football to watch at night. Unfortunately, we lost our “Best Bet” on the Commanders-Bears Over 37.5. We wrote: Last Thursday’s 12-9 win by the Colts over the Broncos was said to set back offensive football by 50 years, and the conventional wisdom out there is that this Thursday’s game could do the same.” We thought the total was adjusted too low, but we were wrong. Very wrong, as the Commanders beat the Bears 12-7 and the Under was never in doubt.

At least we won our Mariners 1st 5 + 0.5 runs and + 120 money line bets as they led the Astros 2-1 after the first 5 innings, though they lost 4-2 to fall down 2-0 to really hurt the chances of our + 200 series bet coming in, but at least we’re still making money.

Let’s recap Thursday’s (full-game) betting action, and then look for more plays on Friday. In addition, as we’ve started doing this season, we’ll rerun that Wednesday column where I give my “takes” on every NFL game this weekend.

Thursday’s Recaps

NFL: Commanders rallied, then held on for a 12-7 win at Bears, who came up just short of goal line on their last offensive play, on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 6. The Commanders also covered after closing as 1-point road favorites (stayed waaaaay Under betting total of 39 points).

More NFL: Faves lead 47-31-1 SU with 2 pick-’ems (WAS-DET in Week 2, TEN-WAS in Week 5) but dogs still lead 45-31-3 ATS (59.2%). Home teams dip to 41-37-1 SU with 2 neutral games while road teams improved to 41-35-3 ATS (53.9%). Unders lead 47-33-1 (58.8%), primetime Unders 12-5 (70.6%).

CFB: For those who wanted to watch offensive football (instead of "offensive" football) on Thursday night, West Virginia (+ 3, + 142 money line) upset Baylor 43-40 (went waaaaay Over 55) and Central Florida (-23.5) routed & covered 70-13 vs. Temple (went waaaaay Over 46.5).

MLB: Astros (-146 home favorites) rallied to beat Mariners 4-2 to take 2-0 lead in their ALDS (game stayed just Under betting total of 6.5 runs). Guardians-Yankees Game 2 was postponed and is rescheduled for Friday afternoon before the 2 NLDS games.

More MLB: Favorites are 5-2 so far in League Division Series round and took 8-7 overall lead in playoffs after underdogs led 5-3 with 1 pick-'em in wild-card round. Home teams also lead 5-2 this round and are now tied 8-8 overall. Overs dipped to 4-3 this round and also tied 8-8 overall.

NHL: Faves/dogs split 5-5 Thursday with upsets by the . Including neutral-site games in Prague, faves lead 12-8 on the season. Home teams went 6-4 Thursday and lead 12-6 overall (of course, not counting the 2 neutral-site games in Prague). Under went 6-4 Thursday and now Over/Unders tied 10-10.

Friday’s Takes

Navy + 12.5 at SMU: We understand why SMU is favored in this matchup of 2-3 teams as Navy isn’t as strong as we’ve seen in recent years, but the Mustangs shouldn’t be favored by nearly two touchdowns. Navy can still run the ball (averaging 231.8 yards per game) while SMU is 106th in run defense and 103rd in total defense, so that should help the Midshipmen keep this game close.

Padres 1st 5 + 110 at Dodgers: We haven’t backed the Padres yet in this series (though we wish we had in Game 2), but we’ll take them here in pivotal Game 3 as home underdogs. The Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin has obviously had the better season, but the Padres’ Blake Snell has much more and better playoff experience and we’ll count on him to keep this close early.

And here's our breakdown of the full NFL Week 6 card:

Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.

You’re looking live at the ViewFromAnaheim as I’m on a little family trip with my wife and son, Maddux, for Oogie Boogie’s Halloween Bash at Disney California Adventure, but a sports betting reporter/handicapper’s job never takes a true vacation, especially during football season.

Besides, this trip has been paid for with our winnings this NFL season as our beloved underdogs are hitting at 60% so far at 45-30-3 ATS with 2 pick-’ems as graded vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas after going 10-5 ATS in Week 5.

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Personally, we went 5-2 ATS with our Best Bets that we listed in the Sunday version of this column with wins on the Giants + 8.5 vs. Packers, Texans + 7 at Jaguars, Falcons + 10 at Buccaneers, Cowboys + 5.5 at Rams and Bengals + 3.5 -120 at Ravens (and 6-2 ATS if including the Browns + 3 vs. the Chargers from earlier in the week for those who jumped in early before the line moved). The losses were on the Steelers + 14 at Bills and Lions + 3.5 at Patriots.

We also went 4-1 with our plays in our big Vegas football contests, including one entry in Circa Sports Million that is 17-8 (68%), though my other entries are mostly playing for Quarter prizes unless we can string together some more 4-1 or 5-0 weeks.

But that’s the goal, so let’s get to our comprehensive look at the NFL Week 6 card. Loyal readers know us as a “dog-or-pass” bettor, though I have plenty of followers that bet a lot more chalk than I do that still read my breakdowns as they feel that if I can’t made a case for the dog that they see it as a “buy” sign on the chalk. Per usual, even if I don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I give my “pool play” recommendations for those in contests where you have to pick every game.

Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of Tuesday night unless otherwise noted. Check out VSIN.com's live NFL odds page here for current odds.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-1)

Last Thursday’s 12-9 win by the Colts over the Broncos was said to set back offensive football by 50 years, and the conventional wisdom out there is that this Thursday’s game could do the same, especially as primetime Unders are off to an 11-5 start this season. However, in addition to being a “dog-or-pass” bettor, we’re usually an “Under-or-pass” bettor, but above all that we’re a contrarian bettor. If the whole world is saying one thing, we tend to fade the masses, so the Over 37.5 (the lowest total of Week 6) appeals to us. I don’t have much to offer in the way of stats as the Bears have the No. 31 offense at a mere 274 yards per game while the Commanders are No. 17 at 341.6 ypg and both teams are 3-2 with the Under, but QBs Justin Fields and Carson Wentz have shown some signs of competency from time to time. Besides, the Washington and Chicago defense are No. 17 and No. 22 in total defense and allow 23.6 and 21.2 points per game (and that adds up to closer to 44 points), so that gives hope to both teams to help put up enough points to get Over this depressed (and depressing) number.

Best Bet: Over 37.5 (pool play: Bears in all of my rare contests that use Thursday night games). Update: LOSER.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I already had a 2-team, 6-point teaser from the Chiefs -1 to this game at Buccaneers -2.5, but the Chiefs’ 30-29 win over the Raiders on Monday night makes that a refund. However, this is a good time to start fresh with my recommended teaser plays for Sunday as we have several “advantage teasers” (or “Wong teasers” for the old-school bettors out there) that capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. We’ve also already gone on record with the Seahawks vs. the Cardinals, so our top teaser for Week 6 is Buccaneers -2.5/Seahawks + 8.5, but we’ll also be doing other combinations with the following plays: Saints + 8 vs. the Bengals, Jaguars + 8.5, Patriots + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8.5 vs. the Bills. 

Best Bet: Bucs -2.5/Seahawks + 8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teaser, plus other teasers (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but closer to 90/10 in SU pools). 

Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at New Orleans Saints

As alluded to above, the theme of this week looks like there’s a lot of short dogs I like, but not enough to bet ATS. The Bengals (2-3) are in a fadeable spot as they’re suffering from the “Super Bowl loser hangover.” As of deadline, it’s unsure if Jameis Winston will return at QB for New Orleans or if Andy Dalton will start again, but either way it’s safe to assume backup QB/TE Taysom Hill (112 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs, 1 TD passing and a fumble recovery on special teams vs. the Seahawks) will continue to have an expanded role. This number’s just too short to get me to make it a Best Bet, but . . .

Best Bet: Pass, but Saints in teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests but Bengals still 55/45 in SU pools). Update: In VSiN.com's "NFL Best Bets" column, I added a 2-team, 6-point teaser on the Saints + 8/Seahawks + 8.5 as a Best Bet.

Doug_Pederson

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

Here’s another short spread, but I can make a case for this dog. For starters, I’m not so sure the right team is favored here. Is everyone’s memory too short to remember that the Jaguars thoroughly dominated the Colts 24-0 just four weeks ago? I know the Jaguars let down a lot of people in their Survivor pools (including yours truly) with their 13-6 loss to the Texans this past Sunday, but it’s not like the Colts are playing that much better after their thrilling – ahem – 12-9 OT win at Denver last Thursday night. I love rematches where the team getting points actually won the previous meeting.

Best Bet: Jaguars + 2.5, but waiting for 3, plus teasers (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in SU and ATS contests – higher at 3 or 3.5 in ATS contests.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Here’s yet another short number with an enticing dog. The Patriots are coming off a 29-0 shutout of the Lions, the NFL’s former No. 1 scoring team, as Bill Belichick once again proved he always has the coaching edge and shouldn’t be taken lightly. And now he faces the Browns, who still have trouble winning close games after falling 30-28 to the Chargers this past Sunday. Several books have gone to Patriots + 3 -120 and that would be my preferred play, though again I’m going to use liberally in teasers.

Best Bet: Patriots + 3 or better, plus in teasers (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests and let’s call for outright upset at 55/45 in SU pools).

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

I’ve already given this out at Jets + 7.5 on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version) and in these columns earlier this week, and hopefully everyone with me grabbed the + 7.5 as it’s down to 7 at a lot of books. The Jets have been surprisingly competitive, first with Joe Flacco and now Zach Wilson, plus this is a fade of the Packers like we did with the Giants in London. Aaron Rodgers and his young receivers are still not in sync and I see no reason the Jets can’t keep this within one score and possibly also upset the Pack.

Best Bet: Jets + 7.5 or 7 (pool play: Jets 67/33 in ATS contests – lower if only offered 7 or 6.5 – but Packers still 65/35 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-5) at New York Giants

Before the season, who would’ve guessed that the 4-1 team in this matchup would be the Giants? But here they are, coming off a 27-22 come-from-behind upset of the Packers as 9-point neutral-site underdogs in London. Teams returning from London games without a bye week are 4-3 SU and 3-3-1 ATS, so that hasn’t been too much of an obstacle in a short sample. The Ravens could very easily be 5-0 except for blowing two big leads to the Dolphins and Bills, but they’re still regarded as one of the NFL’s top teams with Lamar Jackson doing it all on offense with 1,067 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 374 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, so I just can’t pull the trigger on this home dog.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Giants 55/45 on principle in ATS contests, but Ravens 75/25 in SU pools).

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Another home dog, but another case where I don’t feel we’re getting quite enough points to back the underdog. The Dolphins can’t keep their QBs healthy with Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater both going into concussion protocol (though varying reports about if/when they’ve had concussions) and also battling other injuries. I know a lot of bettors will see this as a reason to lay the short number on the Vikings, but beware that the Dolphins usually step up in the heat and humidity of Miami against teams coming from the north (2-0 SU & ATS this season; see Week 1 vs. New England and Week 3 vs. Buffalo).

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests – higher if offered 3.5 – though Vikings still 55/45 in SU pools).

Marcus_Mariota

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons

I also gave this out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and earlier this week in these daily columns, plus bet it at Falcons + 6 at William Hill on Sunday night. There are still some books at 6, so shop around. The 49ers are starting to look like one of the NFC top teams with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over again for Trey Lance, but the Falcons have been surprisingly competitive in all their games this year and are the league’s lone 5-0 ATS team despite a 2-3 SU record. And they should have had a chance at a third straight victory vs. the Bucs this past Sunday except for the egregious roughing-the-passer penalty, though they did still hold to cover in the 21-15 loss. I expect a similar close game here.

Best Bet: Falcons + 5.5 or better (pool play: Falcons 67/33 in ATS contests, though 49ers still 67/33 in SU pools).

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5)

OK, so here’s a line that’s not too short, but I still don’t know if we’re getting enough points on the dog! Now, the Panthers just fired Matt Ruhle and I usually like teams that get a new coach during the middle of the season as the players are motivated to prove it wasn’t their fault (and to make a good impression on the new regime). The Panthers are also going with a new QB, P.J. Walker, as Baker Mayfield is out with a high ankle sprain and might have been losing his starting job anyway. This is a “plug your nose” game, but I’m not going to be able to resist taking the double-digit dog as the defending champion Rams aren’t looking like world-beaters at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS and coming off losses to the 49ers and Rams in which they scored a combined 19 points.

Best Bet: Panthers + 10.5 (pool play: Panthers 67/33 in ATS contests, though Rams still 70/30 in SU pools). Update: A lot of books have lowered this line to 10, but some 10.5 still available, so shop around.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

We’re back to the short prices again, though I’ve also gone on record with the Seahawks as a strong teaser play this week. Heck, they’re looking more attractive as a straight dog play as the line is up to 3 at several books. Geno Smith is doing a better impression of Russell Wilson than Wilson is doing these days. Kyler Murray is one of the most dynamic QBs in the league, but the Cardinals are in that group of teams you just can’t get the winning culture right and pull out close games (Browns, Chargers, Commanders, etc.).

Best Bet: Pass, but Seahawks in teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/25 in ATS contests – though flip to Seahawks at 3 and especially 3.5 – and 60/40 in SU pools). Update: In addition to the teasers mentioned above, I also added a 2-team, 6-point teaser in the VSiN.com "NFL Best Bets" column on Seahawks + 8.5/Chiefs + 8.5 in the afternoon games.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

I know I’m sounding like a broken record here (apologies to younger readers who don’t know what that expression means), but this line is took short to back the dog – and I’m still saying that even though several books have gone to + 3. This is a rematch of a classic AFC playoff game between these two teams that went to OT, though it was cheapened by the Bills not getting a possession in overtime. Both teams are 4-1, but the Bills have the more impressive body of work with the one hiccup in Miami in Week 3. The Chiefs lost the Colts, but also failed to cover in wins over the Chargers in Week 2 and vs. the Raiders this past Monday night. Still, this should be a one-score game, which works for teaser purposes.

Best Bet: Pass, except for Chiefs in teasers (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 67/33 in SU pools).

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia (-4.5)

Despite a scare against the Cardinals, the Eagles are still the league’s last undefeated team at 5-0, though they’re only 3-2 ATS as they failed to cover in their 38-35 win vs. the Lions in Week 1 and the 20-17 win vs. the Cardinals this past Sunday. So, they’re hardly “Invincible” (great movie, by the way). The Cowboys are arguably off to an even better start to the season considering they’re been doing it with Cooper Rush in place of Dak Prescott and a stellar defense that could prove the difference against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense. Even if the Cowboys don’t pull the outright upset (which they’re already done against the Bengals, Giants and Rams), they should be able to stay within a field goal.

Best Bet: Cowboy + 4.5 (pool play: Cowboys 65/35 in ATS contests, though Eagles still 60/40 in SU pools). Update: I liked this at Cowboys + 4.5, but like it even more with the move to + 6.5.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

People are already moaning about getting Russell Wilson and the Broncos in primetime again. It’s tough to back them as a dog against a Chargers team that is starting to learn how to win (though they were lucky to beat the Browns 30-28 on Sunday and didn’t cover earlier spreads of -2.5 and pushing on -2 for some bettors and contest players). Except for allowing 32 points to the Raiders in Week 4, the Denver D has played pretty well in trying to pick up Wilson, so the play here in on the Under, which is set surprisingly high at 45.5 with even a few 46’s out there.  

Best Bet: Under 45.5 or higher (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Jets +10 at Bills.  ​​​View more picks.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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